**The high probability assigned to "No" for H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act) being signed into law in 2026 stems primarily from its repeated inability to clear the Senate filibuster.** Versions of the bill, which would mandate documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration and related election administration changes, passed the House in April 2025 (220-208) and again in February 2026 (218-213) under Republican leadership. However, after reaching the Senate—where it was received in April 2025 and debated as the SAVE America Act in early 2026—it stalled without advancing to a final vote. Key barriers include the 60-vote cloture threshold to end debate. With Republicans holding 53 seats, supporters would need at least seven Democratic votes plus unified GOP support, but neither materialized; at least one Republican (Sen. Lisa Murkowski) opposed proceeding. No bipartisan breakthrough or procedural workaround has emerged by mid-2026. While the bill remains a stated priority for House Republicans and the administration, Senate inaction reflects entrenched partisan divides over election policy, the lack of sufficient votes, and competing legislative priorities. Late-session developments or alternative vehicles could theoretically alter the trajectory before year-end, but current dynamics show no viable path to enactment.