Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 75.5% for the Natural Disaster in 2026? market because the defined thresholds remain statistically rare. Through mid-June, no Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption has occurred according to Smithsonian monitoring, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has registered on USGS networks, and no 10kt+ meteor impact has been recorded. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have limited rapid intensification potential for Atlantic or Pacific storms, while ongoing seismic activity stays below the 8.5 threshold and volcanic alerts show no signs of escalation. With roughly half the year left, the absence of early qualifying events reinforces the market-implied odds absent a major shift in forecasts or new observational alerts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$223,389 Объем
$223,389 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$223,389 Объем
$223,389 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 75.5% for the Natural Disaster in 2026? market because the defined thresholds remain statistically rare. Through mid-June, no Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption has occurred according to Smithsonian monitoring, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has registered on USGS networks, and no 10kt+ meteor impact has been recorded. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have limited rapid intensification potential for Atlantic or Pacific storms, while ongoing seismic activity stays below the 8.5 threshold and volcanic alerts show no signs of escalation. With roughly half the year left, the absence of early qualifying events reinforces the market-implied odds absent a major shift in forecasts or new observational alerts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$223,389Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 75.5% for the Natural Disaster in 2026? market because the defined thresholds remain statistically rare. Through mid-June, no Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption has occurred according to Smithsonian monitoring, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has registered on USGS networks, and no 10kt+ meteor impact has been recorded. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have limited rapid intensification potential for Atlantic or Pacific storms, while ongoing seismic activity stays below the 8.5 threshold and volcanic alerts show no signs of escalation. With roughly half the year left, the absence of early qualifying events reinforces the market-implied odds absent a major shift in forecasts or new observational alerts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$223,389Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 75.5% for the Natural Disaster in 2026? market because the defined thresholds remain statistically rare. Through mid-June, no Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption has occurred according to Smithsonian monitoring, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has registered on USGS networks, and no 10kt+ meteor impact has been recorded. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have limited rapid intensification potential for Atlantic or Pacific storms, while ongoing seismic activity stays below the 8.5 threshold and volcanic alerts show no signs of escalation. With roughly half the year left, the absence of early qualifying events reinforces the market-implied odds absent a major shift in forecasts or new observational alerts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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