Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs for Madrid on August 23 point to overnight radiative cooling under clear, high-pressure conditions, with minimum temperatures most likely settling near 18–20 °C. Late-August climatology for the Retiro station shows average lows of 18–19 °C, and current steering patterns favor dry, stable air that enhances nocturnal heat loss without significant cloud cover or advection of warmer air. Implied probabilities cluster around 17–19 °C outcomes because these align closely with the consensus forecast range, while probabilities for 20 °C or higher reflect residual uncertainty in model spread and potential for slight warming if winds increase. Updated AEMET briefings and 48-hour model runs scheduled before resolution will determine final positioning.