Recent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicates a mild overnight period for Tokyo on September 22, with the lowest temperature most likely settling near 23°C amid lingering warm, humid air and limited radiational cooling. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 23°C (45.5%) and 24°C (34.5%), reflecting trader consensus on current model runs showing southerly flow and cloud cover suppressing typical September nocturnal drops. Historical normals place mid-September lows around 20–22°C, but recent observations of elevated sea-surface temperatures and urban heat retention have kept readings 1–2°C above average. Key variables include the exact timing of any frontal passage or wind shift, with updated model outputs expected within 24–48 hours that could refine probabilities before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Tóquio em 22 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Tóquio em 22 de setembro?
23°C 48%
24°C 35%
22°C 32%
21°C 19%
NOVO
NOVO
22 set 2026
18°C ou menos
4%
19°C
3%
20°C
11%
21°C
19%
22°C
32%
23°C
48%
24°C
35%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C ou mais
2%
23°C 48%
24°C 35%
22°C 32%
21°C 19%
NOVO
NOVO
22 set 2026
18°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
4%
19°C
$0 Vol.
3%
20°C
$0 Vol.
11%
21°C
$0 Vol.
19%
22°C
$0 Vol.
32%
23°C
$195 Vol.
48%
24°C
$6 Vol.
35%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicates a mild overnight period for Tokyo on September 22, with the lowest temperature most likely settling near 23°C amid lingering warm, humid air and limited radiational cooling. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 23°C (45.5%) and 24°C (34.5%), reflecting trader consensus on current model runs showing southerly flow and cloud cover suppressing typical September nocturnal drops. Historical normals place mid-September lows around 20–22°C, but recent observations of elevated sea-surface temperatures and urban heat retention have kept readings 1–2°C above average. Key variables include the exact timing of any frontal passage or wind shift, with updated model outputs expected within 24–48 hours that could refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$201Data de Término
22 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicates a mild overnight period for Tokyo on September 22, with the lowest temperature most likely settling near 23°C amid lingering warm, humid air and limited radiational cooling. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 23°C (45.5%) and 24°C (34.5%), reflecting trader consensus on current model runs showing southerly flow and cloud cover suppressing typical September nocturnal drops. Historical normals place mid-September lows around 20–22°C, but recent observations of elevated sea-surface temperatures and urban heat retention have kept readings 1–2°C above average. Key variables include the exact timing of any frontal passage or wind shift, with updated model outputs expected within 24–48 hours that could refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$201Data de Término
22 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicates a mild overnight period for Tokyo on September 22, with the lowest temperature most likely settling near 23°C amid lingering warm, humid air and limited radiational cooling. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 23°C (45.5%) and 24°C (34.5%), reflecting trader consensus on current model runs showing southerly flow and cloud cover suppressing typical September nocturnal drops. Historical normals place mid-September lows around 20–22°C, but recent observations of elevated sea-surface temperatures and urban heat retention have kept readings 1–2°C above average. Key variables include the exact timing of any frontal passage or wind shift, with updated model outputs expected within 24–48 hours that could refine probabilities before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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