Persistent marine layer and onshore westerly flow are keeping San Francisco temperatures suppressed well below the 70.7°F historical average high for September 20. Official National Weather Service forecasts and real-time observations from multiple stations point to a daily maximum in the low-to-mid 60s°F under mostly cloudy skies, with current readings around 60-63°F and little afternoon warming expected. This setup explains the strong market concentration on 64-65°F (57% implied probability) and 62-63°F (24%), as traders price in the consensus from NWS model guidance and station data showing no break in the cool, stable pattern. Key resolution hinges on the official highest recorded temperature by midnight local time.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Сан-Франциско 20 сентября?
Самая высокая температура в Сан-Франциско 20 сентября?
64-65°F 61%
62-63°F 31%
66-67°F 8%
68-69°F 6%
$36,677 Объем
$36,677 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
59°F или ниже
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
27%
64-65°F
61%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F или выше
<1%
64-65°F 61%
62-63°F 31%
66-67°F 8%
68-69°F 6%
$36,677 Объем
$36,677 Объем
20 сент. 2026 г.
59°F или ниже
$1,798 Объем
<1%
60-61°F
$3,579 Объем
<1%
62-63°F
$6,160 Объем
27%
64-65°F
$4,597 Объем
61%
66-67°F
$3,325 Объем
8%
68-69°F
$3,416 Объем
6%
70-71°F
$3,567 Объем
<1%
72-73°F
$5,492 Объем
1%
74-75°F
$3,518 Объем
<1%
76-77°F
$1,105 Объем
<1%
78°F или выше
$121 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer and onshore westerly flow are keeping San Francisco temperatures suppressed well below the 70.7°F historical average high for September 20. Official National Weather Service forecasts and real-time observations from multiple stations point to a daily maximum in the low-to-mid 60s°F under mostly cloudy skies, with current readings around 60-63°F and little afternoon warming expected. This setup explains the strong market concentration on 64-65°F (57% implied probability) and 62-63°F (24%), as traders price in the consensus from NWS model guidance and station data showing no break in the cool, stable pattern. Key resolution hinges on the official highest recorded temperature by midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 18, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Объем
$36,677Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2026, 7:56 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer and onshore westerly flow are keeping San Francisco temperatures suppressed well below the 70.7°F historical average high for September 20. Official National Weather Service forecasts and real-time observations from multiple stations point to a daily maximum in the low-to-mid 60s°F under mostly cloudy skies, with current readings around 60-63°F and little afternoon warming expected. This setup explains the strong market concentration on 64-65°F (57% implied probability) and 62-63°F (24%), as traders price in the consensus from NWS model guidance and station data showing no break in the cool, stable pattern. Key resolution hinges on the official highest recorded temperature by midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$36,677Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2026, 7:56 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Persistent marine layer and onshore westerly flow are keeping San Francisco temperatures suppressed well below the 70.7°F historical average high for September 20. Official National Weather Service forecasts and real-time observations from multiple stations point to a daily maximum in the low-to-mid 60s°F under mostly cloudy skies, with current readings around 60-63°F and little afternoon warming expected. This setup explains the strong market concentration on 64-65°F (57% implied probability) and 62-63°F (24%), as traders price in the consensus from NWS model guidance and station data showing no break in the cool, stable pattern. Key resolution hinges on the official highest recorded temperature by midnight local time.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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