Current monitoring from agencies including NOAA, USGS, and the National Hurricane Center shows no active major threats meeting typical resolution thresholds for large-scale events in the second half of 2026. Stable atmospheric patterns, below-average tropical cyclone activity so far this season, and seismic data indicating typical background rates rather than elevated risk support trader consensus favoring the "No" outcome at 79.5% implied probability. While smaller floods, wildfires, and storms have occurred, model consensus and historical analogs point to limited potential for a single qualifying catastrophe before year-end without significant shifts in ENSO or steering patterns. Upcoming seasonal outlooks will provide key updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$223,410 Объем
$223,410 Объем
Да
$223,410 Объем
$223,410 Объем
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Current monitoring from agencies including NOAA, USGS, and the National Hurricane Center shows no active major threats meeting typical resolution thresholds for large-scale events in the second half of 2026. Stable atmospheric patterns, below-average tropical cyclone activity so far this season, and seismic data indicating typical background rates rather than elevated risk support trader consensus favoring the "No" outcome at 79.5% implied probability. While smaller floods, wildfires, and storms have occurred, model consensus and historical analogs point to limited potential for a single qualifying catastrophe before year-end without significant shifts in ENSO or steering patterns. Upcoming seasonal outlooks will provide key updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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