Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at tropical storm strength with 40-45 knot winds east of the Marianas, sits in a highly favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and strong poleward outflow that is enabling consolidation and rapid intensification. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency, supported by aggressive runs from COAMPS-TC, HAFS, and ensemble members reaching 125 knots or higher, has shifted intensity forecasts upward, positioning the system for a peak near or above very strong typhoon thresholds by late August. Model consensus on sustained strengthening through the next 48-72 hours under these conditions underpins the market’s 52% implied probability for very strong typhoon status, while spread among solutions keeps meaningful weight on both standard typhoon and violent typhoon outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuão forte será a tempestade tropical Saudel?
Quão forte será a tempestade tropical Saudel?
Tufão Muito Forte 52%
Tufão 24%
Tufão Violento 22%
Tempestade Tropical Severa 6%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
Tempestade Tropical
4%
Tempestade Tropical Severa
6%
Tufão
24%
Tufão Muito Forte
52%
Tufão Violento
22%
Tufão Muito Forte 52%
Tufão 24%
Tufão Violento 22%
Tempestade Tropical Severa 6%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
Tempestade Tropical
$343 Vol.
4%
Tempestade Tropical Severa
$19 Vol.
6%
Tufão
$49 Vol.
24%
Tufão Muito Forte
$35 Vol.
52%
Tufão Violento
$155 Vol.
22%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at tropical storm strength with 40-45 knot winds east of the Marianas, sits in a highly favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and strong poleward outflow that is enabling consolidation and rapid intensification. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency, supported by aggressive runs from COAMPS-TC, HAFS, and ensemble members reaching 125 knots or higher, has shifted intensity forecasts upward, positioning the system for a peak near or above very strong typhoon thresholds by late August. Model consensus on sustained strengthening through the next 48-72 hours under these conditions underpins the market’s 52% implied probability for very strong typhoon status, while spread among solutions keeps meaningful weight on both standard typhoon and violent typhoon outcomes.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volume
$601Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at tropical storm strength with 40-45 knot winds east of the Marianas, sits in a highly favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and strong poleward outflow that is enabling consolidation and rapid intensification. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency, supported by aggressive runs from COAMPS-TC, HAFS, and ensemble members reaching 125 knots or higher, has shifted intensity forecasts upward, positioning the system for a peak near or above very strong typhoon thresholds by late August. Model consensus on sustained strengthening through the next 48-72 hours under these conditions underpins the market’s 52% implied probability for very strong typhoon status, while spread among solutions keeps meaningful weight on both standard typhoon and violent typhoon outcomes.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Volume
$601Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at tropical storm strength with 40-45 knot winds east of the Marianas, sits in a highly favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and strong poleward outflow that is enabling consolidation and rapid intensification. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency, supported by aggressive runs from COAMPS-TC, HAFS, and ensemble members reaching 125 knots or higher, has shifted intensity forecasts upward, positioning the system for a peak near or above very strong typhoon thresholds by late August. Model consensus on sustained strengthening through the next 48-72 hours under these conditions underpins the market’s 52% implied probability for very strong typhoon status, while spread among solutions keeps meaningful weight on both standard typhoon and violent typhoon outcomes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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