Trader consensus strongly favors “No” at roughly 80% because the market’s strict thresholds—U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—remain statistically rare even in active years. Historical records show Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur only about once every 3–5 years on average, while M8.5+ quakes average fewer than one globally per decade and VEI-6 eruptions are even less frequent. As of mid-June 2026, no qualifying events have occurred; early Atlantic forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University point to below-normal activity amid ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures that have yet to support rapid intensification. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring report no imminent mega-eruptions or aftershock sequences capable of reaching the required magnitudes. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and model consensus for subdued extremes continue to anchor the market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$223,179 Объем
$223,179 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$223,179 Объем
$223,179 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus strongly favors “No” at roughly 80% because the market’s strict thresholds—U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—remain statistically rare even in active years. Historical records show Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur only about once every 3–5 years on average, while M8.5+ quakes average fewer than one globally per decade and VEI-6 eruptions are even less frequent. As of mid-June 2026, no qualifying events have occurred; early Atlantic forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University point to below-normal activity amid ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures that have yet to support rapid intensification. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring report no imminent mega-eruptions or aftershock sequences capable of reaching the required magnitudes. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and model consensus for subdued extremes continue to anchor the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$223,179Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus strongly favors “No” at roughly 80% because the market’s strict thresholds—U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—remain statistically rare even in active years. Historical records show Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur only about once every 3–5 years on average, while M8.5+ quakes average fewer than one globally per decade and VEI-6 eruptions are even less frequent. As of mid-June 2026, no qualifying events have occurred; early Atlantic forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University point to below-normal activity amid ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures that have yet to support rapid intensification. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring report no imminent mega-eruptions or aftershock sequences capable of reaching the required magnitudes. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and model consensus for subdued extremes continue to anchor the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$223,389Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors “No” at roughly 80% because the market’s strict thresholds—U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, M8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—remain statistically rare even in active years. Historical records show Category 5 U.S. landfalls occur only about once every 3–5 years on average, while M8.5+ quakes average fewer than one globally per decade and VEI-6 eruptions are even less frequent. As of mid-June 2026, no qualifying events have occurred; early Atlantic forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University point to below-normal activity amid ENSO-neutral conditions and current sea-surface temperatures that have yet to support rapid intensification. USGS and Smithsonian monitoring report no imminent mega-eruptions or aftershock sequences capable of reaching the required magnitudes. With six months remaining, the absence of early triggers and model consensus for subdued extremes continue to anchor the market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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