Traders assign a 98.5% probability to no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because no near-Earth objects large enough to produce that yield are on collision trajectories, according to continuous monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s planetary defense systems. Recent small fireballs and meteorite falls in 2026, including events over Europe, Ohio, and Washington state, remained far below megaton scale and were detected well in advance, reinforcing the reliability of current surveys. A strike of this magnitude is statistically expected only once every several thousand years, and existing catalogs plus ongoing observations have identified no credible threats through year-end. The slim remaining uncertainty stems from the possibility of an undetected small asteroid discovered late in its approach, though improved detection networks make such a surprise increasingly improbable before December.