NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact-monitoring system, along with ESA tracking, show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy release through the remainder of 2026. Refined orbital catalogs and recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2, confirm zero risk from cataloged bodies, while historical rates for meter-scale bolides yielding this energy average only once every several years globally. With more than half the year elapsed without a qualifying atmospheric entry recorded in the NASA JPL Fireball repository, the remaining timeframe further narrows statistical odds. Only an undetected small asteroid arriving late could alter the outcome, though improved survey sensitivity makes this highly improbable before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено100-тысячный метеоритный удар в 2026 году?
100-тысячный метеоритный удар в 2026 году?
Да
4% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact-monitoring system, along with ESA tracking, show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy release through the remainder of 2026. Refined orbital catalogs and recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2, confirm zero risk from cataloged bodies, while historical rates for meter-scale bolides yielding this energy average only once every several years globally. With more than half the year elapsed without a qualifying atmospheric entry recorded in the NASA JPL Fireball repository, the remaining timeframe further narrows statistical odds. Only an undetected small asteroid arriving late could alter the outcome, though improved survey sensitivity makes this highly improbable before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Объем
$8,902Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact-monitoring system, along with ESA tracking, show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy release through the remainder of 2026. Refined orbital catalogs and recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2, confirm zero risk from cataloged bodies, while historical rates for meter-scale bolides yielding this energy average only once every several years globally. With more than half the year elapsed without a qualifying atmospheric entry recorded in the NASA JPL Fireball repository, the remaining timeframe further narrows statistical odds. Only an undetected small asteroid arriving late could alter the outcome, though improved survey sensitivity makes this highly improbable before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$8,902Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry impact-monitoring system, along with ESA tracking, show no known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of 100 kt TNT-equivalent energy release through the remainder of 2026. Refined orbital catalogs and recent close approaches, such as 2026 JH2, confirm zero risk from cataloged bodies, while historical rates for meter-scale bolides yielding this energy average only once every several years globally. With more than half the year elapsed without a qualifying atmospheric entry recorded in the NASA JPL Fireball repository, the remaining timeframe further narrows statistical odds. Only an undetected small asteroid arriving late could alter the outcome, though improved survey sensitivity makes this highly improbable before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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