NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly on “No.” Recent fireballs, including the March 2026 Cleveland event releasing roughly 250 tons of TNT and a smaller Houston airburst, remained well below the 5 kt threshold on the impact-energy scale. Meter-scale objects that could reach this energy occur on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with the historical record and current orbital data. Ongoing surveys could still detect small, previously unknown impactors, yet the absence of elevated risk from Sentry or equivalent systems supports the 75.5 % market-implied probability against a strike this year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
$306,674 Объем
$306,674 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$306,674 Объем
$306,674 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly on “No.” Recent fireballs, including the March 2026 Cleveland event releasing roughly 250 tons of TNT and a smaller Houston airburst, remained well below the 5 kt threshold on the impact-energy scale. Meter-scale objects that could reach this energy occur on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with the historical record and current orbital data. Ongoing surveys could still detect small, previously unknown impactors, yet the absence of elevated risk from Sentry or equivalent systems supports the 75.5 % market-implied probability against a strike this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Объем
$306,674Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly on “No.” Recent fireballs, including the March 2026 Cleveland event releasing roughly 250 tons of TNT and a smaller Houston airburst, remained well below the 5 kt threshold on the impact-energy scale. Meter-scale objects that could reach this energy occur on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with the historical record and current orbital data. Ongoing surveys could still detect small, previously unknown impactors, yet the absence of elevated risk from Sentry or equivalent systems supports the 75.5 % market-implied probability against a strike this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$306,674Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, keeping trader consensus firmly on “No.” Recent fireballs, including the March 2026 Cleveland event releasing roughly 250 tons of TNT and a smaller Houston airburst, remained well below the 5 kt threshold on the impact-energy scale. Meter-scale objects that could reach this energy occur on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with the historical record and current orbital data. Ongoing surveys could still detect small, previously unknown impactors, yet the absence of elevated risk from Sentry or equivalent systems supports the 75.5 % market-implied probability against a strike this year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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