Traders assign an 81.5% probability to no U.S. AI safety bill passing before 2027 primarily due to the compressed congressional calendar ahead of the November 2026 midterms and persistent disagreements over enforcement provisions. Bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Majority Leader John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar have advanced a targeted duty-of-care framework addressing catastrophic risks such as bioweapons assistance from frontier models, yet key language on liability and verification remains unresolved as of mid-September. The House Science Committee has advanced narrower measures on labeling, NIST standards, and cybersecurity, but none encompass the scope needed for market resolution. Lawmakers cite limited session days, competing priorities, and uncertainty over preemption of state laws as barriers, with recent warnings from developers accelerating talks without guaranteeing floor action before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСША введут в действие законопроект о безопасности ИИ до 2027 года?
США введут в действие законопроект о безопасности ИИ до 2027 года?
Да
19% вероятность
$103,265 Объем
$103,265 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
19% вероятность
$103,265 Объем
$103,265 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Traders assign an 81.5% probability to no U.S. AI safety bill passing before 2027 primarily due to the compressed congressional calendar ahead of the November 2026 midterms and persistent disagreements over enforcement provisions. Bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Majority Leader John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar have advanced a targeted duty-of-care framework addressing catastrophic risks such as bioweapons assistance from frontier models, yet key language on liability and verification remains unresolved as of mid-September. The House Science Committee has advanced narrower measures on labeling, NIST standards, and cybersecurity, but none encompass the scope needed for market resolution. Lawmakers cite limited session days, competing priorities, and uncertainty over preemption of state laws as barriers, with recent warnings from developers accelerating talks without guaranteeing floor action before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Объем
$103,265Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Traders assign an 81.5% probability to no U.S. AI safety bill passing before 2027 primarily due to the compressed congressional calendar ahead of the November 2026 midterms and persistent disagreements over enforcement provisions. Bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Majority Leader John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar have advanced a targeted duty-of-care framework addressing catastrophic risks such as bioweapons assistance from frontier models, yet key language on liability and verification remains unresolved as of mid-September. The House Science Committee has advanced narrower measures on labeling, NIST standards, and cybersecurity, but none encompass the scope needed for market resolution. Lawmakers cite limited session days, competing priorities, and uncertainty over preemption of state laws as barriers, with recent warnings from developers accelerating talks without guaranteeing floor action before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$103,265Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 81.5% probability to no U.S. AI safety bill passing before 2027 primarily due to the compressed congressional calendar ahead of the November 2026 midterms and persistent disagreements over enforcement provisions. Bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Majority Leader John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar have advanced a targeted duty-of-care framework addressing catastrophic risks such as bioweapons assistance from frontier models, yet key language on liability and verification remains unresolved as of mid-September. The House Science Committee has advanced narrower measures on labeling, NIST standards, and cybersecurity, but none encompass the scope needed for market resolution. Lawmakers cite limited session days, competing priorities, and uncertainty over preemption of state laws as barriers, with recent warnings from developers accelerating talks without guaranteeing floor action before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы