Andy Burnham took office as UK Prime Minister on 20 July 2026 after succeeding Keir Starmer as Labour leader in an uncontested contest. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly 5% probability to his departure by 31 December 2026. This reflects his recent consolidation of party support, absence of immediate no-confidence threats, and emphasis on devolution, cost-of-living measures, and reindustrialization. Key near-term catalysts include his appearance at the UN General Assembly, potential engagement with the US administration on Ukraine, and delivery of the first budget. The next general election is not required until 2029, and no major parliamentary or leadership challenges have emerged since he formed his cabinet.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЭнди Бернхэм в роли премьер-министра Великобритании...?
Энди Бернхэм в роли премьер-министра Великобритании...?
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря
6%
$9,572 Объем
31 декабря
$7,566 Объем
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham's departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Burnham has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Andy Burnham took office as UK Prime Minister on 20 July 2026 after succeeding Keir Starmer as Labour leader in an uncontested contest. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly 5% probability to his departure by 31 December 2026. This reflects his recent consolidation of party support, absence of immediate no-confidence threats, and emphasis on devolution, cost-of-living measures, and reindustrialization. Key near-term catalysts include his appearance at the UN General Assembly, potential engagement with the US administration on Ukraine, and delivery of the first budget. The next general election is not required until 2029, and no major parliamentary or leadership challenges have emerged since he formed his cabinet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham's departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Burnham has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Burnham has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 20, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Объем
$9,572Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 6:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham's departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Burnham has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Andy Burnham took office as UK Prime Minister on 20 July 2026 after succeeding Keir Starmer as Labour leader in an uncontested contest. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly 5% probability to his departure by 31 December 2026. This reflects his recent consolidation of party support, absence of immediate no-confidence threats, and emphasis on devolution, cost-of-living measures, and reindustrialization. Key near-term catalysts include his appearance at the UN General Assembly, potential engagement with the US administration on Ukraine, and delivery of the first budget. The next general election is not required until 2029, and no major parliamentary or leadership challenges have emerged since he formed his cabinet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham's departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Burnham has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The departure will be considered to be announced when Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Burnham has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$9,572Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 6:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Andy Burnham took office as UK Prime Minister on 20 July 2026 after succeeding Keir Starmer as Labour leader in an uncontested contest. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly 5% probability to his departure by 31 December 2026. This reflects his recent consolidation of party support, absence of immediate no-confidence threats, and emphasis on devolution, cost-of-living measures, and reindustrialization. Key near-term catalysts include his appearance at the UN General Assembly, potential engagement with the US administration on Ukraine, and delivery of the first budget. The next general election is not required until 2029, and no major parliamentary or leadership challenges have emerged since he formed his cabinet.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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