Forecast models from agencies including the National Meteorological Center and international ensembles indicate Shanghai's September 24 minimum will likely fall between 23–25 °C under mostly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and moderate humidity that limits overnight radiative cooling. Recent runs show tight clustering around 24 °C, with minor divergences arising from small differences in predicted cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing that could allow a brief dip to 23 °C or hold the low at 25 °C. Late-September climatology supports these values, as the region transitions away from peak summer warmth without strong cold-air advection. Traders appear to weigh the latest model consensus most heavily, producing closely matched implied probabilities for the two leading outcomes while discounting larger deviations. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours could narrow the remaining uncertainty.