The 82.5% implied probability for “Yes” in the “Nothing Ever Happens: 2026” market reflects trader consensus that none of the listed threshold events—such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Trump’s removal from office, Russian incursion into a NATO member, Republican Senate supermajority, or extreme Bitcoin moves—have materialized or appear imminent with roughly 3.5 months remaining. Ongoing Middle East tensions, including the 2026 Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz incidents, have stayed below the defined escalation triggers. Scheduled votes, including the November U.S. midterms and various national elections, have not produced signals of the required leadership shifts or supermajority outcomes. Contained diplomatic and military developments have supported the view that major paradigm-shifting events remain unlikely before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНичего не происходит: 2026
Ничего не происходит: 2026
Да
83% вероятность
$789,350 Объем
$789,350 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
83% вероятность
$789,350 Объем
$789,350 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfThe 82.5% implied probability for “Yes” in the “Nothing Ever Happens: 2026” market reflects trader consensus that none of the listed threshold events—such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Trump’s removal from office, Russian incursion into a NATO member, Republican Senate supermajority, or extreme Bitcoin moves—have materialized or appear imminent with roughly 3.5 months remaining. Ongoing Middle East tensions, including the 2026 Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz incidents, have stayed below the defined escalation triggers. Scheduled votes, including the November U.S. midterms and various national elections, have not produced signals of the required leadership shifts or supermajority outcomes. Contained diplomatic and military developments have supported the view that major paradigm-shifting events remain unlikely before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Объем
$789,350Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfThe 82.5% implied probability for “Yes” in the “Nothing Ever Happens: 2026” market reflects trader consensus that none of the listed threshold events—such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Trump’s removal from office, Russian incursion into a NATO member, Republican Senate supermajority, or extreme Bitcoin moves—have materialized or appear imminent with roughly 3.5 months remaining. Ongoing Middle East tensions, including the 2026 Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz incidents, have stayed below the defined escalation triggers. Scheduled votes, including the November U.S. midterms and various national elections, have not produced signals of the required leadership shifts or supermajority outcomes. Contained diplomatic and military developments have supported the view that major paradigm-shifting events remain unlikely before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Объем
$789,350Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The 82.5% implied probability for “Yes” in the “Nothing Ever Happens: 2026” market reflects trader consensus that none of the listed threshold events—such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Trump’s removal from office, Russian incursion into a NATO member, Republican Senate supermajority, or extreme Bitcoin moves—have materialized or appear imminent with roughly 3.5 months remaining. Ongoing Middle East tensions, including the 2026 Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz incidents, have stayed below the defined escalation triggers. Scheduled votes, including the November U.S. midterms and various national elections, have not produced signals of the required leadership shifts or supermajority outcomes. Contained diplomatic and military developments have supported the view that major paradigm-shifting events remain unlikely before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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