NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroid or comet on an Earth-impact trajectory through 2026 or beyond, with the Sentry monitoring system continuously scanning cataloged near-Earth objects and finding zero credible collision risks. Ground- and space-based surveys such as Pan-STARRS and Catalina have identified nearly 40,000 NEOs, and recent close approaches—including 2026 JH2 and 2026 HJ—have been refined to safe distances with no impact probability. A 100-kiloton airburst requires an object roughly 10–20 meters across; such bodies are tracked with increasing completeness, and no candidate meets the orbital or size criteria for 2026. While an undetected small object or long-period comet could theoretically arrive undetected, current observational coverage and model consensus make this scenario highly improbable before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено100-тысячный метеоритный удар в 2026 году?
100-тысячный метеоритный удар в 2026 году?
Да
4% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroid or comet on an Earth-impact trajectory through 2026 or beyond, with the Sentry monitoring system continuously scanning cataloged near-Earth objects and finding zero credible collision risks. Ground- and space-based surveys such as Pan-STARRS and Catalina have identified nearly 40,000 NEOs, and recent close approaches—including 2026 JH2 and 2026 HJ—have been refined to safe distances with no impact probability. A 100-kiloton airburst requires an object roughly 10–20 meters across; such bodies are tracked with increasing completeness, and no candidate meets the orbital or size criteria for 2026. While an undetected small object or long-period comet could theoretically arrive undetected, current observational coverage and model consensus make this scenario highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Объем
$8,902Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroid or comet on an Earth-impact trajectory through 2026 or beyond, with the Sentry monitoring system continuously scanning cataloged near-Earth objects and finding zero credible collision risks. Ground- and space-based surveys such as Pan-STARRS and Catalina have identified nearly 40,000 NEOs, and recent close approaches—including 2026 JH2 and 2026 HJ—have been refined to safe distances with no impact probability. A 100-kiloton airburst requires an object roughly 10–20 meters across; such bodies are tracked with increasing completeness, and no candidate meets the orbital or size criteria for 2026. While an undetected small object or long-period comet could theoretically arrive undetected, current observational coverage and model consensus make this scenario highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$8,902Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroid or comet on an Earth-impact trajectory through 2026 or beyond, with the Sentry monitoring system continuously scanning cataloged near-Earth objects and finding zero credible collision risks. Ground- and space-based surveys such as Pan-STARRS and Catalina have identified nearly 40,000 NEOs, and recent close approaches—including 2026 JH2 and 2026 HJ—have been refined to safe distances with no impact probability. A 100-kiloton airburst requires an object roughly 10–20 meters across; such bodies are tracked with increasing completeness, and no candidate meets the orbital or size criteria for 2026. While an undetected small object or long-period comet could theoretically arrive undetected, current observational coverage and model consensus make this scenario highly improbable before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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