Recent ensemble guidance from global and regional models, including Roshydromet runs, supports a Moscow maximum near 23°C on August 23, driving the 50% market-implied odds for that outcome. Late-August climatology places typical highs around 22–24°C, with the current setup featuring a moderate southerly flow and limited daytime heating from partial cloud cover. Secondary probabilities cluster at 22°C (22.5%) due to potential timing shifts in any passing frontal boundary that could suppress the peak by 1–2°C. Forecast uncertainty remains modest given the short lead time, though boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects introduce narrow upside risk above 24°C while keeping sub-20°C readings unlikely absent an unexpected cool surge. Updated model outputs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Moscovo a 23 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Moscovo a 23 de agosto?
23°C 50%
22°C 25%
24°C 11%
27°C or higher 7%
NOVO
NOVO
23 ago 2026
17°C or below
3%
18°C
5%
19°C
2%
20°C
5%
21°C
4%
22°C
25%
23°C
50%
24°C
11%
25°C
5%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
7%
23°C 50%
22°C 25%
24°C 11%
27°C or higher 7%
NOVO
NOVO
23 ago 2026
17°C or below
$10 Vol.
3%
18°C
$25 Vol.
5%
19°C
$10 Vol.
2%
20°C
$332 Vol.
5%
21°C
$53 Vol.
4%
22°C
$69 Vol.
25%
23°C
$69 Vol.
50%
24°C
$37 Vol.
11%
25°C
$33 Vol.
5%
26°C
$36 Vol.
3%
27°C or higher
$30 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance from global and regional models, including Roshydromet runs, supports a Moscow maximum near 23°C on August 23, driving the 50% market-implied odds for that outcome. Late-August climatology places typical highs around 22–24°C, with the current setup featuring a moderate southerly flow and limited daytime heating from partial cloud cover. Secondary probabilities cluster at 22°C (22.5%) due to potential timing shifts in any passing frontal boundary that could suppress the peak by 1–2°C. Forecast uncertainty remains modest given the short lead time, though boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects introduce narrow upside risk above 24°C while keeping sub-20°C readings unlikely absent an unexpected cool surge. Updated model outputs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$703Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble guidance from global and regional models, including Roshydromet runs, supports a Moscow maximum near 23°C on August 23, driving the 50% market-implied odds for that outcome. Late-August climatology places typical highs around 22–24°C, with the current setup featuring a moderate southerly flow and limited daytime heating from partial cloud cover. Secondary probabilities cluster at 22°C (22.5%) due to potential timing shifts in any passing frontal boundary that could suppress the peak by 1–2°C. Forecast uncertainty remains modest given the short lead time, though boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects introduce narrow upside risk above 24°C while keeping sub-20°C readings unlikely absent an unexpected cool surge. Updated model outputs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$703Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble guidance from global and regional models, including Roshydromet runs, supports a Moscow maximum near 23°C on August 23, driving the 50% market-implied odds for that outcome. Late-August climatology places typical highs around 22–24°C, with the current setup featuring a moderate southerly flow and limited daytime heating from partial cloud cover. Secondary probabilities cluster at 22°C (22.5%) due to potential timing shifts in any passing frontal boundary that could suppress the peak by 1–2°C. Forecast uncertainty remains modest given the short lead time, though boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects introduce narrow upside risk above 24°C while keeping sub-20°C readings unlikely absent an unexpected cool surge. Updated model outputs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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