**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives CPI(M)-led LDF a narrow edge at 53% over INC-led UDF at 46.5% to emerge as the largest party in Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly, reflecting a razor-thin bipolar contest after April 9 single-phase polling with 78% voter turnout.** Pre-poll surveys like Manorama News-C Voter projected UDF gains in 69 seats amid anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, but others showed overlapping LDF-UDF projections around 60-70 seats each, underscoring no clear wave and LDF's organizational strength offsetting welfare scheme fatigue. The race stays tight due to 20 swing constituencies in central Kerala, minority vote consolidation for UDF allies like IUML, and NDA's potential 3-11 seats splitting LDF votes. Separation could arise from May 4 vote counting trends, post-poll negotiations, or unexpected turnout data from key battlegrounds like Nemom and Ambalappuzha.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Законодательное собрание Кералы
Победитель выборов в Законодательное собрание Кералы
КПИ(м) 48%
ИНК 47%
БСП <1%
КПИ <1%
$280,272 Объем
$280,272 Объем
9 апр. 2026 г.
КПИ(м)
52%
ИНК
47%
БСП
<1%
КПИ
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
РСП
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
БДП
<1%
НКП
<1%
IUML
<1%
КПИ(м) 48%
ИНК 47%
БСП <1%
КПИ <1%
$280,272 Объем
$280,272 Объем
9 апр. 2026 г.
КПИ(м)
$35,262 Объем
52%
ИНК
$34,778 Объем
47%
БСП
$12,297 Объем
<1%
КПИ
$28,084 Объем
<1%
JD(S)
$24,403 Объем
<1%
РСП
$13,090 Объем
<1%
KEC(M)
$13,613 Объем
<1%
БДП
$57,830 Объем
<1%
НКП
$45,976 Объем
<1%
IUML
$14,939 Объем
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives CPI(M)-led LDF a narrow edge at 53% over INC-led UDF at 46.5% to emerge as the largest party in Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly, reflecting a razor-thin bipolar contest after April 9 single-phase polling with 78% voter turnout.** Pre-poll surveys like Manorama News-C Voter projected UDF gains in 69 seats amid anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, but others showed overlapping LDF-UDF projections around 60-70 seats each, underscoring no clear wave and LDF's organizational strength offsetting welfare scheme fatigue. The race stays tight due to 20 swing constituencies in central Kerala, minority vote consolidation for UDF allies like IUML, and NDA's potential 3-11 seats splitting LDF votes. Separation could arise from May 4 vote counting trends, post-poll negotiations, or unexpected turnout data from key battlegrounds like Nemom and Ambalappuzha.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Открытие рынка: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Объем
$280,272Дата окончания
9 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives CPI(M)-led LDF a narrow edge at 53% over INC-led UDF at 46.5% to emerge as the largest party in Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly, reflecting a razor-thin bipolar contest after April 9 single-phase polling with 78% voter turnout.** Pre-poll surveys like Manorama News-C Voter projected UDF gains in 69 seats amid anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, but others showed overlapping LDF-UDF projections around 60-70 seats each, underscoring no clear wave and LDF's organizational strength offsetting welfare scheme fatigue. The race stays tight due to 20 swing constituencies in central Kerala, minority vote consolidation for UDF allies like IUML, and NDA's potential 3-11 seats splitting LDF votes. Separation could arise from May 4 vote counting trends, post-poll negotiations, or unexpected turnout data from key battlegrounds like Nemom and Ambalappuzha.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Объем
$280,272Дата окончания
9 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives CPI(M)-led LDF a narrow edge at 53% over INC-led UDF at 46.5% to emerge as the largest party in Kerala's 140-seat Legislative Assembly, reflecting a razor-thin bipolar contest after April 9 single-phase polling with 78% voter turnout.** Pre-poll surveys like Manorama News-C Voter projected UDF gains in 69 seats amid anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, but others showed overlapping LDF-UDF projections around 60-70 seats each, underscoring no clear wave and LDF's organizational strength offsetting welfare scheme fatigue. The race stays tight due to 20 swing constituencies in central Kerala, minority vote consolidation for UDF allies like IUML, and NDA's potential 3-11 seats splitting LDF votes. Separation could arise from May 4 vote counting trends, post-poll negotiations, or unexpected turnout data from key battlegrounds like Nemom and Ambalappuzha.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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