No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on 2026 collision trajectories, per NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, supporting the 75.5% market-implied probability of no such event. Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact risk this year, while recent fireballs—including the March 2026 Ohio daytime bolide from a roughly 2-meter object—registered well below the 5 kt threshold on the NASA JPL Fireball repository. These small airbursts occur on decadal rather than annual timescales based on historical records, with 2026's elevated witness reports attributed to improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Undetected meter-scale impactors remain possible until year-end surveys refine orbits, yet current data keep trader consensus firmly on No.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
5-километровый удар метеорита в 2026 году?
Да
$306,670 Объем
$306,670 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$306,670 Объем
$306,670 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on 2026 collision trajectories, per NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, supporting the 75.5% market-implied probability of no such event. Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact risk this year, while recent fireballs—including the March 2026 Ohio daytime bolide from a roughly 2-meter object—registered well below the 5 kt threshold on the NASA JPL Fireball repository. These small airbursts occur on decadal rather than annual timescales based on historical records, with 2026's elevated witness reports attributed to improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Undetected meter-scale impactors remain possible until year-end surveys refine orbits, yet current data keep trader consensus firmly on No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Объем
$306,670Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on 2026 collision trajectories, per NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, supporting the 75.5% market-implied probability of no such event. Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact risk this year, while recent fireballs—including the March 2026 Ohio daytime bolide from a roughly 2-meter object—registered well below the 5 kt threshold on the NASA JPL Fireball repository. These small airbursts occur on decadal rather than annual timescales based on historical records, with 2026's elevated witness reports attributed to improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Undetected meter-scale impactors remain possible until year-end surveys refine orbits, yet current data keep trader consensus firmly on No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$306,670Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on 2026 collision trajectories, per NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring, supporting the 75.5% market-implied probability of no such event. Catalogued NEOs show zero significant impact risk this year, while recent fireballs—including the March 2026 Ohio daytime bolide from a roughly 2-meter object—registered well below the 5 kt threshold on the NASA JPL Fireball repository. These small airbursts occur on decadal rather than annual timescales based on historical records, with 2026's elevated witness reports attributed to improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Undetected meter-scale impactors remain possible until year-end surveys refine orbits, yet current data keep trader consensus firmly on No.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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