Trader consensus assigns roughly 78.5% implied probability to “No” because the market resolves only on four rare extremes: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026, official monitoring from NOAA, USGS, and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season tropical activity. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not promoted rapid hurricane intensification, while historical records indicate Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur roughly once every several years and M8.5+ quakes only a few times per century. With six months remaining and no early triggers or elevated alerts, the absence of qualifying events continues to support elevated odds for “No.”
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$223,410 Объем
$223,410 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$223,410 Объем
$223,410 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns roughly 78.5% implied probability to “No” because the market resolves only on four rare extremes: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026, official monitoring from NOAA, USGS, and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season tropical activity. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not promoted rapid hurricane intensification, while historical records indicate Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur roughly once every several years and M8.5+ quakes only a few times per century. With six months remaining and no early triggers or elevated alerts, the absence of qualifying events continues to support elevated odds for “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$223,410Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns roughly 78.5% implied probability to “No” because the market resolves only on four rare extremes: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026, official monitoring from NOAA, USGS, and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season tropical activity. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not promoted rapid hurricane intensification, while historical records indicate Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur roughly once every several years and M8.5+ quakes only a few times per century. With six months remaining and no early triggers or elevated alerts, the absence of qualifying events continues to support elevated odds for “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$223,410Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns roughly 78.5% implied probability to “No” because the market resolves only on four rare extremes: a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or ≥10 kt meteor impact. Through mid-June 2026, official monitoring from NOAA, USGS, and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows none of these thresholds have been met amid routine M7+ seismicity and typical early-season tropical activity. ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures have not promoted rapid hurricane intensification, while historical records indicate Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur roughly once every several years and M8.5+ quakes only a few times per century. With six months remaining and no early triggers or elevated alerts, the absence of qualifying events continues to support elevated odds for “No.”
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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