No known near-Earth objects (NEOs) large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, per NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring via the Sentry impact-monitoring system. Catalogued objects show zero significant impact probability this year, while recent fireball detections—including events in Ohio and Massachusetts—remain well below the 5 kt threshold on the JPL bolide repository. Such airbursts from meter-scale objects occur on decadal rather than annual timescales, aligning with historical records. Elevated 2026 witness reports reflect improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Ongoing surveys could yet identify small, undetected impactors, yet current orbital data sustain trader consensus favoring no qualifying strike.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
$306,607 Объем
$306,607 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$306,607 Объем
$306,607 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects (NEOs) large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, per NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring via the Sentry impact-monitoring system. Catalogued objects show zero significant impact probability this year, while recent fireball detections—including events in Ohio and Massachusetts—remain well below the 5 kt threshold on the JPL bolide repository. Such airbursts from meter-scale objects occur on decadal rather than annual timescales, aligning with historical records. Elevated 2026 witness reports reflect improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Ongoing surveys could yet identify small, undetected impactors, yet current orbital data sustain trader consensus favoring no qualifying strike.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Объем
$306,607Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects (NEOs) large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, per NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring via the Sentry impact-monitoring system. Catalogued objects show zero significant impact probability this year, while recent fireball detections—including events in Ohio and Massachusetts—remain well below the 5 kt threshold on the JPL bolide repository. Such airbursts from meter-scale objects occur on decadal rather than annual timescales, aligning with historical records. Elevated 2026 witness reports reflect improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Ongoing surveys could yet identify small, undetected impactors, yet current orbital data sustain trader consensus favoring no qualifying strike.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$306,607Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects (NEOs) large enough to produce a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, per NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA monitoring via the Sentry impact-monitoring system. Catalogued objects show zero significant impact probability this year, while recent fireball detections—including events in Ohio and Massachusetts—remain well below the 5 kt threshold on the JPL bolide repository. Such airbursts from meter-scale objects occur on decadal rather than annual timescales, aligning with historical records. Elevated 2026 witness reports reflect improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Ongoing surveys could yet identify small, undetected impactors, yet current orbital data sustain trader consensus favoring no qualifying strike.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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