Latest ensemble forecasts from major global models show minimum temperatures in Warsaw on August 27 clustering around 11–12°C, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and efficient nighttime radiative cooling typical of late-summer high-pressure influence. This setup produces the narrow spread reflected in closely matched market-implied odds for 11°C and 12°C. Variability arises mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture, which can alter cooling rates by 1–2°C; a slightly stronger northerly flow or increased low-level cloud would favor the lower tail near 9–10°C or below. Historical climatology places average August overnight lows near 12°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability mass across the 7–14°C range ahead of final observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology.