Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" at 55.5% for no major shocks in 2026, reflecting the absence of resolution triggers through late April despite close calls like U.S. forces entering Iran amid Strait of Hormuz tensions without a full invasion, stable Iranian regime, President Trump remaining in office, Xi Jinping secure, Bitcoin trading between $10k and $1M, and no Russia-NATO incursion, Taiwan invasion, regime collapses, or mega-disasters such as VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions or 9.0+ earthquakes. This slight edge for stasis stems from de-escalation signals in geopolitics and steady crypto markets over the past month, though uncertainty looms over November midterms—where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority would resolve to "No"—along with potential escalations in Iran, Taiwan, or Bitcoin volatility.