With market-implied odds evenly balanced at 50% across anomaly ranges for September 2026, traders see substantial uncertainty in the precise global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial baselines. Primary drivers include the current ENSO state—likely neutral following recent patterns—which modulates sea surface temperatures and atmospheric heat content, alongside ongoing Arctic sea ice trends and Northern Hemisphere summer heat carryover. Official NOAA and NASA monitoring will deliver key September data releases on surface temperatures and model consensus, potentially narrowing the distribution. Historical variability from short-term weather patterns and ocean-atmosphere coupling supports this close contest, with resolution hinging on final monthly averages rather than forecasts alone.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSetembro de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Setembro de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
NOVO
NOVO
9 out 2026
<1,30ºC
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
50%
>1,49ºC
50%
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
NOVO
NOVO
9 out 2026
<1,30ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.With market-implied odds evenly balanced at 50% across anomaly ranges for September 2026, traders see substantial uncertainty in the precise global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial baselines. Primary drivers include the current ENSO state—likely neutral following recent patterns—which modulates sea surface temperatures and atmospheric heat content, alongside ongoing Arctic sea ice trends and Northern Hemisphere summer heat carryover. Official NOAA and NASA monitoring will deliver key September data releases on surface temperatures and model consensus, potentially narrowing the distribution. Historical variability from short-term weather patterns and ocean-atmosphere coupling supports this close contest, with resolution hinging on final monthly averages rather than forecasts alone.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
10 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.With market-implied odds evenly balanced at 50% across anomaly ranges for September 2026, traders see substantial uncertainty in the precise global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial baselines. Primary drivers include the current ENSO state—likely neutral following recent patterns—which modulates sea surface temperatures and atmospheric heat content, alongside ongoing Arctic sea ice trends and Northern Hemisphere summer heat carryover. Official NOAA and NASA monitoring will deliver key September data releases on surface temperatures and model consensus, potentially narrowing the distribution. Historical variability from short-term weather patterns and ocean-atmosphere coupling supports this close contest, with resolution hinging on final monthly averages rather than forecasts alone.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0Data de Término
10 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...With market-implied odds evenly balanced at 50% across anomaly ranges for September 2026, traders see substantial uncertainty in the precise global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial baselines. Primary drivers include the current ENSO state—likely neutral following recent patterns—which modulates sea surface temperatures and atmospheric heat content, alongside ongoing Arctic sea ice trends and Northern Hemisphere summer heat carryover. Official NOAA and NASA monitoring will deliver key September data releases on surface temperatures and model consensus, potentially narrowing the distribution. Historical variability from short-term weather patterns and ocean-atmosphere coupling supports this close contest, with resolution hinging on final monthly averages rather than forecasts alone.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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