**The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, formed after the February 2025 election and operational since May 2025, has established functional decision-making routines.** The coalition committee serves as the main venue for resolving internal differences, shifting emphasis from identity clashes to policy delivery on economic reforms, defense spending, and immigration. Both parties share long experience governing together in prior grand coalitions and face strong incentives to maintain stability amid a fragmented Bundestag where alternatives are limited by the established firewall against the AfD. **SPD electoral weakness, including poor results in early 2026 state elections and national polling around 15%, has created internal pressure on the junior partner but has not triggered public breakdowns or demands to exit.** The government’s razor-thin majority and “functional” rather than visionary character have so far encouraged pragmatic compromise over confrontation. No major legislative crises, leadership changes, or external shocks have emerged in the past year to alter this equilibrium. **Trader consensus reflected in the 84.5% “No” probability aligns with these structural and historical patterns, which historically support coalition durability through at least the midpoint of a term.** Scheduled state elections and ongoing economic reform debates remain the primary near-term variables that could test cohesion before 2027.