Recent forecast model runs for Moscow show considerable uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling on September 24, with a passing frontal system bringing variable cloud cover, showers, and shifting winds from the southeast to south. Official guidance from sources like GFS indicates daytime highs near 18–21 °C but minimums ranging from roughly 9–12 °C under clearer breaks to potentially lower if persistent rain and stronger winds suppress cooling. This spread drives the near-even split in market-implied odds between 6 °C or below and 16 °C or higher, as traders weigh the latest ensemble outputs and historical analogs for late-September Moscow minima against the risk of rapid clearing that could allow sharper drops. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely resolve the key variables of cloud persistence and wind speed.