Trader consensus favoring "No" at 73% reflects the market's narrow resolution criteria: a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous United States, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or a major meteor impact exceeding 10 kilotons—all within 2026. These thresholds occur infrequently; historical records show U.S. Category 5 landfalls averaging roughly once per decade, while great earthquakes and super-eruptions are even rarer on annual timescales. As of early June, the Atlantic hurricane season has just begun under National Hurricane Center monitoring, with initial seasonal outlooks showing no anomalous signals that would elevate the odds of rapid intensification or direct U.S. landfall by a Category 5 system. Seismic and volcanic monitoring networks likewise report no immediate precursors meeting the defined thresholds. Upcoming peak-season model runs and real-time advisories through November will provide the clearest near-term updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$222,275 Объем
$222,275 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$222,275 Объем
$222,275 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 73% reflects the market's narrow resolution criteria: a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous United States, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or a major meteor impact exceeding 10 kilotons—all within 2026. These thresholds occur infrequently; historical records show U.S. Category 5 landfalls averaging roughly once per decade, while great earthquakes and super-eruptions are even rarer on annual timescales. As of early June, the Atlantic hurricane season has just begun under National Hurricane Center monitoring, with initial seasonal outlooks showing no anomalous signals that would elevate the odds of rapid intensification or direct U.S. landfall by a Category 5 system. Seismic and volcanic monitoring networks likewise report no immediate precursors meeting the defined thresholds. Upcoming peak-season model runs and real-time advisories through November will provide the clearest near-term updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$222,275Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 73% reflects the market's narrow resolution criteria: a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous United States, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or a major meteor impact exceeding 10 kilotons—all within 2026. These thresholds occur infrequently; historical records show U.S. Category 5 landfalls averaging roughly once per decade, while great earthquakes and super-eruptions are even rarer on annual timescales. As of early June, the Atlantic hurricane season has just begun under National Hurricane Center monitoring, with initial seasonal outlooks showing no anomalous signals that would elevate the odds of rapid intensification or direct U.S. landfall by a Category 5 system. Seismic and volcanic monitoring networks likewise report no immediate precursors meeting the defined thresholds. Upcoming peak-season model runs and real-time advisories through November will provide the clearest near-term updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$222,289Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 73% reflects the market's narrow resolution criteria: a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous United States, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or a major meteor impact exceeding 10 kilotons—all within 2026. These thresholds occur infrequently; historical records show U.S. Category 5 landfalls averaging roughly once per decade, while great earthquakes and super-eruptions are even rarer on annual timescales. As of early June, the Atlantic hurricane season has just begun under National Hurricane Center monitoring, with initial seasonal outlooks showing no anomalous signals that would elevate the odds of rapid intensification or direct U.S. landfall by a Category 5 system. Seismic and volcanic monitoring networks likewise report no immediate precursors meeting the defined thresholds. Upcoming peak-season model runs and real-time advisories through November will provide the clearest near-term updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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