Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% for this narrowly defined market because no Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike has occurred through mid-June 2026. Official monitoring from the National Hurricane Center, USGS, and Smithsonian shows only routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity, with no events meeting the resolution thresholds. Developing El Niño conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not driven the rapid intensification or tectonic/volcanic triggers needed for such extremes, consistent with historical baselines of one qualifying event every several years or longer. With half the year ahead, new NOAA seasonal outlooks and real-time alerts remain key variables that could shift sentiment if an outlier develops.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$223,389 Объем
$223,389 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$223,389 Объем
$223,389 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% for this narrowly defined market because no Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike has occurred through mid-June 2026. Official monitoring from the National Hurricane Center, USGS, and Smithsonian shows only routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity, with no events meeting the resolution thresholds. Developing El Niño conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not driven the rapid intensification or tectonic/volcanic triggers needed for such extremes, consistent with historical baselines of one qualifying event every several years or longer. With half the year ahead, new NOAA seasonal outlooks and real-time alerts remain key variables that could shift sentiment if an outlier develops.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$223,389Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% for this narrowly defined market because no Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike has occurred through mid-June 2026. Official monitoring from the National Hurricane Center, USGS, and Smithsonian shows only routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity, with no events meeting the resolution thresholds. Developing El Niño conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not driven the rapid intensification or tectonic/volcanic triggers needed for such extremes, consistent with historical baselines of one qualifying event every several years or longer. With half the year ahead, new NOAA seasonal outlooks and real-time alerts remain key variables that could shift sentiment if an outlier develops.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$223,389Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% for this narrowly defined market because no Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike has occurred through mid-June 2026. Official monitoring from the National Hurricane Center, USGS, and Smithsonian shows only routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season activity, with no events meeting the resolution thresholds. Developing El Niño conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not driven the rapid intensification or tectonic/volcanic triggers needed for such extremes, consistent with historical baselines of one qualifying event every several years or longer. With half the year ahead, new NOAA seasonal outlooks and real-time alerts remain key variables that could shift sentiment if an outlier develops.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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