Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s ongoing international schedule, including his arrival in New York for the UN General Assembly on September 23, reflects continued institutional backing and operational authority within Iran’s political system. Recent reporting shows no verified moves toward detention or formal charges, with prior resignation rumors already addressed publicly by the president months earlier. Traders assign 99.4% probability to no arrest by September 28 because short-term domestic power dynamics have not produced the factional rupture or security action needed for such an outcome. Plausible shifts could still arise from rapid internal leadership disputes or external events forcing sudden realignments before the deadline, though current evidence indicates these remain low-probability developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
<1% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
28 сент. 2026 г.
Да
<1% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
28 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Masoud Pezeshkian is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Pezeshkian is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s ongoing international schedule, including his arrival in New York for the UN General Assembly on September 23, reflects continued institutional backing and operational authority within Iran’s political system. Recent reporting shows no verified moves toward detention or formal charges, with prior resignation rumors already addressed publicly by the president months earlier. Traders assign 99.4% probability to no arrest by September 28 because short-term domestic power dynamics have not produced the factional rupture or security action needed for such an outcome. Plausible shifts could still arise from rapid internal leadership disputes or external events forcing sudden realignments before the deadline, though current evidence indicates these remain low-probability developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Masoud Pezeshkian is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Pezeshkian is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Pezeshkian is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 22, 2026, 5:02 PM ET
Объем
$1,230Дата окончания
29 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 22, 2026, 5:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Masoud Pezeshkian is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Pezeshkian is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s ongoing international schedule, including his arrival in New York for the UN General Assembly on September 23, reflects continued institutional backing and operational authority within Iran’s political system. Recent reporting shows no verified moves toward detention or formal charges, with prior resignation rumors already addressed publicly by the president months earlier. Traders assign 99.4% probability to no arrest by September 28 because short-term domestic power dynamics have not produced the factional rupture or security action needed for such an outcome. Plausible shifts could still arise from rapid internal leadership disputes or external events forcing sudden realignments before the deadline, though current evidence indicates these remain low-probability developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Masoud Pezeshkian is arrested between market creation and September 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Pezeshkian is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Pezeshkian is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) he is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Any arrest occurring before market creation will not qualify.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,230Дата окончания
29 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 22, 2026, 5:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s ongoing international schedule, including his arrival in New York for the UN General Assembly on September 23, reflects continued institutional backing and operational authority within Iran’s political system. Recent reporting shows no verified moves toward detention or formal charges, with prior resignation rumors already addressed publicly by the president months earlier. Traders assign 99.4% probability to no arrest by September 28 because short-term domestic power dynamics have not produced the factional rupture or security action needed for such an outcome. Plausible shifts could still arise from rapid internal leadership disputes or external events forcing sudden realignments before the deadline, though current evidence indicates these remain low-probability developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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