No known near-Earth objects pose a collision risk capable of a 5 kt or greater airburst in 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS and ESA monitoring, keeping trader consensus at 72.5% for no event. Catalogued NEOs show zero meaningful impact probability this year, while recent fireballs tracked via the JPL Fireball repository—including daytime bolides over Massachusetts and Ohio—have all registered well below the 5 kt threshold. Historical data indicate objects several meters across produce such airbursts on roughly decadal rather than annual timescales, with improved detection networks increasing reports without raising actual hazard levels. Ongoing surveys through year-end could still reveal small undetected impactors, though current orbital assessments leave limited room for a qualifying strike before resolution criteria are evaluated in early 2027.