Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and ESA has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy in 2026. Risk lists and Sentry scans show potential threats only in 2027 and beyond, with minuscule probabilities, while recent close approaches through late August remain safe misses at several lunar distances. Small meteoroids under 10 meters continue to produce minor atmospheric events, but none approach the size threshold for a major strike. Continuous orbit refinements and surveys reinforce trader consensus that the annual baseline risk stays negligible absent an undetected object, with no upcoming catalysts expected to alter this outlook before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКрупный удар метеорита (10 тыс. тонн +) в 2026 году?
Крупный удар метеорита (10 тыс. тонн +) в 2026 году?
Да
11% вероятность
$200,454 Объем
$200,454 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
11% вероятность
$200,454 Объем
$200,454 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and ESA has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy in 2026. Risk lists and Sentry scans show potential threats only in 2027 and beyond, with minuscule probabilities, while recent close approaches through late August remain safe misses at several lunar distances. Small meteoroids under 10 meters continue to produce minor atmospheric events, but none approach the size threshold for a major strike. Continuous orbit refinements and surveys reinforce trader consensus that the annual baseline risk stays negligible absent an undetected object, with no upcoming catalysts expected to alter this outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Объем
$200,454Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and ESA has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy in 2026. Risk lists and Sentry scans show potential threats only in 2027 and beyond, with minuscule probabilities, while recent close approaches through late August remain safe misses at several lunar distances. Small meteoroids under 10 meters continue to produce minor atmospheric events, but none approach the size threshold for a major strike. Continuous orbit refinements and surveys reinforce trader consensus that the annual baseline risk stays negligible absent an undetected object, with no upcoming catalysts expected to alter this outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$200,454Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and ESA has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ impact energy in 2026. Risk lists and Sentry scans show potential threats only in 2027 and beyond, with minuscule probabilities, while recent close approaches through late August remain safe misses at several lunar distances. Small meteoroids under 10 meters continue to produce minor atmospheric events, but none approach the size threshold for a major strike. Continuous orbit refinements and surveys reinforce trader consensus that the annual baseline risk stays negligible absent an undetected object, with no upcoming catalysts expected to alter this outlook before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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