**No at 73% reflects the low base rate of 5 kt-scale airbursts and the lack of any confirmed event through mid-June 2026.** Objects roughly 7 meters across produce ~5 kt airbursts roughly once every five years on average, implying an annual probability well below the market's earlier pricing. No catalogued near-Earth objects pose an impact risk this year, per NASA and ESA monitoring, while ongoing NEO Surveyor development underscores continued gaps in detection of smaller bodies. A statistically elevated number of fireballs reported in Q1 2026 has not translated into multi-kiloton events, keeping trader consensus aligned with historical frequency and the remaining six months of the calendar year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
$306,607 Объем
$306,607 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$306,607 Объем
$306,607 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 73% reflects the low base rate of 5 kt-scale airbursts and the lack of any confirmed event through mid-June 2026.** Objects roughly 7 meters across produce ~5 kt airbursts roughly once every five years on average, implying an annual probability well below the market's earlier pricing. No catalogued near-Earth objects pose an impact risk this year, per NASA and ESA monitoring, while ongoing NEO Surveyor development underscores continued gaps in detection of smaller bodies. A statistically elevated number of fireballs reported in Q1 2026 has not translated into multi-kiloton events, keeping trader consensus aligned with historical frequency and the remaining six months of the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Объем
$306,607Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 73% reflects the low base rate of 5 kt-scale airbursts and the lack of any confirmed event through mid-June 2026.** Objects roughly 7 meters across produce ~5 kt airbursts roughly once every five years on average, implying an annual probability well below the market's earlier pricing. No catalogued near-Earth objects pose an impact risk this year, per NASA and ESA monitoring, while ongoing NEO Surveyor development underscores continued gaps in detection of smaller bodies. A statistically elevated number of fireballs reported in Q1 2026 has not translated into multi-kiloton events, keeping trader consensus aligned with historical frequency and the remaining six months of the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$306,607Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 73% reflects the low base rate of 5 kt-scale airbursts and the lack of any confirmed event through mid-June 2026.** Objects roughly 7 meters across produce ~5 kt airbursts roughly once every five years on average, implying an annual probability well below the market's earlier pricing. No catalogued near-Earth objects pose an impact risk this year, per NASA and ESA monitoring, while ongoing NEO Surveyor development underscores continued gaps in detection of smaller bodies. A statistically elevated number of fireballs reported in Q1 2026 has not translated into multi-kiloton events, keeping trader consensus aligned with historical frequency and the remaining six months of the calendar year.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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