Recent observational data from NSIDC and other agencies show 2026 Arctic sea ice extent tracking near the middle of the post-2010 range through late August, with the August average at 5.56 million square kilometers, the seventh-lowest in the satellite record. Persistent cool conditions over the high-latitude Arctic Ocean this summer, contrasted with warmer temperatures in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago, have moderated melt rates compared to record-low years like 2012. Weather variability, including June storms and regional wind patterns, remains the dominant short-term influence on the September minimum, which typically occurs mid-month. These conditions support trader consensus around 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers as the most probable outcome, consistent with recent historical minima and the long-term downward trend from Arctic amplification. Updated NSIDC daily analyses in the coming weeks will refine the final value.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoExtensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?
Extensão mínima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste verão?
4,4-4,6 milhões km² 56.4%
4,2-4,4 milhões km² 40.9%
<4 milhões de km² 2.5%
4,0-4,2 milhões km² 2.3%
$75,974 Vol.
$75,974 Vol.
30 set 2026
<4 milhões de km²
3%
4,0-4,2 milhões km²
2%
4,2-4,4 milhões km²
41%
4,4-4,6 milhões km²
56%
4,6-4,8m km²
2%
4,8-5 milhões km²
5%
5 milhões+ km²
1%
4,4-4,6 milhões km² 56.4%
4,2-4,4 milhões km² 40.9%
<4 milhões de km² 2.5%
4,0-4,2 milhões km² 2.3%
$75,974 Vol.
$75,974 Vol.
30 set 2026
<4 milhões de km²
$33,233 Vol.
3%
4,0-4,2 milhões km²
$7,367 Vol.
2%
4,2-4,4 milhões km²
$3,657 Vol.
41%
4,4-4,6 milhões km²
$3,978 Vol.
56%
4,6-4,8m km²
$8,507 Vol.
2%
4,8-5 milhões km²
$4,251 Vol.
5%
5 milhões+ km²
$14,980 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from NSIDC and other agencies show 2026 Arctic sea ice extent tracking near the middle of the post-2010 range through late August, with the August average at 5.56 million square kilometers, the seventh-lowest in the satellite record. Persistent cool conditions over the high-latitude Arctic Ocean this summer, contrasted with warmer temperatures in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago, have moderated melt rates compared to record-low years like 2012. Weather variability, including June storms and regional wind patterns, remains the dominant short-term influence on the September minimum, which typically occurs mid-month. These conditions support trader consensus around 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers as the most probable outcome, consistent with recent historical minima and the long-term downward trend from Arctic amplification. Updated NSIDC daily analyses in the coming weeks will refine the final value.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$75,974Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from NSIDC and other agencies show 2026 Arctic sea ice extent tracking near the middle of the post-2010 range through late August, with the August average at 5.56 million square kilometers, the seventh-lowest in the satellite record. Persistent cool conditions over the high-latitude Arctic Ocean this summer, contrasted with warmer temperatures in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago, have moderated melt rates compared to record-low years like 2012. Weather variability, including June storms and regional wind patterns, remains the dominant short-term influence on the September minimum, which typically occurs mid-month. These conditions support trader consensus around 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers as the most probable outcome, consistent with recent historical minima and the long-term downward trend from Arctic amplification. Updated NSIDC daily analyses in the coming weeks will refine the final value.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$75,974Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent observational data from NSIDC and other agencies show 2026 Arctic sea ice extent tracking near the middle of the post-2010 range through late August, with the August average at 5.56 million square kilometers, the seventh-lowest in the satellite record. Persistent cool conditions over the high-latitude Arctic Ocean this summer, contrasted with warmer temperatures in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago, have moderated melt rates compared to record-low years like 2012. Weather variability, including June storms and regional wind patterns, remains the dominant short-term influence on the September minimum, which typically occurs mid-month. These conditions support trader consensus around 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers as the most probable outcome, consistent with recent historical minima and the long-term downward trend from Arctic amplification. Updated NSIDC daily analyses in the coming weeks will refine the final value.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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