Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026, followed by active roadshow preparations targeting a late-October or November listing at roughly $2 trillion valuation, has driven the 96% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent revenue acceleration to a $100 billion-plus annualized run rate and plans to showcase third-quarter results have reinforced trader confidence in a swift completion. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has publicly ruled out a 2026 IPO, citing the need to address AI safety, alignment, and regulatory demands as a private company before pursuing a potential 2027 debut. While Anthropic’s timeline could still slip due to SEC review delays, market volatility, or last-minute governance adjustments, OpenAI’s stated deferral leaves little realistic path for it to list first absent a major reversal in its safety priorities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO IPO da Anthropic ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?
O IPO da Anthropic ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?
Anthropic
96% chance
$383,682 Vol.
$383,682 Vol.
31 dez 2027
Anthropic
96% chance
$383,682 Vol.
$383,682 Vol.
31 dez 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026, followed by active roadshow preparations targeting a late-October or November listing at roughly $2 trillion valuation, has driven the 96% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent revenue acceleration to a $100 billion-plus annualized run rate and plans to showcase third-quarter results have reinforced trader confidence in a swift completion. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has publicly ruled out a 2026 IPO, citing the need to address AI safety, alignment, and regulatory demands as a private company before pursuing a potential 2027 debut. While Anthropic’s timeline could still slip due to SEC review delays, market volatility, or last-minute governance adjustments, OpenAI’s stated deferral leaves little realistic path for it to list first absent a major reversal in its safety priorities.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$383,682Data de Término
1 jan 2028Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026, followed by active roadshow preparations targeting a late-October or November listing at roughly $2 trillion valuation, has driven the 96% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent revenue acceleration to a $100 billion-plus annualized run rate and plans to showcase third-quarter results have reinforced trader confidence in a swift completion. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has publicly ruled out a 2026 IPO, citing the need to address AI safety, alignment, and regulatory demands as a private company before pursuing a potential 2027 debut. While Anthropic’s timeline could still slip due to SEC review delays, market volatility, or last-minute governance adjustments, OpenAI’s stated deferral leaves little realistic path for it to list first absent a major reversal in its safety priorities.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$383,682Data de Término
1 jan 2028Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026, followed by active roadshow preparations targeting a late-October or November listing at roughly $2 trillion valuation, has driven the 96% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent revenue acceleration to a $100 billion-plus annualized run rate and plans to showcase third-quarter results have reinforced trader confidence in a swift completion. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has publicly ruled out a 2026 IPO, citing the need to address AI safety, alignment, and regulatory demands as a private company before pursuing a potential 2027 debut. While Anthropic’s timeline could still slip due to SEC review delays, market volatility, or last-minute governance adjustments, OpenAI’s stated deferral leaves little realistic path for it to list first absent a major reversal in its safety priorities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
A oferta pública inicial da Anthropic ocorrerá em novembro de 2026 (ET)?
48%
Sim
Anthropic ou OpenAI: qual terá o maior valor de mercado no fechamento do IPO?
69%
Anthropic
O valor de mercado da Anthropic será de US$600 bilhões ou mais no fechamento do mercado no dia do IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027?
96%
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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