Traders see an 82% probability that none of the market’s high-threshold events will occur by year-end because U.S.-Iran diplomacy and Russia-Ukraine talks have produced incremental statements and limited measures without crossing into new invasions, regime change, or formal agreements that would trigger resolution to “No.” Earlier 2026 developments, including U.S. operations in Venezuela and initial Iran-related strikes, remained contained and did not meet the specific criteria such as a U.S. invasion of Iran or the fall of the Iranian regime. Monthly versions of the series resolved to “Yes” through May, reinforcing expectations of continuity. With mid-year stability and no major scheduled votes, summits, or escalatory deadlines immediately ahead, the current pricing reflects trader consensus that existing frameworks will hold through December.