**Expanded eligibility rules and a larger voter base are the main drivers behind the strong trader consensus favoring higher turnout.** Officials project roughly 2.5 million eligible voters for the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election, up from about 2.44 million in the 2023 repeat vote that recorded 62.9% participation. For the first time, 16- and 17-year-olds will be able to vote in the state contest, while increased naturalizations have also added to the rolls. Concurrent district assembly elections further widen the pool by including EU citizens. These structural expansions, combined with an open multi-party race reflected in recent polling, underpin the implied 93.5% probability that participation will exceed the prior benchmark. No offsetting factors such as major disruptions have emerged in the past month to alter this positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВыросла
0% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Выросла
0% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).**Expanded eligibility rules and a larger voter base are the main drivers behind the strong trader consensus favoring higher turnout.** Officials project roughly 2.5 million eligible voters for the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election, up from about 2.44 million in the 2023 repeat vote that recorded 62.9% participation. For the first time, 16- and 17-year-olds will be able to vote in the state contest, while increased naturalizations have also added to the rolls. Concurrent district assembly elections further widen the pool by including EU citizens.
These structural expansions, combined with an open multi-party race reflected in recent polling, underpin the implied 93.5% probability that participation will exceed the prior benchmark. No offsetting factors such as major disruptions have emerged in the past month to alter this positioning.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET
Объем
$1,891Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).**Expanded eligibility rules and a larger voter base are the main drivers behind the strong trader consensus favoring higher turnout.** Officials project roughly 2.5 million eligible voters for the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election, up from about 2.44 million in the 2023 repeat vote that recorded 62.9% participation. For the first time, 16- and 17-year-olds will be able to vote in the state contest, while increased naturalizations have also added to the rolls. Concurrent district assembly elections further widen the pool by including EU citizens.
These structural expansions, combined with an open multi-party race reflected in recent polling, underpin the implied 93.5% probability that participation will exceed the prior benchmark. No offsetting factors such as major disruptions have emerged in the past month to alter this positioning.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Объем
$1,891Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Expanded eligibility rules and a larger voter base are the main drivers behind the strong trader consensus favoring higher turnout.** Officials project roughly 2.5 million eligible voters for the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election, up from about 2.44 million in the 2023 repeat vote that recorded 62.9% participation. For the first time, 16- and 17-year-olds will be able to vote in the state contest, while increased naturalizations have also added to the rolls. Concurrent district assembly elections further widen the pool by including EU citizens. These structural expansions, combined with an open multi-party race reflected in recent polling, underpin the implied 93.5% probability that participation will exceed the prior benchmark. No offsetting factors such as major disruptions have emerged in the past month to alter this positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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