Official intensity analyses from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center confirm Tropical Storm Saudel reached very strong typhoon status in late August 2026, with a central pressure near 940 hPa and maximum sustained winds of approximately 90 knots. This classification aligns with peak observations during its northwestward track across the Philippine Sea and near the Ryukyu Islands, where favorable ocean heat content and low wind shear supported rapid intensification before environmental factors caused weakening. Trader consensus at 100% on very strong typhoon reflects this verified peak, consistent with historical analogs for Western Pacific systems. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain limited but could include post-season reanalysis adjustments or differing agency thresholds for the very strong category.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНасколько сильным будет тропический шторм «Саудел»?
Насколько сильным будет тропический шторм «Саудел»?
Очень сильный тайфун 100.0%
Тропический шторм <1%
Сильный тропический шторм <1%
Тайфун <1%
$10,792 Объем
$10,792 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
Тропический шторм
Нет
Сильный тропический шторм
Нет
Тайфун
Нет
Очень сильный тайфун
Да
Яростный тайфун
Нет
Очень сильный тайфун 100.0%
Тропический шторм <1%
Сильный тропический шторм <1%
Тайфун <1%
$10,792 Объем
$10,792 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
Тропический шторм
$663 Объем
Нет
Сильный тропический шторм
$606 Объем
Нет
Тайфун
$1,570 Объем
Нет
Очень сильный тайфун
$3,741 Объем
Да
Яростный тайфун
$4,211 Объем
Нет
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Official intensity analyses from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center confirm Tropical Storm Saudel reached very strong typhoon status in late August 2026, with a central pressure near 940 hPa and maximum sustained winds of approximately 90 knots. This classification aligns with peak observations during its northwestward track across the Philippine Sea and near the Ryukyu Islands, where favorable ocean heat content and low wind shear supported rapid intensification before environmental factors caused weakening. Trader consensus at 100% on very strong typhoon reflects this verified peak, consistent with historical analogs for Western Pacific systems. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain limited but could include post-season reanalysis adjustments or differing agency thresholds for the very strong category.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Объем
$10,792Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Official intensity analyses from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center confirm Tropical Storm Saudel reached very strong typhoon status in late August 2026, with a central pressure near 940 hPa and maximum sustained winds of approximately 90 knots. This classification aligns with peak observations during its northwestward track across the Philippine Sea and near the Ryukyu Islands, where favorable ocean heat content and low wind shear supported rapid intensification before environmental factors caused weakening. Trader consensus at 100% on very strong typhoon reflects this verified peak, consistent with historical analogs for Western Pacific systems. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain limited but could include post-season reanalysis adjustments or differing agency thresholds for the very strong category.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Объем
$10,792Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Official intensity analyses from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center confirm Tropical Storm Saudel reached very strong typhoon status in late August 2026, with a central pressure near 940 hPa and maximum sustained winds of approximately 90 knots. This classification aligns with peak observations during its northwestward track across the Philippine Sea and near the Ryukyu Islands, where favorable ocean heat content and low wind shear supported rapid intensification before environmental factors caused weakening. Trader consensus at 100% on very strong typhoon reflects this verified peak, consistent with historical analogs for Western Pacific systems. Realistic challenges to this outcome remain limited but could include post-season reanalysis adjustments or differing agency thresholds for the very strong category.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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