Recent forecasts from regional models indicate persistent high pressure and mostly clear skies over Chongqing through September 7, supporting daytime highs near 35–38 °C and overnight radiative cooling that typically yields minimums of 25–28 °C. Trader emphasis on the 22 °C-or-below outcome (42.5 %) versus clustered mid-20s probabilities reflects uncertainty in exact nocturnal boundary-layer mixing, local terrain effects within the municipality, and minor model spread on dew-point recovery or light winds. Historical September lows average near 22–24 °C, yet current conditions favor a narrower diurnal range than early-month norms, keeping outcomes above 23 °C more likely absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance and evening model runs on September 6 will clarify the final minimum threshold.