Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 58.5% for no paradigm-shifting events in 2026, driven by the absence of triggers through early May—including President Trump remaining in office, no Chinese invasion of Taiwan, intact Xi Jinping and Iranian regime leadership despite U.S. Strait of Hormuz ultimatums and special forces operations in stalled ceasefire talks, no Russian incursion into NATO territory, and stable Bitcoin prices avoiding $1M highs or $10k lows. Recent arrests like Prince Andrew's in February do not qualify as Jeffrey Epstein revelations, while monthly "Nothing Ever Happens" markets largely affirming stability reinforce this positioning amid historical rarity of tail risks. November midterms loom as a key uncertainty, with potential Republican trifecta including Senate supermajority able to shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНичего не происходит: 2026
Ничего не происходит: 2026
Да
$518,121 Объем
$518,121 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$518,121 Объем
$518,121 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 58.5% for no paradigm-shifting events in 2026, driven by the absence of triggers through early May—including President Trump remaining in office, no Chinese invasion of Taiwan, intact Xi Jinping and Iranian regime leadership despite U.S. Strait of Hormuz ultimatums and special forces operations in stalled ceasefire talks, no Russian incursion into NATO territory, and stable Bitcoin prices avoiding $1M highs or $10k lows. Recent arrests like Prince Andrew's in February do not qualify as Jeffrey Epstein revelations, while monthly "Nothing Ever Happens" markets largely affirming stability reinforce this positioning amid historical rarity of tail risks. November midterms loom as a key uncertainty, with potential Republican trifecta including Senate supermajority able to shift odds.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Объем
$518,121Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 58.5% for no paradigm-shifting events in 2026, driven by the absence of triggers through early May—including President Trump remaining in office, no Chinese invasion of Taiwan, intact Xi Jinping and Iranian regime leadership despite U.S. Strait of Hormuz ultimatums and special forces operations in stalled ceasefire talks, no Russian incursion into NATO territory, and stable Bitcoin prices avoiding $1M highs or $10k lows. Recent arrests like Prince Andrew's in February do not qualify as Jeffrey Epstein revelations, while monthly "Nothing Ever Happens" markets largely affirming stability reinforce this positioning amid historical rarity of tail risks. November midterms loom as a key uncertainty, with potential Republican trifecta including Senate supermajority able to shift odds.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Объем
$518,121Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 58.5% for no paradigm-shifting events in 2026, driven by the absence of triggers through early May—including President Trump remaining in office, no Chinese invasion of Taiwan, intact Xi Jinping and Iranian regime leadership despite U.S. Strait of Hormuz ultimatums and special forces operations in stalled ceasefire talks, no Russian incursion into NATO territory, and stable Bitcoin prices avoiding $1M highs or $10k lows. Recent arrests like Prince Andrew's in February do not qualify as Jeffrey Epstein revelations, while monthly "Nothing Ever Happens" markets largely affirming stability reinforce this positioning amid historical rarity of tail risks. November midterms loom as a key uncertainty, with potential Republican trifecta including Senate supermajority able to shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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