**Elevated preliminary counts through early September have driven the strong market consensus toward 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes in 2026.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center data show 1,419 preliminary reports by September 7, already exceeding the 2003–2022 annual average of 1,248 and recent multi-year norms. Above-average activity in March–June, concentrated in the Midwest and Great Plains with notable outbreaks, accounts for most of the surplus, while late-summer and early-fall contributions remain modest. ENSO-neutral conditions earlier in the year supported more frequent favorable shear and instability setups than La Niña-influenced seasons. Although an emerging El Niño could modestly suppress remaining months and final verification may trim preliminary numbers, the year-to-date total leaves little realistic path below the 1,250 threshold barring unprecedented downward revisions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько торнадо в США в 2026 году?
Сколько торнадо в США в 2026 году?
1250+ 91%
1200–1249 4.4%
1150–1199 4.2%
1100–1149 3.8%
$83,038 Объем
$83,038 Объем
9 янв. 2027 г.
<950
<1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
4%
1250+
91%
1250+ 91%
1200–1249 4.4%
1150–1199 4.2%
1100–1149 3.8%
$83,038 Объем
$83,038 Объем
9 янв. 2027 г.
<950
$23,841 Объем
<1%
950–999
$3,731 Объем
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Объем
<1%
1050–1099
$9,289 Объем
<1%
1100–1149
$3,368 Объем
4%
1150–1199
$4,192 Объем
4%
1200–1249
$16,027 Объем
4%
1250+
$19,139 Объем
91%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated preliminary counts through early September have driven the strong market consensus toward 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes in 2026.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center data show 1,419 preliminary reports by September 7, already exceeding the 2003–2022 annual average of 1,248 and recent multi-year norms. Above-average activity in March–June, concentrated in the Midwest and Great Plains with notable outbreaks, accounts for most of the surplus, while late-summer and early-fall contributions remain modest. ENSO-neutral conditions earlier in the year supported more frequent favorable shear and instability setups than La Niña-influenced seasons. Although an emerging El Niño could modestly suppress remaining months and final verification may trim preliminary numbers, the year-to-date total leaves little realistic path below the 1,250 threshold barring unprecedented downward revisions.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Открытие рынка: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Объем
$83,038Дата окончания
10 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated preliminary counts through early September have driven the strong market consensus toward 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes in 2026.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center data show 1,419 preliminary reports by September 7, already exceeding the 2003–2022 annual average of 1,248 and recent multi-year norms. Above-average activity in March–June, concentrated in the Midwest and Great Plains with notable outbreaks, accounts for most of the surplus, while late-summer and early-fall contributions remain modest. ENSO-neutral conditions earlier in the year supported more frequent favorable shear and instability setups than La Niña-influenced seasons. Although an emerging El Niño could modestly suppress remaining months and final verification may trim preliminary numbers, the year-to-date total leaves little realistic path below the 1,250 threshold barring unprecedented downward revisions.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Объем
$83,038Дата окончания
10 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated preliminary counts through early September have driven the strong market consensus toward 1,250+ U.S. tornadoes in 2026.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center data show 1,419 preliminary reports by September 7, already exceeding the 2003–2022 annual average of 1,248 and recent multi-year norms. Above-average activity in March–June, concentrated in the Midwest and Great Plains with notable outbreaks, accounts for most of the surplus, while late-summer and early-fall contributions remain modest. ENSO-neutral conditions earlier in the year supported more frequent favorable shear and instability setups than La Niña-influenced seasons. Although an emerging El Niño could modestly suppress remaining months and final verification may trim preliminary numbers, the year-to-date total leaves little realistic path below the 1,250 threshold barring unprecedented downward revisions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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