DeepSeek's official release of its V4 large language model preview today—featuring V4-Pro (1.6T total parameters, 49B active) and V4-Flash (284B total, 13B active), both with 1M-token context windows—has driven Polymarket traders to price "on or prior to April 24" at 100% implied probability, reflecting confirmed availability via DeepSeek's website, app, API, and open-source weights on HuggingFace. This follows months of delays from February targets, tied to Huawei Ascend chip training optimizations reported in early April, positioning V4 as a competitive frontier model rivaling Claude Opus and GPT-5 on agentic reasoning benchmarks. While trader consensus is near-certain given the verifiable launch, edge cases like disputes over "preview" status versus full production rollout or resolution criteria ambiguities could theoretically prompt minor challenges, though real capital at stake reinforces the skin-in-the-game verdict.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоDeepSeek V4 выпущен на...?
DeepSeek V4 выпущен на...?
On or prior to April 24 100.0%
April 25 <1%
April 26 <1%
April 27 <1%
НОВОЕ
$43,086 Объем
НОВОЕ
$43,086 Объем
15 мая 2026 г.
On or prior to April 24
100%
April 25
<1%
April 26
<1%
April 27
<1%
April 28
<1%
April 29
<1%
April 30
<1%
May 1
<1%
May 2
<1%
May 3
<1%
May 4
<1%
May 5
<1%
May 6
<1%
May 7
<1%
May 8
<1%
May 9
<1%
May 10
<1%
May 11
<1%
May 12
<1%
May 13
<1%
May 14
<1%
May 15
<1%
Not released by May 15
<1%
On or prior to April 24 100.0%
April 25 <1%
April 26 <1%
April 27 <1%
НОВОЕ
$43,086 Объем
НОВОЕ
$43,086 Объем
15 мая 2026 г.
On or prior to April 24
$21,937 Объем
100%
April 25
$243 Объем
<1%
April 26
$200 Объем
<1%
April 27
$242 Объем
<1%
April 28
$619 Объем
<1%
April 29
$535 Объем
<1%
April 30
$624 Объем
<1%
May 1
$807 Объем
<1%
May 2
$633 Объем
<1%
May 3
$654 Объем
<1%
May 4
$653 Объем
<1%
May 5
$672 Объем
<1%
May 6
$1,131 Объем
<1%
May 7
$708 Объем
<1%
May 8
$650 Объем
<1%
May 9
$435 Объем
<1%
May 10
$679 Объем
<1%
May 11
$535 Объем
<1%
May 12
$451 Объем
<1%
May 13
$450 Объем
<1%
May 14
$450 Объем
<1%
May 15
$401 Объем
<1%
Not released by May 15
$10,377 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.DeepSeek's official release of its V4 large language model preview today—featuring V4-Pro (1.6T total parameters, 49B active) and V4-Flash (284B total, 13B active), both with 1M-token context windows—has driven Polymarket traders to price "on or prior to April 24" at 100% implied probability, reflecting confirmed availability via DeepSeek's website, app, API, and open-source weights on HuggingFace. This follows months of delays from February targets, tied to Huawei Ascend chip training optimizations reported in early April, positioning V4 as a competitive frontier model rivaling Claude Opus and GPT-5 on agentic reasoning benchmarks. While trader consensus is near-certain given the verifiable launch, edge cases like disputes over "preview" status versus full production rollout or resolution criteria ambiguities could theoretically prompt minor challenges, though real capital at stake reinforces the skin-in-the-game verdict.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Объем
$43,086Дата окончания
15 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Yes
Окно спора
Окончательный
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.DeepSeek's official release of its V4 large language model preview today—featuring V4-Pro (1.6T total parameters, 49B active) and V4-Flash (284B total, 13B active), both with 1M-token context windows—has driven Polymarket traders to price "on or prior to April 24" at 100% implied probability, reflecting confirmed availability via DeepSeek's website, app, API, and open-source weights on HuggingFace. This follows months of delays from February targets, tied to Huawei Ascend chip training optimizations reported in early April, positioning V4 as a competitive frontier model rivaling Claude Opus and GPT-5 on agentic reasoning benchmarks. While trader consensus is near-certain given the verifiable launch, edge cases like disputes over "preview" status versus full production rollout or resolution criteria ambiguities could theoretically prompt minor challenges, though real capital at stake reinforces the skin-in-the-game verdict.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$43,086Дата окончания
15 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Yes
Окно спора
Окончательный
DeepSeek's official release of its V4 large language model preview today—featuring V4-Pro (1.6T total parameters, 49B active) and V4-Flash (284B total, 13B active), both with 1M-token context windows—has driven Polymarket traders to price "on or prior to April 24" at 100% implied probability, reflecting confirmed availability via DeepSeek's website, app, API, and open-source weights on HuggingFace. This follows months of delays from February targets, tied to Huawei Ascend chip training optimizations reported in early April, positioning V4 as a competitive frontier model rivaling Claude Opus and GPT-5 on agentic reasoning benchmarks. While trader consensus is near-certain given the verifiable launch, edge cases like disputes over "preview" status versus full production rollout or resolution criteria ambiguities could theoretically prompt minor challenges, though real capital at stake reinforces the skin-in-the-game verdict.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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