NOAA’s May outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1, assigns a 55% probability of below-normal activity, forecasting just 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes—well under the long-term average. This subdued expectation, tied to atmospheric conditions favoring weaker steering patterns and limited intensification, has anchored trader sentiment toward the “No” outcome at 77.5% implied probability. Early-year U.S. wildfire counts and acreage burned sit above 10-year averages through mid-June, yet most remain below billion-dollar thresholds, while confirmed earthquakes and floods through June have produced localized rather than widespread catastrophic impacts. Historical baselines show roughly 20–25 U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate events annually in recent years, but current model consensus and the quiet pre-season hurricane outlook reduce near-term odds of crossing market-resolution criteria such as category thresholds or aggregate damage levels. Traders will monitor NOAA’s August update and peak-season model runs for any shift in steering or sea-surface temperatures that could alter these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$223,410 Объем
$223,410 Объем
Да
$223,410 Объем
$223,410 Объем
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s May outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1, assigns a 55% probability of below-normal activity, forecasting just 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes—well under the long-term average. This subdued expectation, tied to atmospheric conditions favoring weaker steering patterns and limited intensification, has anchored trader sentiment toward the “No” outcome at 77.5% implied probability. Early-year U.S. wildfire counts and acreage burned sit above 10-year averages through mid-June, yet most remain below billion-dollar thresholds, while confirmed earthquakes and floods through June have produced localized rather than widespread catastrophic impacts. Historical baselines show roughly 20–25 U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate events annually in recent years, but current model consensus and the quiet pre-season hurricane outlook reduce near-term odds of crossing market-resolution criteria such as category thresholds or aggregate damage levels. Traders will monitor NOAA’s August update and peak-season model runs for any shift in steering or sea-surface temperatures that could alter these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы