**Current ensemble forecasts from major models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 15, 2026, most likely in the 18–22°C range.** This consensus underpins the strong market-implied probability (82.5%) for 22°C or below. A warm, humid air mass over northern France is limiting overnight radiative cooling, while increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm risk associated with the post-heatwave transition further moderates nighttime temperatures. Recent model updates show a cooling trend after midweek highs exceeding 35°C, with steering patterns favoring Atlantic-influenced air by the weekend. Official guidance from Météo-France and supplementary sources projects overnight lows near 20–22°C, consistent with historical August variability but tempered by the specific synoptic setup. Traders are pricing in this data-driven outlook, with lower probabilities assigned to warmer outcomes that would require sustained clear skies and stronger southerly flow. New forecast cycles over the next 24–48 hours remain the key variable ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 15 de agosto?
Temperatura mais baixa em Paris no dia 15 de agosto?
22°C ou menos 83%
23°C 10%
24°C 2.9%
25°C 1.2%
NOVO
NOVO
15 ago 2026
22°C ou menos
83%
23°C
10%
24°C
3%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C ou mais
<1%
22°C ou menos 83%
23°C 10%
24°C 2.9%
25°C 1.2%
NOVO
NOVO
15 ago 2026
22°C ou menos
$2,221 Vol.
83%
23°C
$1,406 Vol.
10%
24°C
$468 Vol.
3%
25°C
$339 Vol.
1%
26°C
$187 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$289 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$251 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$277 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$282 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$392 Vol.
<1%
32°C ou mais
$377 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current ensemble forecasts from major models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 15, 2026, most likely in the 18–22°C range.** This consensus underpins the strong market-implied probability (82.5%) for 22°C or below.
A warm, humid air mass over northern France is limiting overnight radiative cooling, while increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm risk associated with the post-heatwave transition further moderates nighttime temperatures. Recent model updates show a cooling trend after midweek highs exceeding 35°C, with steering patterns favoring Atlantic-influenced air by the weekend.
Official guidance from Météo-France and supplementary sources projects overnight lows near 20–22°C, consistent with historical August variability but tempered by the specific synoptic setup. Traders are pricing in this data-driven outlook, with lower probabilities assigned to warmer outcomes that would require sustained clear skies and stronger southerly flow. New forecast cycles over the next 24–48 hours remain the key variable ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$6,489Data de Término
15 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current ensemble forecasts from major models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 15, 2026, most likely in the 18–22°C range.** This consensus underpins the strong market-implied probability (82.5%) for 22°C or below.
A warm, humid air mass over northern France is limiting overnight radiative cooling, while increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm risk associated with the post-heatwave transition further moderates nighttime temperatures. Recent model updates show a cooling trend after midweek highs exceeding 35°C, with steering patterns favoring Atlantic-influenced air by the weekend.
Official guidance from Météo-France and supplementary sources projects overnight lows near 20–22°C, consistent with historical August variability but tempered by the specific synoptic setup. Traders are pricing in this data-driven outlook, with lower probabilities assigned to warmer outcomes that would require sustained clear skies and stronger southerly flow. New forecast cycles over the next 24–48 hours remain the key variable ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,489Data de Término
15 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current ensemble forecasts from major models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 15, 2026, most likely in the 18–22°C range.** This consensus underpins the strong market-implied probability (82.5%) for 22°C or below. A warm, humid air mass over northern France is limiting overnight radiative cooling, while increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm risk associated with the post-heatwave transition further moderates nighttime temperatures. Recent model updates show a cooling trend after midweek highs exceeding 35°C, with steering patterns favoring Atlantic-influenced air by the weekend. Official guidance from Météo-France and supplementary sources projects overnight lows near 20–22°C, consistent with historical August variability but tempered by the specific synoptic setup. Traders are pricing in this data-driven outlook, with lower probabilities assigned to warmer outcomes that would require sustained clear skies and stronger southerly flow. New forecast cycles over the next 24–48 hours remain the key variable ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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