Trader consensus favors Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga as frontrunners for second place in Peru's April 2026 presidential first round, with Fujimori at 47.5% implied probability and López Aliaga at 46%, reflecting fragmented right-wing support behind projected leader Antauro Humala (leading polls at 20-28%). Recent Ipsos and Datum surveys show Fujimori's established fujimorista base slightly ahead of López Aliaga's ultraconservative surge amid public discontent with President Boluarte's 85% disapproval. The race stays tight due to overlapping voter appeals and undecideds (30-40% in polls), but separation could emerge from candidate consolidations, scandals, or pre-campaign debates by early 2025 registration deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоCarlos Espá 72%
Keiko Fujimori 48%
Rafael López Aliaga 46%
Alfonso López Chau 39%

Carlos Espá
72%

Keiko Fujimori
48%

Rafael López Aliaga
46%

Alfonso López Chau
39%

José Luna
37%

Jorge Nieto
37%

José Williams
37%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
37%

Roberto Chiabra
37%

Fernando Olivera
37%

Marisol Pérez Tello
37%

Mario Vizcarra
37%

Enrique Valderrama
37%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
37%

Fiorella Molinelli
37%

Vladimir Cerrón
37%

Wolfgang Grozo
37%

Mesías Guevara
36%

George Forsyth
36%

César Acuña
36%

Ricardo Belmont
36%

Carlos Álvarez
36%

Yonhy Lescano
36%
Carlos Espá 72%
Keiko Fujimori 48%
Rafael López Aliaga 46%
Alfonso López Chau 39%

Carlos Espá
72%

Keiko Fujimori
48%

Rafael López Aliaga
46%

Alfonso López Chau
39%

José Luna
37%

Jorge Nieto
37%

José Williams
37%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
37%

Roberto Chiabra
37%

Fernando Olivera
37%

Marisol Pérez Tello
37%

Mario Vizcarra
37%

Enrique Valderrama
37%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
37%

Fiorella Molinelli
37%

Vladimir Cerrón
37%

Wolfgang Grozo
37%

Mesías Guevara
36%

George Forsyth
36%

César Acuña
36%

Ricardo Belmont
36%

Carlos Álvarez
36%

Yonhy Lescano
36%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga as frontrunners for second place in Peru's April 2026 presidential first round, with Fujimori at 47.5% implied probability and López Aliaga at 46%, reflecting fragmented right-wing support behind projected leader Antauro Humala (leading polls at 20-28%). Recent Ipsos and Datum surveys show Fujimori's established fujimorista base slightly ahead of López Aliaga's ultraconservative surge amid public discontent with President Boluarte's 85% disapproval. The race stays tight due to overlapping voter appeals and undecideds (30-40% in polls), but separation could emerge from candidate consolidations, scandals, or pre-campaign debates by early 2025 registration deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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