**Recent FBI execution of search warrants on former Rep. Eric Swalwell has intensified a federal civil rights investigation tied to sexual misconduct allegations, yet traders assign only about 19% odds of an arrest by September 30, 2026.** In mid-August 2026, agents seized Swalwell’s electronic devices at San Francisco International Airport and searched his Washington home under warrants citing potential violations of 18 U.S.C. § 242 and related offenses. The probe stems from accusations by multiple women, including a former staffer, that surfaced publicly in spring 2026 and prompted his April resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race. Separate criminal inquiries continue in Manhattan and Los Angeles, while the House Ethics Committee had previously examined related claims. Federal investigations of this nature, particularly those involving former members of Congress and civil rights statutes, routinely involve extended evidence review after device seizures. No charges or arrest have been announced despite the warrants’ execution only days ago, and historical patterns show that many such probes do not produce swift arrests. The compressed resolution window through late September further limits the likelihood, supporting the market’s strong consensus against an arrest occurring in time.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
19% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
19% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent FBI execution of search warrants on former Rep. Eric Swalwell has intensified a federal civil rights investigation tied to sexual misconduct allegations, yet traders assign only about 19% odds of an arrest by September 30, 2026.**
In mid-August 2026, agents seized Swalwell’s electronic devices at San Francisco International Airport and searched his Washington home under warrants citing potential violations of 18 U.S.C. § 242 and related offenses. The probe stems from accusations by multiple women, including a former staffer, that surfaced publicly in spring 2026 and prompted his April resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race. Separate criminal inquiries continue in Manhattan and Los Angeles, while the House Ethics Committee had previously examined related claims.
Federal investigations of this nature, particularly those involving former members of Congress and civil rights statutes, routinely involve extended evidence review after device seizures. No charges or arrest have been announced despite the warrants’ execution only days ago, and historical patterns show that many such probes do not produce swift arrests. The compressed resolution window through late September further limits the likelihood, supporting the market’s strong consensus against an arrest occurring in time.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Объем
$22Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent FBI execution of search warrants on former Rep. Eric Swalwell has intensified a federal civil rights investigation tied to sexual misconduct allegations, yet traders assign only about 19% odds of an arrest by September 30, 2026.**
In mid-August 2026, agents seized Swalwell’s electronic devices at San Francisco International Airport and searched his Washington home under warrants citing potential violations of 18 U.S.C. § 242 and related offenses. The probe stems from accusations by multiple women, including a former staffer, that surfaced publicly in spring 2026 and prompted his April resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race. Separate criminal inquiries continue in Manhattan and Los Angeles, while the House Ethics Committee had previously examined related claims.
Federal investigations of this nature, particularly those involving former members of Congress and civil rights statutes, routinely involve extended evidence review after device seizures. No charges or arrest have been announced despite the warrants’ execution only days ago, and historical patterns show that many such probes do not produce swift arrests. The compressed resolution window through late September further limits the likelihood, supporting the market’s strong consensus against an arrest occurring in time.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$22Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent FBI execution of search warrants on former Rep. Eric Swalwell has intensified a federal civil rights investigation tied to sexual misconduct allegations, yet traders assign only about 19% odds of an arrest by September 30, 2026.** In mid-August 2026, agents seized Swalwell’s electronic devices at San Francisco International Airport and searched his Washington home under warrants citing potential violations of 18 U.S.C. § 242 and related offenses. The probe stems from accusations by multiple women, including a former staffer, that surfaced publicly in spring 2026 and prompted his April resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race. Separate criminal inquiries continue in Manhattan and Los Angeles, while the House Ethics Committee had previously examined related claims. Federal investigations of this nature, particularly those involving former members of Congress and civil rights statutes, routinely involve extended evidence review after device seizures. No charges or arrest have been announced despite the warrants’ execution only days ago, and historical patterns show that many such probes do not produce swift arrests. The compressed resolution window through late September further limits the likelihood, supporting the market’s strong consensus against an arrest occurring in time.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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