**No** holds a 73.5% market-implied probability for a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 primarily because multi-kiloton bolides remain infrequent. NASA CNEOS and CTBTO infrasound records show roughly 29 events exceeding 5kt over 37 years, averaging under one per year globally, so the chance of at least one in any given calendar year sits well below 50%. No cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose impact trajectories for the remainder of 2026, and ongoing monitoring has detected no new threats. While Q1 2026 produced a statistically elevated number of fireballs, none reached the 5kt energy threshold. Traders therefore assign only modest odds to a qualifying airburst before year-end, consistent with historical base rates and the absence of imminent hazards.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
27% вероятность
$311,616 Объем
$311,616 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
27% вероятность
$311,616 Объем
$311,616 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No** holds a 73.5% market-implied probability for a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 primarily because multi-kiloton bolides remain infrequent. NASA CNEOS and CTBTO infrasound records show roughly 29 events exceeding 5kt over 37 years, averaging under one per year globally, so the chance of at least one in any given calendar year sits well below 50%. No cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose impact trajectories for the remainder of 2026, and ongoing monitoring has detected no new threats. While Q1 2026 produced a statistically elevated number of fireballs, none reached the 5kt energy threshold. Traders therefore assign only modest odds to a qualifying airburst before year-end, consistent with historical base rates and the absence of imminent hazards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Объем
$311,616Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No** holds a 73.5% market-implied probability for a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 primarily because multi-kiloton bolides remain infrequent. NASA CNEOS and CTBTO infrasound records show roughly 29 events exceeding 5kt over 37 years, averaging under one per year globally, so the chance of at least one in any given calendar year sits well below 50%. No cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose impact trajectories for the remainder of 2026, and ongoing monitoring has detected no new threats. While Q1 2026 produced a statistically elevated number of fireballs, none reached the 5kt energy threshold. Traders therefore assign only modest odds to a qualifying airburst before year-end, consistent with historical base rates and the absence of imminent hazards.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$311,616Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No** holds a 73.5% market-implied probability for a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 primarily because multi-kiloton bolides remain infrequent. NASA CNEOS and CTBTO infrasound records show roughly 29 events exceeding 5kt over 37 years, averaging under one per year globally, so the chance of at least one in any given calendar year sits well below 50%. No cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose impact trajectories for the remainder of 2026, and ongoing monitoring has detected no new threats. While Q1 2026 produced a statistically elevated number of fireballs, none reached the 5kt energy threshold. Traders therefore assign only modest odds to a qualifying airburst before year-end, consistent with historical base rates and the absence of imminent hazards.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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