The tight spread between 19°C (39.5%) and 20°C (38.5%) stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in short-range models for Cape Town’s maximum temperature on September 10. Springtime conditions in the region feature variable Atlantic high-pressure systems and occasional berg winds that can elevate daytime peaks by 1–2°C, while marine layer advection from the Benguela Current tends to moderate values. Recent model runs show slight disagreements on the strength of onshore flow and cloud cover timing, keeping the two leading outcomes nearly tied. Historical September maxima average near 19°C, providing context for the current market-implied odds clustered around that baseline. Updated guidance from national meteorological services is expected within the next 12–24 hours and could shift probabilities if wind or insolation forecasts change.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta na Cidade do Cabo em 10 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta na Cidade do Cabo em 10 de setembro?
19°C 40%
20°C 39%
18°C 11%
21°C 9%
NOVO
NOVO
10 set 2026
14°C ou menos
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
11%
19°C
40%
20°C
39%
21°C
9%
22°C
3%
23°C
3%
24°C ou mais
<1%
19°C 40%
20°C 39%
18°C 11%
21°C 9%
NOVO
NOVO
10 set 2026
14°C ou menos
$185 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$166 Vol.
1%
16°C
$49 Vol.
1%
17°C
$124 Vol.
3%
18°C
$344 Vol.
11%
19°C
$1,587 Vol.
40%
20°C
$971 Vol.
39%
21°C
$2,287 Vol.
9%
22°C
$332 Vol.
3%
23°C
$40 Vol.
3%
24°C ou mais
$392 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight spread between 19°C (39.5%) and 20°C (38.5%) stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in short-range models for Cape Town’s maximum temperature on September 10. Springtime conditions in the region feature variable Atlantic high-pressure systems and occasional berg winds that can elevate daytime peaks by 1–2°C, while marine layer advection from the Benguela Current tends to moderate values. Recent model runs show slight disagreements on the strength of onshore flow and cloud cover timing, keeping the two leading outcomes nearly tied. Historical September maxima average near 19°C, providing context for the current market-implied odds clustered around that baseline. Updated guidance from national meteorological services is expected within the next 12–24 hours and could shift probabilities if wind or insolation forecasts change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 8, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$6,476Data de Término
10 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight spread between 19°C (39.5%) and 20°C (38.5%) stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in short-range models for Cape Town’s maximum temperature on September 10. Springtime conditions in the region feature variable Atlantic high-pressure systems and occasional berg winds that can elevate daytime peaks by 1–2°C, while marine layer advection from the Benguela Current tends to moderate values. Recent model runs show slight disagreements on the strength of onshore flow and cloud cover timing, keeping the two leading outcomes nearly tied. Historical September maxima average near 19°C, providing context for the current market-implied odds clustered around that baseline. Updated guidance from national meteorological services is expected within the next 12–24 hours and could shift probabilities if wind or insolation forecasts change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,476Data de Término
10 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight spread between 19°C (39.5%) and 20°C (38.5%) stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in short-range models for Cape Town’s maximum temperature on September 10. Springtime conditions in the region feature variable Atlantic high-pressure systems and occasional berg winds that can elevate daytime peaks by 1–2°C, while marine layer advection from the Benguela Current tends to moderate values. Recent model runs show slight disagreements on the strength of onshore flow and cloud cover timing, keeping the two leading outcomes nearly tied. Historical September maxima average near 19°C, providing context for the current market-implied odds clustered around that baseline. Updated guidance from national meteorological services is expected within the next 12–24 hours and could shift probabilities if wind or insolation forecasts change.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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