Recent progress in Starship flight testing, particularly the successful Flight 13 on July 24, 2026, and preparations for tower catches on upcoming V3 missions, underpins the 73.5% implied probability for full reusability before 2028. SpaceX has completed 13 launches with improving outcomes on booster returns, engine relights, and controlled reentries, while advancing avionics and hardware designed for rapid reuse of both stages. Traders weigh SpaceX’s demonstrated iteration speed and internal targets for 2026 demonstrations against typical aerospace delays, viewing the aggressive cadence and recent intact vehicle performance as supportive of achieving operational full reusability within the timeline. Key near-term catalysts include Flight 14’s expected orbital profile and recovery attempts later this year.