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icon for Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз?

Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз?

icon for Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз?

Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз?

Выросла

98% вероятность
Polymarket

$2,931 Объем

Выросла

98% вероятность
Polymarket

$2,931 Объем

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).Expanded electorate size, driven by increased naturalizations and the first-time inclusion of 16- and 17-year-old voters, raised the pool of eligible participants well above the 2023 repeat election baseline of 62.9%. A fragmented, competitive field featuring strong gains for Die Linke and record AfD support created broad mobilization incentives across ideological lines. Midday turnout figures already exceeded prior comparable periods, reflecting these structural and motivational shifts. Trader consensus at 98.5% for higher participation rests on the absence of offsetting barriers in official preparations. Late developments such as adverse weather on election day or unexpected last-minute scandals could still marginally suppress rates, though historical patterns and pre-vote indicators indicate limited scope for reversal.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.

If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.

The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.

If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Объем
$2,931
Дата окончания
21 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070be91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).Expanded electorate size, driven by increased naturalizations and the first-time inclusion of 16- and 17-year-old voters, raised the pool of eligible participants well above the 2023 repeat election baseline of 62.9%. A fragmented, competitive field featuring strong gains for Die Linke and record AfD support created broad mobilization incentives across ideological lines. Midday turnout figures already exceeded prior comparable periods, reflecting these structural and motivational shifts. Trader consensus at 98.5% for higher participation rests on the absence of offsetting barriers in official preparations. Late developments such as adverse weather on election day or unexpected last-minute scandals could still marginally suppress rates, though historical patterns and pre-vote indicators indicate limited scope for reversal.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.

If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.

The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.

If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
21 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070be91...

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз?» — это рынок прогнозов дневной на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на то, закончится ли цена Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз? выше («Up») или ниже («Down») своей цены открытия в течение окна дневной, указанного в заголовке. Текущая вероятность рынка составляет 100% для «Выросла». Цена 100% означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Цены обновляются в реальном времени по мере реакции трейдеров на движение цены Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз?. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз?» — активный краткосрочный рынок на Polymarket. Объём торгов может быстро расти по мере продвижения окна дневной — входи раньше, чтобы помочь сформировать коэффициенты до закрытия этого окна.

Чтобы торговать на «Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз?», реши, считаешь ли ты, что цена Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз? в полдень ET September 20 будет выше («Up») или ниже («Down»), чем в полдень ET August 6. Купи «Up», если считаешь, что цена вырастет, или «Down», если считаешь, что упадёт. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой исход правильный, каждая акция принесёт $1,00. Если нет — акции будут стоить $0.

Текущая вероятность для «Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз?» составляет 100% для «Выросла», что означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность того, что цена Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз? закроется выросла в этом окне дневной, в 100%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере реакции трейдеров на данные о цене Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз?. За целый день коэффициенты отражают развивающиеся настроения по мере развёртывания ценового движения дня. Заходи чаще или торгуй сейчас, пока окно не закрылось.

Рынок «Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз?» разрешается на основе сравнения цены Выборы в Берлин: явка вверх или вниз? в полдень ET September 20 с ценой в полдень ET August 6, используя цены закрытия минутных свечей Binance BERLIN-STATE-ELECTION-TURNOUT/USDT. Если цена в полдень September 20 выше — исход «Up»; если ниже — «Down»; если равна — рынок разрешается 50-50. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии в разделе «Правила».