The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on May 16, driven by official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that maximum under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow. This reading falls squarely within mid-May climatological norms, where daytime peaks average 25–27°C during the East Asian monsoon transition period. Numerical weather models issued in the preceding days showed strong consensus on these values with little spread, reflecting minimal convective activity or frontal influences. Any late-stage data revision by the Observatory remains the only realistic scenario that could shift resolution, though such adjustments occur infrequently.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$312,572 Объем
$312,572 Объем
16 мая 2026 г.
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$312,572 Объем
$312,572 Объем
16 мая 2026 г.
19°C or below
$20,243 Объем
No
20°C
$12,423 Объем
No
21°C
$12,291 Объем
No
22°C
$6,633 Объем
No
23°C
$4,802 Объем
No
24°C
$37,336 Объем
No
25°C
$82,493 Объем
Yes
26°C
$43,374 Объем
No
27°C
$40,057 Объем
No
28°C
$25,641 Объем
No
29°C or higher
$27,278 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on May 16, driven by official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that maximum under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow. This reading falls squarely within mid-May climatological norms, where daytime peaks average 25–27°C during the East Asian monsoon transition period. Numerical weather models issued in the preceding days showed strong consensus on these values with little spread, reflecting minimal convective activity or frontal influences. Any late-stage data revision by the Observatory remains the only realistic scenario that could shift resolution, though such adjustments occur infrequently.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Объем
$312,572Дата окончания
16 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on May 16, driven by official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that maximum under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow. This reading falls squarely within mid-May climatological norms, where daytime peaks average 25–27°C during the East Asian monsoon transition period. Numerical weather models issued in the preceding days showed strong consensus on these values with little spread, reflecting minimal convective activity or frontal influences. Any late-stage data revision by the Observatory remains the only realistic scenario that could shift resolution, though such adjustments occur infrequently.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$312,572Дата окончания
16 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on May 16, driven by official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that maximum under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow. This reading falls squarely within mid-May climatological norms, where daytime peaks average 25–27°C during the East Asian monsoon transition period. Numerical weather models issued in the preceding days showed strong consensus on these values with little spread, reflecting minimal convective activity or frontal influences. Any late-stage data revision by the Observatory remains the only realistic scenario that could shift resolution, though such adjustments occur infrequently.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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