No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt airburst are on collision courses with Earth in 2026, according to ongoing NASA JPL and ESA monitoring of close approaches. Historical rates place Tunguska-scale or Chelyabinsk-scale events (hundreds of kt) on multi-decade intervals, with smaller 5 kt impacts occurring perhaps once per several years on average, though detection biases and atmospheric fragmentation complicate precise estimates. A statistically notable rise in reported fireballs during Q1 2026 has modestly elevated trader sentiment for Yes, yet none have approached the energy threshold or produced confirmed ground effects. Absent new survey detections or orbital revisions before year-end, the 75.5% No consensus reflects the absence of credible impactors and established low annual base rates.