Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk at 240-259 X posts from April 14-21 (25.5% implied probability), neck-and-neck with 260-279 (21.5%) and flanked by 220-239 and 280-299 (both 15.5%), capturing his volatile yet elevated posting rhythm as a pop culture provocateur. This clustering reflects sustained high activity in recent weeks—62 posts April 9-11 (~31/day), 178 April 3-10 (~25/day)—fueled by a 300+ daily spike on April 7 amid SpaceX IPO speculation and securities drama, with no slowdown over the past 30 days. The razor-thin spread underscores uncertainty from event-driven bursts in Tesla updates, political firestorms, or xAI reveals, against baseline fluctuations in his signature real-time engagement style.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено240-259 28%
260-279 21%
220-239 18%
280-299 15%
НОВОЕ
$197,109 Объем
НОВОЕ
$197,109 Объем
21 апр. 2026 г.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40–59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
1%
200-219
6%
220-239
18%
240-259
28%
260-279
21%
280-299
15%
300-319
7%
320-339
4%
340-359
2%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420–439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480–499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
240-259 28%
260-279 21%
220-239 18%
280-299 15%
НОВОЕ
$197,109 Объем
НОВОЕ
$197,109 Объем
21 апр. 2026 г.
<20
$20,942 Объем
<1%
20-39
$14,862 Объем
<1%
40–59
$16,846 Объем
<1%
60-79
$15,862 Объем
<1%
80-99
$12,646 Объем
<1%
100-119
$13,440 Объем
<1%
120-139
$17,453 Объем
<1%
140-159
$4,126 Объем
1%
160-179
$5,731 Объем
1%
180-199
$2,126 Объем
1%
200-219
$2,684 Объем
6%
220-239
$4,800 Объем
18%
240-259
$9,631 Объем
28%
260-279
$6,523 Объем
21%
280-299
$3,962 Объем
15%
300-319
$1,428 Объем
7%
320-339
$1,063 Объем
4%
340-359
$2,265 Объем
2%
360-379
$1,636 Объем
1%
380-399
$1,499 Объем
1%
400-419
$1,432 Объем
1%
420–439
$1,807 Объем
<1%
440-459
$1,717 Объем
<1%
460-479
$1,807 Объем
<1%
480–499
$1,886 Объем
<1%
500-519
$1,616 Объем
<1%
520-539
$1,726 Объем
<1%
540-559
$2,426 Объем
<1%
560-579
$2,363 Объем
<1%
580+
$25,280 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 14 12:00 PM ET to April 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk at 240-259 X posts from April 14-21 (25.5% implied probability), neck-and-neck with 260-279 (21.5%) and flanked by 220-239 and 280-299 (both 15.5%), capturing his volatile yet elevated posting rhythm as a pop culture provocateur. This clustering reflects sustained high activity in recent weeks—62 posts April 9-11 (~31/day), 178 April 3-10 (~25/day)—fueled by a 300+ daily spike on April 7 amid SpaceX IPO speculation and securities drama, with no slowdown over the past 30 days. The razor-thin spread underscores uncertainty from event-driven bursts in Tesla updates, political firestorms, or xAI reveals, against baseline fluctuations in his signature real-time engagement style.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 14 12:00 PM ET to April 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Объем
$197,109Дата окончания
21 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 14 12:00 PM ET to April 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk at 240-259 X posts from April 14-21 (25.5% implied probability), neck-and-neck with 260-279 (21.5%) and flanked by 220-239 and 280-299 (both 15.5%), capturing his volatile yet elevated posting rhythm as a pop culture provocateur. This clustering reflects sustained high activity in recent weeks—62 posts April 9-11 (~31/day), 178 April 3-10 (~25/day)—fueled by a 300+ daily spike on April 7 amid SpaceX IPO speculation and securities drama, with no slowdown over the past 30 days. The razor-thin spread underscores uncertainty from event-driven bursts in Tesla updates, political firestorms, or xAI reveals, against baseline fluctuations in his signature real-time engagement style.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 14 12:00 PM ET to April 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Объем
$197,109Дата окончания
21 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk at 240-259 X posts from April 14-21 (25.5% implied probability), neck-and-neck with 260-279 (21.5%) and flanked by 220-239 and 280-299 (both 15.5%), capturing his volatile yet elevated posting rhythm as a pop culture provocateur. This clustering reflects sustained high activity in recent weeks—62 posts April 9-11 (~31/day), 178 April 3-10 (~25/day)—fueled by a 300+ daily spike on April 7 amid SpaceX IPO speculation and securities drama, with no slowdown over the past 30 days. The razor-thin spread underscores uncertainty from event-driven bursts in Tesla updates, political firestorms, or xAI reveals, against baseline fluctuations in his signature real-time engagement style.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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