Monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank remains the dominant driver of EUR/USD positioning into the second half of 2026. As of mid-June, spot trades near 1.157 amid an ECB 25-basis-point hike at its June meeting—the first since 2023—prompted by upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts to 3.0% headline and 2.5% core on energy price pressures. Markets now price additional ECB tightening, while the Fed funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% with expectations for further 25-basis-point cuts later this year that would narrow the rate differential. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East, including recent Iran-Israel tensions and tentative ceasefire signals, have added volatility through oil prices and safe-haven flows, though U.S. growth resilience and fiscal concerns continue to weigh on the dollar. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming U.S. CPI releases and the ECB’s July policy decision, which will shape implied probabilities around year-end thresholds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$75,981 Vol.
31 dez 2026
↑ 1,40
7%
↑ 1,35
9%
↑ 1,30
20%
↑ 1,26
30%
↑ 1,24
33%
↑ 1,22
49%
↑ 1,20
60%
↓ 1,14
76%
↓ 1,12
47%
↓ 1,10
24%
↓ 1,05
10%
↓ 1,00
8%
$75,981 Vol.
↑ 1,40
$1,685 Vol.
7%
↑ 1,35
$1,048 Vol.
9%
↑ 1,30
$736 Vol.
20%
↑ 1,26
$2,892 Vol.
30%
↑ 1,24
$1,986 Vol.
33%
↑ 1,22
$320 Vol.
49%
↑ 1,20
$40,417 Vol.
60%
↓ 1,14
$5,827 Vol.
76%
↓ 1,12
$1,831 Vol.
47%
↓ 1,10
$2,787 Vol.
24%
↓ 1,05
$3,046 Vol.
10%
↓ 1,00
$3,546 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.
This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com low price (“L”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.
This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle low price is equal to or below the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “L” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).Monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank remains the dominant driver of EUR/USD positioning into the second half of 2026. As of mid-June, spot trades near 1.157 amid an ECB 25-basis-point hike at its June meeting—the first since 2023—prompted by upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts to 3.0% headline and 2.5% core on energy price pressures. Markets now price additional ECB tightening, while the Fed funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% with expectations for further 25-basis-point cuts later this year that would narrow the rate differential. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East, including recent Iran-Israel tensions and tentative ceasefire signals, have added volatility through oil prices and safe-haven flows, though U.S. growth resilience and fiscal concerns continue to weigh on the dollar. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming U.S. CPI releases and the ECB’s July policy decision, which will shape implied probabilities around year-end thresholds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.
This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).
Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.
This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).
Mercado Aberto: Feb 4, 2026, 5:34 PM ET
Volume
$75,981Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.
This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com low price (“L”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.
This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle low price is equal to or below the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “L” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).Monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank remains the dominant driver of EUR/USD positioning into the second half of 2026. As of mid-June, spot trades near 1.157 amid an ECB 25-basis-point hike at its June meeting—the first since 2023—prompted by upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts to 3.0% headline and 2.5% core on energy price pressures. Markets now price additional ECB tightening, while the Fed funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% with expectations for further 25-basis-point cuts later this year that would narrow the rate differential. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East, including recent Iran-Israel tensions and tentative ceasefire signals, have added volatility through oil prices and safe-haven flows, though U.S. growth resilience and fiscal concerns continue to weigh on the dollar. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming U.S. CPI releases and the ECB’s July policy decision, which will shape implied probabilities around year-end thresholds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.
This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).
Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday.
This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “H” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).
Volume
$75,981Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank remains the dominant driver of EUR/USD positioning into the second half of 2026. As of mid-June, spot trades near 1.157 amid an ECB 25-basis-point hike at its June meeting—the first since 2023—prompted by upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts to 3.0% headline and 2.5% core on energy price pressures. Markets now price additional ECB tightening, while the Fed funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% with expectations for further 25-basis-point cuts later this year that would narrow the rate differential. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East, including recent Iran-Israel tensions and tentative ceasefire signals, have added volatility through oil prices and safe-haven flows, though U.S. growth resilience and fiscal concerns continue to weigh on the dollar. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming U.S. CPI releases and the ECB’s July policy decision, which will shape implied probabilities around year-end thresholds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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