No leads the market at 73% implied probability because no known near-Earth objects are projected to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, consistent with NASA and JPL assessments of current orbital data. Historical frequency supports this outlook: meter-scale objects capable of 5 kt TNT-equivalent explosions occur only a few times per decade on average, while the recent uptick in reported fireballs reflects smaller, pebble- to few-meter bodies that fall well below the energy threshold. Elevated Q1 2026 AMS detections remain statistically notable yet confined to non-hazardous sizes, with no model runs or observational updates indicating an imminent larger impactor. Traders are weighting these base rates and the absence of new threats over short-term sighting noise ahead of year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
$306,607 Объем
$306,607 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$306,607 Объем
$306,607 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No leads the market at 73% implied probability because no known near-Earth objects are projected to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, consistent with NASA and JPL assessments of current orbital data. Historical frequency supports this outlook: meter-scale objects capable of 5 kt TNT-equivalent explosions occur only a few times per decade on average, while the recent uptick in reported fireballs reflects smaller, pebble- to few-meter bodies that fall well below the energy threshold. Elevated Q1 2026 AMS detections remain statistically notable yet confined to non-hazardous sizes, with no model runs or observational updates indicating an imminent larger impactor. Traders are weighting these base rates and the absence of new threats over short-term sighting noise ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Объем
$306,607Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No leads the market at 73% implied probability because no known near-Earth objects are projected to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, consistent with NASA and JPL assessments of current orbital data. Historical frequency supports this outlook: meter-scale objects capable of 5 kt TNT-equivalent explosions occur only a few times per decade on average, while the recent uptick in reported fireballs reflects smaller, pebble- to few-meter bodies that fall well below the energy threshold. Elevated Q1 2026 AMS detections remain statistically notable yet confined to non-hazardous sizes, with no model runs or observational updates indicating an imminent larger impactor. Traders are weighting these base rates and the absence of new threats over short-term sighting noise ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$306,607Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No leads the market at 73% implied probability because no known near-Earth objects are projected to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, consistent with NASA and JPL assessments of current orbital data. Historical frequency supports this outlook: meter-scale objects capable of 5 kt TNT-equivalent explosions occur only a few times per decade on average, while the recent uptick in reported fireballs reflects smaller, pebble- to few-meter bodies that fall well below the energy threshold. Elevated Q1 2026 AMS detections remain statistically notable yet confined to non-hazardous sizes, with no model runs or observational updates indicating an imminent larger impactor. Traders are weighting these base rates and the absence of new threats over short-term sighting noise ahead of year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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