OpenAI’s pivot toward core large language model development, enterprise tools, coding products, and IPO preparation has driven the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 social network release. After launching and then discontinuing the experimental Sora app—a TikTok-style platform for AI-generated video feeds—by March 2026 due to prohibitive compute costs and moderation issues, the company has narrowed its focus to revenue-generating areas like Codex enhancements and ChatGPT superapp features. Early 2026 reports described only a small-team prototype exploring biometric verification for a humans-only platform, with no confirmed timeline or resources allocated for a full launch by year-end. A surprise acceleration of that prototype or deep social integrations within existing apps could still alter outcomes before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВыпустит ли OpenAI социальную сеть в 2026 году?
Выпустит ли OpenAI социальную сеть в 2026 году?
Да
8% вероятность
$63,317 Объем
$63,317 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
8% вероятность
$63,317 Объем
$63,317 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s pivot toward core large language model development, enterprise tools, coding products, and IPO preparation has driven the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 social network release. After launching and then discontinuing the experimental Sora app—a TikTok-style platform for AI-generated video feeds—by March 2026 due to prohibitive compute costs and moderation issues, the company has narrowed its focus to revenue-generating areas like Codex enhancements and ChatGPT superapp features. Early 2026 reports described only a small-team prototype exploring biometric verification for a humans-only platform, with no confirmed timeline or resources allocated for a full launch by year-end. A surprise acceleration of that prototype or deep social integrations within existing apps could still alter outcomes before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Объем
$63,317Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s pivot toward core large language model development, enterprise tools, coding products, and IPO preparation has driven the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 social network release. After launching and then discontinuing the experimental Sora app—a TikTok-style platform for AI-generated video feeds—by March 2026 due to prohibitive compute costs and moderation issues, the company has narrowed its focus to revenue-generating areas like Codex enhancements and ChatGPT superapp features. Early 2026 reports described only a small-team prototype exploring biometric verification for a humans-only platform, with no confirmed timeline or resources allocated for a full launch by year-end. A surprise acceleration of that prototype or deep social integrations within existing apps could still alter outcomes before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$63,317Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s pivot toward core large language model development, enterprise tools, coding products, and IPO preparation has driven the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 social network release. After launching and then discontinuing the experimental Sora app—a TikTok-style platform for AI-generated video feeds—by March 2026 due to prohibitive compute costs and moderation issues, the company has narrowed its focus to revenue-generating areas like Codex enhancements and ChatGPT superapp features. Early 2026 reports described only a small-team prototype exploring biometric verification for a humans-only platform, with no confirmed timeline or resources allocated for a full launch by year-end. A surprise acceleration of that prototype or deep social integrations within existing apps could still alter outcomes before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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