Trader consensus favoring "No" at 86.5% reflects the low historical frequency of the market's extreme triggering events, such as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous United States or a major meteor impact. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts point to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, with only an 8–14 named storms and reduced major-hurricane landfall odds around 24–32% due to a developing El Niño pattern that typically suppresses activity through stronger wind shear. Seismic and volcanic monitoring by USGS and global networks shows no elevated signals for magnitude 9+ earthquakes or VEI 7+ eruptions, consistent with long-term baselines. As the year progresses past mid-2026 without these thresholds being approached, updated model runs and observational data are expected to further anchor probabilities unless unexpected intensification or seismic activity emerges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$230,540 Объем
$230,540 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$230,540 Объем
$230,540 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 86.5% reflects the low historical frequency of the market's extreme triggering events, such as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous United States or a major meteor impact. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts point to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, with only an 8–14 named storms and reduced major-hurricane landfall odds around 24–32% due to a developing El Niño pattern that typically suppresses activity through stronger wind shear. Seismic and volcanic monitoring by USGS and global networks shows no elevated signals for magnitude 9+ earthquakes or VEI 7+ eruptions, consistent with long-term baselines. As the year progresses past mid-2026 without these thresholds being approached, updated model runs and observational data are expected to further anchor probabilities unless unexpected intensification or seismic activity emerges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$230,540Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 86.5% reflects the low historical frequency of the market's extreme triggering events, such as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous United States or a major meteor impact. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts point to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, with only an 8–14 named storms and reduced major-hurricane landfall odds around 24–32% due to a developing El Niño pattern that typically suppresses activity through stronger wind shear. Seismic and volcanic monitoring by USGS and global networks shows no elevated signals for magnitude 9+ earthquakes or VEI 7+ eruptions, consistent with long-term baselines. As the year progresses past mid-2026 without these thresholds being approached, updated model runs and observational data are expected to further anchor probabilities unless unexpected intensification or seismic activity emerges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$230,540Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 86.5% reflects the low historical frequency of the market's extreme triggering events, such as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the contiguous United States or a major meteor impact. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts point to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, with only an 8–14 named storms and reduced major-hurricane landfall odds around 24–32% due to a developing El Niño pattern that typically suppresses activity through stronger wind shear. Seismic and volcanic monitoring by USGS and global networks shows no elevated signals for magnitude 9+ earthquakes or VEI 7+ eruptions, consistent with long-term baselines. As the year progresses past mid-2026 without these thresholds being approached, updated model runs and observational data are expected to further anchor probabilities unless unexpected intensification or seismic activity emerges.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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