Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a lowest temperature of 64-65°F (34.5% implied probability) for New York City on April 15, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts showing unseasonably warm overnight lows in the mid-60s amid a ridge of high pressure and southerly winds advecting humid, mild air from the south. Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs over the past 24 hours reinforce this with consensus highs near 85-90°F limiting nocturnal cooling, far above the climatological April 15 low of around 45°F at Central Park. High uncertainty in the broad distribution stems from variables like evening cloud cover—which could trap heat and push lows toward 66-67°F or higher—and light winds potentially allowing more radiational cooling to 62°F or below if skies clear fully. NWS hourly updates expected overnight will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution based on official Central Park observations.