Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% for a major natural disaster in 2026 due to the historical rarity of threshold-level events such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. As of mid-June, USGS and NOAA monitoring show no elevated seismic or eruptive activity meeting these criteria, with ongoing 2026 events limited to smaller quakes, floods, and early-season tropical systems that fall short of market resolution standards. Climatological baselines and probabilistic forecasts indicate low odds for such extremes in the remaining months, though model updates from agencies like the NHC could introduce variability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$222,610 Объем
$222,610 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$222,610 Объем
$222,610 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% for a major natural disaster in 2026 due to the historical rarity of threshold-level events such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. As of mid-June, USGS and NOAA monitoring show no elevated seismic or eruptive activity meeting these criteria, with ongoing 2026 events limited to smaller quakes, floods, and early-season tropical systems that fall short of market resolution standards. Climatological baselines and probabilistic forecasts indicate low odds for such extremes in the remaining months, though model updates from agencies like the NHC could introduce variability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$222,610Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% for a major natural disaster in 2026 due to the historical rarity of threshold-level events such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. As of mid-June, USGS and NOAA monitoring show no elevated seismic or eruptive activity meeting these criteria, with ongoing 2026 events limited to smaller quakes, floods, and early-season tropical systems that fall short of market resolution standards. Climatological baselines and probabilistic forecasts indicate low odds for such extremes in the remaining months, though model updates from agencies like the NHC could introduce variability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$222,610Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 76.5% for a major natural disaster in 2026 due to the historical rarity of threshold-level events such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption. As of mid-June, USGS and NOAA monitoring show no elevated seismic or eruptive activity meeting these criteria, with ongoing 2026 events limited to smaller quakes, floods, and early-season tropical systems that fall short of market resolution standards. Climatological baselines and probabilistic forecasts indicate low odds for such extremes in the remaining months, though model updates from agencies like the NHC could introduce variability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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