Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and timeanddate.com converge on a daily maximum of 25–26°C for Mexico City on August 14, consistent with the closely matched 32% market-implied odds on those outcomes. At the city’s 2,240-meter elevation, afternoon convection typical of the August rainy season often caps daytime peaks through cloud cover and showers, while morning insolation drives the high. Minor differences among 24–27°C bins reflect uncertainty in exact rain timing, steering patterns, and model spread, with historical August averages near 24°C providing climatological context. Updated National Meteorological Service guidance and next-day observations will refine resolution.