OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 initially fueled expectations of a late-year listing, yet recent internal signals—chief among them leadership guidance favoring a 2027 debut and multiple C-suite departures—have driven trader consensus toward the 78% implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2026. At an $852 billion post-money valuation from the March funding round, any 2026 listing would likely price near current levels amid $24 billion annualized revenue that remains unprofitable, supporting the modest probabilities assigned to $750 billion–$1.5 trillion+ bands. Executive turnover and the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings underscore execution and governance risks that could further delay the process, while broader AI-sector multiples and capital-market conditions remain key swing factors for any eventual market-cap resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOpenAI revenue surpasses $25 billion, IPO preparations intensify
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 81%16%
OpenAI crossed $25 billion in annualized revenue, underscoring rapid growth and the financial necessity of an IPO to fund expansion, reinforcing market expectations for a late 2026 or early 2027 public listing.
Market prices high probability of no OpenAI IPO by end of 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 83%1%
By August 14, 2026, market pricing reflected an 83% probability that OpenAI would not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, indicating widespread expectations of a delay into 2027 despite ongoing preparations.
Market prices high likelihood of OpenAI IPO by end of 2026 with valuation near $1 trillion
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 84%2%
By mid-August 2026, market prices reflected an 84% probability of OpenAI completing an IPO by December 31, 2026, with expectations of a valuation around or above $1 trillion, driven by ongoing preparations and investor interest.
Market optimism rises for OpenAI IPO by end of 2026 despite uncertainties
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 85%3%
Market probabilities for 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' rose to 85%, reflecting increased confidence that OpenAI will complete its IPO within the year. This optimism was supported by ongoing preparations and strong revenue growth, though valuation and timing risks remain.
OpenAI targets September 2026 IPO with public S-1 filing expected soon
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 78%4%
Despite earlier delay reports, OpenAI was reported to be targeting a September 2026 IPO with a public S-1 prospectus filing imminent, which could renew market optimism about a 2026 IPO, though uncertainty remained.
OpenAI targets September 2026 for public S-1 filing and IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 85%7%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was targeting a September 2026 IPO with a public S-1 prospectus filing expected soon, renewing market optimism for a 2026 IPO. This news briefly supported the "No IPO by December 31, 2026" outcome as the market priced in a potential IPO within the year.
OpenAI maintains strong market interest despite IPO timing uncertainty
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 85%5%
By early August 2026, market prices for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome rose to 85%, reflecting growing skepticism about a 2026 IPO. However, the company continued preparing for a public offering, with ongoing discussions with major banks and strategic investors, keeping the IPO prospects alive for late 2026 or early 2027.
OpenAI maintains confidential IPO filing status with no public listing yet
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 84%54%
As of August 5, 2026, OpenAI had not publicly released its S-1 filing or announced an IPO date, maintaining confidentiality and signaling that the IPO might not occur within 2026. This ongoing uncertainty kept the market's probability for a 2026 IPO low and favored the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
OpenAI delays GPT-5.6 rollout at US government request amid IPO uncertainty
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 20%10%
In early August 2026, OpenAI postponed the launch of its GPT-5.6 model following a US government request, reflecting increased regulatory scrutiny and adding uncertainty to the IPO timeline and market valuation expectations.
OpenAI updates GPT-5.6 and cuts free-tier serving costs
OpenAI released updates to its GPT-5.6 model and reduced costs for free-tier users, demonstrating ongoing product development and enterprise monetization efforts ahead of its anticipated IPO, which may influence valuation and investor confidence.
OpenAI postpones GPT-5.6 rollout at US government request amid IPO uncertainty
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 78%4%
OpenAI delayed the launch of its GPT-5.6 model following a US government request, reflecting increased regulatory scrutiny and adding to market uncertainty about the IPO timeline.
OpenAI may delay IPO until 2027 amid investor concerns and Anthropic competition
Reports indicated that OpenAI is likely to postpone its IPO to 2027 due to investor concerns over high cash burn and competition from Anthropic, which is advancing faster in valuation and revenue growth and plans an IPO in fall 2026.
OpenAI CFO confirms plans to reserve IPO shares for retail investors
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 82%2%
The CFO's announcement of retail investor share allocation plans signaled preparation for a public listing and broadened shareholder base, supporting market optimism about eventual IPO execution despite timing uncertainty.
Reports of OpenAI IPO delay amid investor concerns over high cash burn
Reports in mid-2026 indicated OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027 due to investor concerns about its high cash burn and competition from Anthropic, shifting market sentiment away from a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO delay to 2027 amid financial and readiness concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 82%11%
In late July 2026, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar reportedly expressed reservations about a 2026 IPO timeline, citing the need to stabilize financials and meet public company reporting standards. This contributed to market skepticism about an IPO occurring before the end of 2026, increasing the probability of a delay to 2027.
OpenAI's annualized revenue surpasses $25 billion, IPO preparations intensify
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 82%17%
OpenAI crossed $25 billion in annualized revenue by mid-2026, reinforcing its position as a leading AI company and intensifying preparations for a late 2026 or early 2027 IPO, which supported market confidence in a future public listing.
SpaceX IPO surges, influencing OpenAI IPO market sentiment
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 82%12%
SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history on June 12, 2026, with a market cap surpassing $2.1 trillion on its first day. The strong performance of SpaceX's IPO influenced market sentiment around OpenAI's IPO, with some analysts suggesting it could create a favorable environment for OpenAI's listing, though OpenAI's own financial losses tempered enthusiasm.
Market experts advise caution ahead of OpenAI IPO after SpaceX debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 28%2%
After SpaceX's $2 trillion IPO debut, experts advised investors to be cautious with OpenAI's upcoming IPO, highlighting risks from competition and profitability concerns, which contributed to market uncertainty and a higher probability assigned to no IPO by end-2026.
Market experts discuss OpenAI's anticipated $1 trillion IPO valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 82%34%
Analysts and investors highlighted OpenAI's expected IPO valuation near $1 trillion, emphasizing the significance of the offering as one of the largest tech IPOs. This discussion reinforced market expectations for a high valuation but also underscored the challenges of profitability and market timing.
OpenAI CFO expresses concerns about readiness for 2026 IPO, suggests delay
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 82%3%
Internal warnings from OpenAI's CFO about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO, including audit and control challenges, contributed to market expectations of a delayed public listing to 2027.
Market experts highlight OpenAI IPO as key upcoming tech event
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 70%5%
Following SpaceX and Anthropic IPOs, market experts emphasized OpenAI's IPO as a major upcoming event, with significant investor interest and potential to reshape AI investment landscapes. This sustained market attention supported ongoing speculation about OpenAI's valuation and timing.
OpenAI CFO signals preference for 2027 IPO to ensure financial stability
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 73%6%
Statements from CFO Sarah Friar indicating a preference to delay the IPO to 2027 to stabilize finances and manage infrastructure commitments contributed to market reassessment and a decline in near-term IPO probability pricing.
OpenAI maintains no fixed IPO date, emphasizing flexibility and private growth
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 81%1%
OpenAI reiterated that it has not finalized IPO timing, preferring to remain private for certain initiatives, which sustained market uncertainty and a high probability that no IPO would occur by end of 2026.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO readiness concerns, suggesting possible 2027 delay
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 82%3%
Statements from OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar highlighted internal readiness challenges and the need for public company reporting standards, reinforcing market expectations of a delayed IPO beyond 2026.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman signals IPO plans within next year
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 82%6%
Sam Altman informed employees that OpenAI anticipates going public within the next year, reinforcing market confidence in an IPO announcement by the end of 2026 or early 2027.
Gate completes first distribution of OpenAI Pre-IPO asset certificates
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%22%
Gate completed the first phase of distributing OpenAI Pre-IPO asset certificates, enabling pre-market trading and reflecting growing investor interest and market activity ahead of the anticipated IPO. This event supported market optimism but did not directly affect IPO timing.
Gate completes first phase distribution of OpenAI Pre-IPO asset certificates
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 72%2%
Gate completed the distribution of the first batch of OpenAI Pre-IPO asset certificates, enabling pre-market trading and reflecting growing investor interest in OpenAI's public offering. This development provided a new venue for price discovery and hedging ahead of the IPO, supporting market activity and valuation signals.
OpenAI stock briefly falls below IPO price amid market volatility
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 63%17%
Following its IPO, OpenAI's stock price briefly dipped below its $135 IPO price after a four-day losing streak, reflecting market volatility and investor caution about the company's massive losses and valuation.
OpenAI stock price briefly falls below IPO price amid market volatility
Following a four-day losing streak, OpenAI's stock price briefly dipped below its IPO price, reflecting investor caution and market volatility in the wake of SpaceX's IPO and AI sector fluctuations.
OpenAI delays GPT-5.6 rollout at US government request amid IPO uncertainty
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
OpenAI postponed the launch of its GPT-5.6 AI model following a request from the US government to limit initial access, reflecting heightened regulatory scrutiny. This delay coincided with IPO postponement discussions, adding to market uncertainty about OpenAI's near-term plans.
OpenAI CFO signals retail investor allocation in upcoming IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 42%16%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar announced plans to reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, supporting market optimism about the IPO's eventual execution and broadening shareholder base expectations.
OpenAI CFO signals preference to delay IPO to 2027 for readiness
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 51%19%
Internal concerns about financial reporting, audit readiness, and compute cost growth led CFO Sarah Friar to prefer postponing the IPO beyond 2026, affecting market confidence in a timely listing.
Market prices increased probability of no IPO by end of 2026 after delay news
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 80%24%
Following reports of a delay in OpenAI's IPO to 2027, market prices for 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' rose sharply from 56% to 80%, reflecting increased skepticism about a 2026 listing.
Market skepticism grows as OpenAI IPO timeline slips toward 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 27%23%
Market analysis and reports in mid-2026 indicated growing skepticism about a 2026 IPO, with expectations shifting toward a mid-to-late 2027 listing due to financial and readiness concerns, causing a decline in market confidence for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI reaffirms IPO plans despite market volatility
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 80%49%
Following a rebound in AI stocks and SpaceX's IPO performance, analysts and insiders expressed continued confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects, suggesting the company still has a window for a 2026 listing despite challenges.
OpenAI completes $7 billion employee stock buyback at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 80%33%
On July 11, 2026, OpenAI completed a $7 billion employee stock tender offer at an $852 billion valuation, signaling internal confidence and liquidity ahead of the IPO, which helped restore some market optimism.
SK Hynix IPO closes 13% above offering price, signaling strong AI infrastructure demand
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%11%
SK Hynix's successful IPO and strong first-day performance indicated robust institutional demand for AI infrastructure, indirectly supporting positive expectations for OpenAI's IPO valuation.
OpenAI faces legal and competitive challenges ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%20%
Apple sued OpenAI over hardware trade secrets, and OpenAI's ChatGPT Mac update drew criticism, adding uncertainty to the IPO outlook and impacting market sentiment on valuation and timing.
SK Hynix debuts on Nasdaq with 13% first-day gain, signaling strong AI infrastructure demand
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 25%2%
SK Hynix's successful Nasdaq debut with a 13% first-day close at a $1.27 trillion market cap signaled robust institutional demand for AI infrastructure companies. This positive market signal supported investor confidence in upcoming AI software IPOs like OpenAI and Anthropic, though OpenAI's IPO timing remained uncertain.
SK Hynix closes +13% on Nasdaq debut, signaling strong AI infrastructure demand
SK Hynix's successful IPO and strong first-day performance signaled robust institutional demand for AI infrastructure companies, indirectly supporting expectations for OpenAI's upcoming IPO and the AI sector's growth potential.
Apple sues OpenAI and former employees over hardware trade secrets
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 25%4%
Apple filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and former employees alleging hardware trade secret violations, adding legal uncertainty that could impact OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
SK Hynix closes 13% above IPO price, signaling strong AI infrastructure demand
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%5%
SK Hynix's successful Nasdaq debut on July 10, 2026, with a 13% first-day gain and a $1.27 trillion market cap, signaled robust institutional demand for AI infrastructure, indirectly supporting positive sentiment for OpenAI's upcoming IPO.
SK Hynix IPO signals strong institutional demand for AI infrastructure
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%4%
SK Hynix's July 10, 2026, Nasdaq debut raised $26.5 billion and closed 13% above its IPO price, signaling strong institutional conviction in AI infrastructure. This positive market signal supported expectations for OpenAI's upcoming IPO by demonstrating durable demand for AI-related investments, potentially bolstering OpenAI's valuation prospects.
SK Hynix IPO success signals strong institutional demand for AI infrastructure
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 79%2%
SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut with a 13% first-day close and $1.27 trillion market cap demonstrated robust institutional appetite for AI-related infrastructure companies. This positive signal supported expectations for OpenAI's upcoming IPO and its valuation prospects.
SK Hynix closes 13% above IPO price, signaling strong AI infrastructure demand
1.25T–1.5T plunges to 2%48%
SK Hynix's successful IPO debut on July 10, 2026, with a 13% first-day close above its offering price, indicated strong institutional demand for AI infrastructure companies. This event was seen as a positive signal for the upcoming AI software IPOs including OpenAI, supporting the market's valuation expectations for OpenAI's IPO.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman emphasizes $1 trillion valuation target despite market challenges
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 80%32%
CEO Sam Altman reiterated the company's goal of a $1 trillion IPO valuation, underscoring the strategic importance of public market access to fund massive infrastructure spending. This statement helped stabilize market expectations despite ongoing concerns about losses and competition.
Bank of America extends $520 million credit line to OpenAI
1.25T–1.5T rises to 6%2%
Bank of America provided a significant credit line to OpenAI, signaling continued financial support and readiness for public markets despite IPO timing uncertainties, which helped stabilize market sentiment.
OpenAI receives U.S. regulatory approval for GPT-5.6 rollout, easing pre-IPO concerns
The U.S. Department of Commerce cleared OpenAI to launch its GPT-5.6 model, removing a key regulatory hurdle and boosting investor confidence in OpenAI's product pipeline ahead of its anticipated IPO.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman speaks publicly amid IPO speculation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 80%32%
Sam Altman’s public appearances and statements during mid-2026 kept investor interest alive and provided reassurance about the company’s strategic direction, contributing to a rebound in market confidence after earlier dips.
OpenAI IPO delay speculation intensifies amid competitor Anthropic's IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%30%
Market speculation grew that OpenAI would delay its IPO to 2027, influenced by Anthropic's confidential IPO filing and cautious market sentiment, reinforcing the shift towards no 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confirms no fixed IPO date, emphasizing option to go public later
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%33%
OpenAI reiterated that it has not decided on IPO timing and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical SEC review and roadshow timelines that could push listing into 2027. This maintained elevated market odds for no IPO by end of 2026.
OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing but timing remains undecided
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%33%
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential S-1 filing but reiterated that it has not decided on the timing of its IPO, maintaining the option to go public sooner if conditions are favorable. This confirmation solidified market expectations of an IPO in the near future but with significant timing uncertainty.
OpenAI considers 2027 IPO with $1 trillion valuation amid market volatility concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%34%
OpenAI advisors reportedly suggest delaying the IPO to 2027 due to market volatility concerns, especially after the SpaceX IPO experience. This dampened near-term IPO expectations and increased market skepticism about a 2026 IPO.
Trump administration to receive 5% stake in OpenAI as part of IPO talks
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 59%14%
Reports emerged that OpenAI proposed handing the Trump administration a 5% stake as part of IPO negotiations. This unusual political involvement added complexity and uncertainty to the IPO process, likely increasing market skepticism about the IPO occurring in 2026.
OpenAI proposes donating 5% equity to US sovereign wealth fund
OpenAI's proposal to donate 5% of its equity to a US sovereign wealth fund suggests a strategic move that may impact its IPO plans or valuation, influencing market expectations about the company's public offering prospects.
OpenAI weighs 2027 IPO, cites market volatility
<500B dips to 0%1%
The Motley Fool noted that OpenAI was still weighing a 2027 IPO, which caused a modest dip in the market’s confidence for a 2026 listing, especially the highest cap brackets.
Sam Altman advocates for AI safety and regulatory frameworks
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 65%6%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly emphasized the importance of AI safety and the need for regulatory frameworks. This statement may have influenced investor perceptions about OpenAI's future and IPO timing, contributing to market price movements favoring the 'No IPO' outcome.
Market reacts to cautious IPO timing amid SpaceX public debut concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 71%3%
Following SpaceX's volatile public market debut, OpenAI's advisors reportedly adopted a cautious approach to timing the IPO, leading to increased market skepticism about a 2026 IPO and boosting the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome probability.
Reports suggest OpenAI CFO cautions IPO delay to 2027 due to readiness concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 29%43%
Internal concerns about organizational readiness and financial reporting standards led to speculation of IPO delay, dampening market enthusiasm and reducing probabilities for a 2026 IPO valuation bracket.
Market traders predict OpenAI IPO announcement delayed to early 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 26%5%
Prediction market traders on Kalshi adjusted their expectations, pricing a 59% chance of OpenAI IPO announcement by March 1, 2027, reflecting growing consensus of a delay beyond 2026 due to cautious company strategy and market conditions.
OpenAI begins major fundraising to support capital needs before IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 56%15%
OpenAI's effort to raise $100 billion to support capital expenditures before IPO raised concerns about financial pressures, dampening market optimism for an imminent IPO and lowering prices for IPO-related outcomes.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar privately warns IPO readiness concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 79%1%
Reports emerged that CFO Sarah Friar cautioned about organizational and financial challenges, suggesting a possible IPO delay to 2027, which dampened market enthusiasm for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO signals 2027 IPO timeline to associates
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%5%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar communicated internally that the company is prioritizing financial runway stabilization and is leaning toward a 2027 IPO, reflecting concerns over large compute and infrastructure costs. This reinforced market expectations of a delayed IPO, impacting prediction market prices.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
OpenAI's engagement with major financial institutions signaled progress toward an IPO, supporting market confidence in a year-end 2026 IPO despite earlier concerns, reflected in stable or rising market prices.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar cites financial readiness concerns for IPO delay
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 23%4%
CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about OpenAI's cash burn and spending commitments, advocating for postponing the IPO to ensure financial stability before going public. This internal stance contributed to market skepticism about a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO readiness concerns, suggesting 2027 listing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 65%4%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar privately expressed concerns about the company's readiness for public-company reporting standards, indicating a possible IPO delay to 2027. This internal signal contributed to market uncertainty and reduced near-term IPO expectations.
OpenAI CFO signals preference for 2027 IPO to stabilize finances
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%18%
In early July 2026, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar reportedly expressed preference for delaying the IPO to 2027 to ensure financial stability amid high capital requirements and infrastructure commitments. This internal stance contributed to market reassessment and a decline in 2026 IPO probability.
SoftBank shares fall amid OpenAI IPO timing uncertainty
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
SoftBank's stock dropped over 12% due to concerns about OpenAI delaying its IPO, highlighting investor sensitivity to the timing of OpenAI's public offering and its impact on related investments.
New York Times reports OpenAI IPO delayed to 2027
A New York Times report suggested OpenAI postponed its IPO until 2027, reflecting a cautious approach influenced by market conditions and competitive pressures, which further dampened 2026 IPO expectations.
Reports emerge that OpenAI CFO urges IPO delay to 2027 over revenue and spending concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 48%22%
Reports that CFO Sarah Friar advocated delaying the IPO to 2027 due to missed revenue targets and large compute spending commitments caused market confidence in a 2026 IPO to drop sharply, increasing the probability of no IPO by end of 2026 and lowering valuations for all market cap brackets.
OpenAI's financial disclosures reveal massive losses and high revenue growth
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%31%
Audited financial documents revealed OpenAI posted a $38.5 billion net loss in 2025 on $13.07 billion revenue, with projected $14 billion losses in 2026. These disclosures highlighted the company's significant cash burn and raised concerns about profitability, impacting market sentiment on IPO valuation and timing.
Reports emerge of OpenAI CFO urging IPO delay to 2027 over financial concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 1%29%
Reports indicated OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar advocated delaying the IPO to 2027 due to missed revenue targets and large compute spending commitments, causing market confidence in a 2026 IPO to decline sharply.
US stocks gain on blockbuster SpaceX IPO and chip stock volatility
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 59%14%
The US stock market experienced significant gains driven by the blockbuster SpaceX IPO and volatility in chip stocks. While not directly about OpenAI, this event influenced market sentiment around tech IPOs, possibly affecting OpenAI IPO expectations and contributing to price fluctuations in the market.
White House accelerates plans for AI model standards
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%17%
The White House announced plans to accelerate AI model standards, which could impact AI companies including OpenAI. This regulatory development may have increased uncertainty about OpenAI's IPO prospects and valuation, influencing market prices toward a higher probability of no IPO within 2026.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 55%9%
In late June 2026, OpenAI engaged major financial institutions Citigroup and JPMorgan to discuss IPO plans, signaling progress toward a public offering and supporting market confidence in an eventual IPO, though timing remained uncertain.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman emphasizes no rush for IPO, targeting $1 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 46%19%
Sam Altman stated that OpenAI is not in a hurry to go public and insists on achieving a $1 trillion valuation, signaling a cautious approach to the IPO timing. This statement reinforced market expectations of a delayed IPO and contributed to the sustained high probability of no IPO by end of 2026.
Reports emerge of OpenAI IPO delay to 2027 amid financial and market concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 48%8%
Multiple reports and analyses indicated OpenAI's IPO might be delayed until 2027 due to cautious advisors and market conditions, shifting trader expectations and increasing the probability of no IPO by end of 2026.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 25%3%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing and estimated 70% chance of announcement by December 2026 increased competitive pressure on OpenAI, contributing to market uncertainty and delay expectations for OpenAI's IPO.
OpenAI reiterates IPO timing undecided after confidential filing leak
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%23%
OpenAI reiterated that although it has confidentially filed for an IPO, the timing remains undecided and the company may remain private longer. This statement maintained market uncertainty and supported the high probability of 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
OpenAI's IPO delay causes tech stocks and related shares to slide
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
Following news of OpenAI's IPO delay, chip stocks and AI-related equities experienced declines as investors digested the impact of postponed public market access and valuation uncertainty.
Anthropic surpasses OpenAI's private valuation amid OpenAI IPO delay
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 23%4%
Anthropic's private valuation rose to $965 billion, overtaking OpenAI's $852 billion mark, intensifying competition in the AI IPO race. OpenAI's delay to 2027 contrasted with Anthropic's plans for a 2026 IPO, influencing market expectations for both companies' valuations.
OpenAI reportedly delays IPO to 2027 as Anthropic valuation surpasses it
Reports in late June 2026 indicated OpenAI was delaying its IPO to 2027, despite confidential filings and ongoing preparations, as rival Anthropic surpassed OpenAI's private valuation, intensifying competitive and market pressures.
OpenAI's IPO delay impacts secondary market liquidity and investor expectations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 27%6%
The delay of OpenAI's IPO to 2027 extended the timeline for liquidity for shareholders, increasing activity in the private secondary market. This development reflected market caution and affected pricing in prediction markets for the IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI IPO timeline delayed, market adjusts expectations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 82%5%
Market participants adjusted their expectations for OpenAI's IPO timing after reports of a delay to 2027, with prediction markets lowering odds for a 2026 IPO and increasing probabilities for announcements in early 2027.
Reports surface of OpenAI IPO delay to 2027 amid market volatility
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 82%55%
News broke that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027 due to volatility in tech stocks and concerns about investor demand, especially following SpaceX's volatile IPO debut. This caused market participants to lower expectations for a 2026 IPO and increased the probability of no IPO by end of 2026.
OpenAI delays IPO to 2027 to maintain $1 trillion valuation amid market volatility
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 33%14%
Reports confirmed OpenAI's decision to postpone its IPO to 2027, driven by market turbulence and the desire to avoid a lower valuation. CEO Sam Altman insisted on holding out for a $1 trillion valuation, rejecting earlier, lower-priced IPO options.
Reports indicate OpenAI delays IPO to 2027 citing SpaceX's stock performance
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 82%2%
Following SpaceX's volatile IPO debut, reports emerged that OpenAI and Anthropic delayed their planned 2026 IPOs to 2027, citing market conditions and SpaceX's stock performance as primary reasons, increasing market skepticism about a 2026 IPO.
Reports emerge of potential IPO delay to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%28%
A New York Times report indicated OpenAI might delay its IPO until 2027 due to market conditions and internal readiness, causing a decline in market confidence for a 2026 IPO and shifting expectations toward a later announcement.
Reports emerge of potential delay in OpenAI IPO to 2027
A New York Times report indicated OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027 due to market conditions and internal readiness concerns, causing market participants to lower short-term IPO expectations and shift probabilities toward 2027.
Reports confirm OpenAI delays IPO to 2027 citing SpaceX market impact
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 26%2%
Following SpaceX's volatile IPO debut, reports confirmed that OpenAI delayed its IPO to 2027, citing concerns over market conditions and SpaceX's stock performance, which dampened near-term IPO expectations and lowered market prices for a 2026 IPO.
Reports emerge OpenAI delays IPO to 2027 amid tech selloff and market jitters
News that OpenAI would push its IPO to 2027 amid a broad tech selloff caused investor skepticism and a decline in market confidence for a 2026 IPO, impacting the probability prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
OpenAI reportedly leans toward IPO delay citing SpaceX's rocky debut
OpenAI's advisors cautioned that retail investor enthusiasm may be dampened due to SpaceX's IPO performance and tech stock volatility, leading to internal discussions about postponing the IPO to 2027 to secure a $1 trillion valuation.
Market reacts to OpenAI IPO delay reports with tech selloff
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 49%21%
Following news of OpenAI's potential IPO delay on June 26, 2026, tech and AI stocks experienced a selloff, reflecting investor concerns about the timing and valuation of OpenAI's public debut.
Speculation grows on OpenAI IPO delay to early 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 45%35%
Market speculation increased that OpenAI would delay its IPO beyond 2026, with traders assigning only about one-in-three odds for a 2026 IPO and higher odds for early 2027, causing a drop in market confidence for a 2026 listing.
OpenAI confirms IPO delay, citing market volatility and valuation concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%15%
Following media reports, OpenAI acknowledged no fixed IPO date and indicated the option to go public sooner or later depending on market conditions. The delay reflects concerns about achieving a $1 trillion valuation amid volatile tech markets and competition.
Reports emerge of OpenAI IPO delay to 2027 amid cautious market sentiment
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 85%18%
Following SpaceX's IPO debut and market volatility, reports indicated OpenAI might delay its IPO to 2027 to better prepare for public company reporting and market conditions. This news caused a shift in market probabilities, lowering expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO signals preference for 2027 IPO to stabilize financial runway amid high cash burn
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 64%9%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar reportedly favored delaying the IPO to 2027 to allow the company to stabilize its financial position given large compute and infrastructure commitments, reinforcing market expectations of a delay.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines AI vision amid IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 31%3%
Sam Altman published a detailed post on AI's future and OpenAI's strategic direction, reinforcing the company's long-term vision and the complexity of timing its IPO, which influenced market cautiousness.
OpenAI CEO confirms IPO timing uncertainty, leaning toward 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%17%
Following reports of delay, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman confirmed the IPO timing remains uncertain and suggested a possible delay to 2027, reinforcing market skepticism about a 2026 IPO and lowering near-term IPO outcome prices.
SoftBank shares plunge over 12% on OpenAI IPO delay reports
Following reports that OpenAI is delaying its IPO to 2027 to maintain a $1 trillion valuation, SoftBank's shares plunged over 12% due to its significant $65 billion stake in OpenAI. The delay raised concerns about the timing of returns on SoftBank's investment, impacting market sentiment negatively.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO may be delayed to 2027 amid market caution
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 29%44%
Following SpaceX's IPO performance and market volatility, reports indicated OpenAI might delay its IPO until 2027. This news caused a drop in market confidence for a 2026 IPO, reflecting concerns about valuation and timing amid competitive and financial challenges.
SoftBank shares fall sharply after OpenAI IPO delay reports
Following reports of OpenAI's IPO delay, SoftBank Group shares dropped significantly, reflecting investor concerns about the timing and valuation of one of OpenAI's largest backers' liquidity events.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO delayed to 2027 amid cautious market sentiment
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 78%2%
A New York Times report indicated OpenAI may postpone its IPO until 2027 due to market conditions and internal readiness, causing market participants to lower near-term IPO expectations and increase the probability of no IPO in 2026.
Reports indicate OpenAI delaying IPO beyond 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%34%
News surfaced that OpenAI was delaying its IPO, with traders estimating a 59% chance of an IPO announcement by March 2027, reducing confidence in a 2026 IPO and increasing the likelihood of "No IPO by December 31, 2026."
OpenAI announces confidential IPO filing to preempt leaks
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%34%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential IPO filing to control the narrative ahead of expected leaks, emphasizing the complexity of the decision to go public. This transparency boosted market confidence slightly, reflected in a price rebound for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
New York Times reports OpenAI IPO may be delayed until 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 83%13%
A New York Times article indicated that OpenAI might postpone its IPO debut to 2027, citing caution after SpaceX's volatile IPO performance. This news increased market skepticism about a 2026 IPO, raising the probability of "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman emphasizes AI's transformative potential amid IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%32%
Sam Altman published a post outlining AI's broad societal impact and OpenAI's vision, reinforcing the company's long-term growth potential despite IPO timing uncertainties. This helped partially restore market confidence in OpenAI's future valuation.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO timeline delayed to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 67%18%
A New York Times report indicated OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027, causing market participants to lower expectations for a 2026 IPO. This news led to a decline in the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome price and increased uncertainty about the IPO timing.
SoftBank shares fall over 12% after OpenAI IPO delay reports
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 27%2%
Following reports of OpenAI's IPO delay, SoftBank Group shares fell more than 12%, erasing roughly $38 billion in market capitalization. This reflected investor concern over the timing of OpenAI's public offering and its impact on SoftBank's large investment in the company.
OpenAI confidentially filed IPO on June 8, 2026, but timing uncertain
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%28%
On June 26, 2026, reports confirmed OpenAI had confidentially filed for IPO on June 8 but had not decided on timing, reinforcing market expectations of a delayed IPO beyond 2026 and increasing the probability of no IPO by year-end.
OpenAI IPO delay reports cause selloff in AI-related cryptocurrencies and market caution
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%19%
Following reports that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027, cryptocurrencies tied to decentralized AI and related markets sold off sharply. This reflected broader investor caution about the timing and valuation of OpenAI’s public debut, reinforcing market skepticism about a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI IPO delay causes AI token market selloff
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 40%5%
News of OpenAI's IPO delay triggered a selloff in AI-related cryptocurrencies and tokens, reflecting broader market concerns about the timing and enthusiasm for AI public offerings.
OpenAI completes $7 billion employee buyback, maintains $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
OpenAI completed a $7 billion employee buyback in August 2026, maintaining its $852 billion valuation, signaling investor confidence but also highlighting reliance on investor cash rather than earnings, impacting market valuation expectations.
Market speculation rises on delayed OpenAI IPO announcement
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%31%
Following reports of a potential IPO delay, market speculation increased that OpenAI would not announce an IPO in 2026, with traders on prediction platforms adjusting probabilities accordingly. This reflected growing uncertainty about the IPO timing and valuation.
OpenAI officially announces confidential IPO filing but timing remains undecided
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 54%26%
On June 26, 2026, OpenAI publicly announced its confidential IPO filing with the SEC, emphasizing that it had not decided on the timing and that going public "may be a while." This announcement reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO but left significant uncertainty about the exact date.
OpenAI CFO warns IPO may be delayed to 2027
1.5T+ drops to 4%8%
CFO Sarah Friar publicly expressed concerns that OpenAI was not ready for a 2026 IPO due to massive compute spending and reporting requirements. The comment spooked traders and pushed the market price down, especially for the top‑tier valuation outcomes.
OpenAI executives lean toward delaying IPO until 2027 amid market uncertainty
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 82%52%
Following SpaceX's volatile IPO debut and concerns about investor demand, OpenAI's leadership reportedly shifted toward postponing the IPO to 2027 to preserve valuation and financial stability, causing market confidence in a 2026 IPO to decline sharply.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO timeline delayed to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 70%12%
A New York Times report indicated that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027, causing market participants to lower expectations for a 2026 IPO. This news contributed to a drop in the probability of a 2026 IPO and increased the likelihood of "No IPO by December 31, 2026" outcome.
OpenAI IPO delay causes tech and chip stocks to slide
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%36%
Reports of OpenAI delaying its IPO to 2027 led to a selloff in chip stocks and tech shares, reflecting investor concerns about the timing and valuation of AI-related IPOs and the broader tech market volatility.
New York Times reports OpenAI IPO likely delayed to 2027 amid market caution
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 63%16%
A June 25, 2026 report by The New York Times indicated OpenAI was considering delaying its IPO to 2027 due to market volatility and the performance of recent mega IPOs like SpaceX, dampening near-term IPO expectations.
OpenAI CFO reportedly pushes to delay IPO amid financial concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%31%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about the company's high cash burn and losses, advocating for delaying the IPO to 2027 to stabilize finances and avoid a lower valuation. This internal push contributed to market reassessment of IPO timing and valuation.
Reports indicate OpenAI IPO delayed to 2027, CFO Sarah Friar signals caution
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 79%2%
The New York Times and other sources reported that OpenAI is leaning toward a 2027 IPO rather than 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar emphasizing financial stability and valuation targets. This news caused market participants to lower expectations for a 2026 IPO, increasing the probability of no IPO by end of 2026.
Reports emerge of potential delay in OpenAI IPO to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%39%
A New York Times report indicated that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027 due to concerns about market conditions and company readiness, causing market sentiment to shift toward a lower probability of a 2026 IPO and increasing the likelihood of "No IPO by December 31, 2026" outcome.
Reports emerge OpenAI may delay IPO to 2027 amid tech stock volatility and SpaceX's rocky debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 73%5%
Following SpaceX's volatile IPO performance and broader tech market instability, reports indicated OpenAI was considering postponing its IPO to 2027 to avoid a lower valuation and market volatility, impacting market expectations significantly.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO may be delayed to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 82%3%
A New York Times report indicated OpenAI might delay its IPO until 2027 due to market conditions and readiness concerns, causing market skepticism and a rise in the "No IPO by December 31, 2026" probability.
Reports indicate OpenAI leaning toward 2027 IPO listing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%27%
Media reports and insider commentary suggested OpenAI's leadership was favoring a 2027 IPO rather than 2026, citing the need for a $1 trillion valuation and market conditions. This news caused a significant drop in market confidence for a 2026 IPO, increasing the probability of no IPO by year-end 2026.
OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO until 2027 after SpaceX's volatile debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 46%33%
Following SpaceX's IPO and subsequent stock price decline, OpenAI executives reportedly shifted to favor delaying their IPO until 2027 to better prepare and avoid similar volatility. This development dampened market expectations for a 2026 IPO, reflected in price declines for near-term IPO outcomes.
Reports indicate OpenAI delays IPO to 2027 amid market volatility
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%21%
In late June 2026, multiple reports including from The New York Times and Reuters indicated that OpenAI was leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027 due to volatile tech markets and concerns about retail investor enthusiasm. This shift significantly increased the market's probability of no IPO in 2026.
OpenAI considers delaying IPO to 2027 amid SpaceX's rocky debut and tech market volatility
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%39%
Following SpaceX's volatile IPO performance and broader tech market uncertainty, OpenAI began leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027. This decision reflected concerns about achieving CEO Sam Altman's $1 trillion valuation target in the current market environment, dampening near-term IPO expectations.
Reports indicate OpenAI IPO timeline delayed to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%46%
A New York Times report revealed that OpenAI may delay its IPO debut until 2027 due to market conditions and cautious advisors, shifting market expectations and increasing the probability of no IPO by the end of 2026.
Reports suggest OpenAI leaning toward delaying IPO to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%28%
The New York Times reported that OpenAI executives appeared to be reconsidering a 2026 IPO, leaning toward a 2027 public debut due to market conditions and competitive pressures, causing market uncertainty.
OpenAI Leans Toward Delaying Initial Public Offering Until 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%32%
Reports emerged that OpenAI executives and advisers are leaning toward holding off on the IPO until 2027 due to valuation concerns and market conditions, causing 'No IPO' odds to surge.
Legal victory clears major obstacle for OpenAI IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 77%6%
A federal judge dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI regarding its restructuring, removing a significant legal cloud and clearing the way for the IPO process to advance, positively impacting market confidence.
Reports emerge OpenAI leans toward delaying IPO to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 85%18%
Multiple sources including the New York Times reported that OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO until 2027 to avoid accepting a lower valuation amid volatile market conditions and the rocky post-IPO performance of SpaceX. CEO Sam Altman reportedly rejected any valuation below $1 trillion.
Reports suggest OpenAI may delay IPO to 2027 amid market volatility
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 82%5%
Following SpaceX's rocky IPO debut and broader tech market volatility, reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO privately suggested delaying the IPO to 2027 to ensure financial readiness and meet public company reporting standards, dampening near-term IPO expectations.
Reports emerge of OpenAI IPO delay to 2027 amid market volatility
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 31%45%
Media reports indicated OpenAI may postpone its IPO to 2027 due to tech stock volatility and cautious investor demand, dampening near-term IPO expectations.
Reports indicate OpenAI IPO likely delayed to 2027 due to market conditions
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 82%3%
Multiple sources reported that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027, influenced by the volatile tech market and SpaceX's large but volatile IPO. This caused a significant increase in market pricing for 'No IPO by December 31, 2026'.
Reports emerge that OpenAI may delay IPO to 2027 due to market volatility and valuation concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 48%19%
Following SpaceX's volatile IPO and ongoing tech market turbulence, reports indicated OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman and advisers were leaning toward postponing the IPO to 2027 to avoid a lower valuation and unfavorable market conditions.
Reports emerge of OpenAI considering IPO delay to 2027 amid market volatility
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 46%23%
Following SpaceX's volatile post-IPO performance and broader tech market uncertainty, reports surfaced in late June 2026 that OpenAI was considering delaying its IPO to 2027 to better position for a $1 trillion valuation, causing market skepticism about a 2026 listing.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO readiness and retail investor share allocation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 71%15%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar's statements about preparing to act like a public company and reserving shares for retail investors boosted market confidence in a future IPO, causing a rebound in market prices for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
Reports emerge of potential OpenAI IPO delay to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 69%13%
A New York Times report indicated that OpenAI might delay its IPO debut until 2027 due to caution following SpaceX's IPO performance and internal readiness concerns. This news caused market participants to lower the probability of a 2026 IPO announcement.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO delayed to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 70%9%
A New York Times report indicated that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027 due to cautious market conditions following SpaceX's IPO and internal readiness concerns. This news caused a drop in the probability of a 2026 IPO and increased the market's expectation of no IPO by the end of 2026.
Reports emerge that OpenAI is leaning toward delaying IPO until 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 79%28%
Following SpaceX's IPO and market volatility, OpenAI's advisers cautioned about retail investor enthusiasm, leading to reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027, which caused a significant drop in market odds for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI announces Guaranteed Capacity product for long-term compute access
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%8%
OpenAI introduced long-term compute capacity contracts, signaling significant infrastructure commitments that highlight the company's massive capital needs, which may delay IPO timing and affect valuation expectations.
Anthropic IPO filing intensifies AI IPO competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 28%3%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing and potential earlier listing put pressure on OpenAI, affecting market expectations and increasing uncertainty about OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO delayed to 2027 amid internal concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%19%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar recommended delaying the IPO to 2027 due to readiness and financial reporting challenges, dampening market expectations for a 2026 IPO and boosting the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines broad vision amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 72%2%
Following the confidential IPO filing, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly outlined ambitious goals including building an automated AI researcher and delivering personal AGI to everyone. This reinforced investor interest and market optimism about OpenAI's growth potential and IPO prospects, supporting the market's positive pricing for an IPO by end of 2026.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals IPO delay due to readiness concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 45%22%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO, suggesting a possible delay to 2027. This dampened market expectations for an imminent IPO and lowered confidence in higher valuation brackets.
Reports highlight OpenAI’s massive revenue growth and infrastructure spending ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 29%18%
Reports revealed OpenAI's projected 2026 revenue exceeding $25 billion but with a $27 billion cash burn, raising concerns about profitability and influencing market skepticism on earlier IPO dates. This contributed to fluctuating market probabilities and tempered enthusiasm for a near-term IPO.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman emphasizes cautious IPO timing despite filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 44%26%
Sam Altman stated that OpenAI had not decided on IPO timing and that remaining private offered advantages, which contributed to market skepticism about an imminent IPO and kept probabilities for near-term IPO outcomes low.
SpaceX IPO sets record, intensifying pressure on OpenAI's IPO timeline
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 45%12%
SpaceX's successful IPO and record valuation heightened market focus on AI-related IPOs, increasing pressure on OpenAI to proceed with its own IPO, causing volatility and shifts in market-implied probabilities for OpenAI's IPO outcomes.
OpenAI partnership with Visa announced amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%8%
OpenAI announced a strategic partnership with Visa to support secure payments in AI-driven commerce, signaling business expansion and strengthening enterprise positioning ahead of a potential IPO. This partnership positively influenced market sentiment about OpenAI's growth prospects.
OpenAI discloses Q1 2026 financials showing $5.7 billion revenue and $3.7 billion cash burn
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 48%9%
OpenAI revealed significant revenue alongside high cash burn in Q1 2026, highlighting financial challenges ahead of its IPO and contributing to market uncertainty about valuation and timing.
OpenAI discloses financial metrics showing high revenue and losses ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 48%22%
OpenAI revealed in shareholder documents that it generated $5.7 billion in Q1 2026 revenue but also incurred $3.7 billion in cash burn, highlighting the company's aggressive spending and raising investor concerns about profitability and valuation sustainability ahead of the IPO.
Leaked audited financials reveal OpenAI's $38.5 billion net loss in 2025
Audited financial documents leaked and verified by the Financial Times revealed OpenAI's massive $38.5 billion net loss in 2025 on $13.07 billion revenue, highlighting the company's significant cash burn and raising concerns about profitability ahead of the IPO.
OpenAI announces strategic partnership with Visa amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%10%
OpenAI partnered with Visa to support secure AI-driven payments, signaling enterprise growth focus and IPO readiness, which influenced market expectations positively.
OpenAI discloses $34 billion spending ahead of planned IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%22%
Reports revealed OpenAI's massive spending in 2025, including $19 billion on R&D, highlighting financial challenges that may affect IPO timing and valuation, tempering market enthusiasm.
OpenAI reports $38.5 billion net loss for 2025, raising IPO concerns
Audited financial documents released in mid-June 2026 revealed OpenAI's $38.5 billion net loss in 2025, highlighting the company's massive spending and losses. This disclosure raised concerns about the company's profitability and IPO valuation, dampening market enthusiasm for a 2026 IPO.
SpaceX goes public in blockbuster IPO, shifting market attention to mega-cap tech valuations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 48%22%
SpaceX successfully completed its highly anticipated initial public offering, immediately shifting investor focus and capital toward private tech giants and raising questions about when OpenAI might follow suit.
Reports emerge of OpenAI CFO urging IPO delay to 2027 over revenue and spending concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 28%12%
Reports that CFO Sarah Friar advocated delaying the IPO to 2027 due to missed revenue targets and large compute spending commitments caused market confidence in a 2026 IPO to wane significantly.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar expresses reservations about 2026 IPO readiness
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 29%31%
Reports surfaced that CFO Sarah Friar advocated delaying the IPO to 2027 due to financial and operational concerns, including heavy spending and the need to meet public company reporting standards. This internal conflict introduced market skepticism and caused a decline in near-term IPO optimism.
Anthropic files confidential IPO, intensifying AI IPO competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 33%5%
Anthropic, OpenAI's main competitor, filed confidentially for its own IPO, increasing competitive pressure and market uncertainty about OpenAI's valuation and timing, which influenced market probabilities across valuation brackets.
Reports suggest OpenAI IPO may be delayed to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%6%
News emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar expressed concerns about readiness and market conditions, indicating a possible IPO delay to 2027, which caused market sentiment to shift toward a lower chance of a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO urges delaying IPO to 2027 citing revenue and spending concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%40%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar advocated postponing the IPO to 2027 due to missed revenue targets and large compute spending commitments, causing market confidence in a 2026 IPO to decline sharply.
Reports emerge of OpenAI IPO delay to 2027 influenced by SpaceX market debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 46%22%
Multiple reports indicated OpenAI's IPO was delayed to 2027 due to cautious advisors concerned about market conditions, especially after SpaceX's volatile public debut. This news shifted market sentiment strongly toward no IPO in 2026, reflected in falling prices for IPO outcomes.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 71%1%
OpenAI's engagement with major financial institutions Citigroup and JPMorgan indicated progress toward an IPO, supporting market confidence in a public offering by the end of 2026, though immediate timing remained uncertain.
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing triggers AI sector valuation reset
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing at a $1 trillion+ valuation created a sector-wide reset, impacting capital rotation and investor sentiment across AI companies, reinforcing expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO signals preference for 2027 IPO due to readiness concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 35%15%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar privately suggested delaying the IPO until 2027, citing concerns about the company's readiness to meet public reporting standards and the need to stabilize financials, which tempered market enthusiasm for a 2026 IPO.
SpaceX posts $1.77 trillion valuation in record‑setting IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 72%4%
SpaceX completed the largest IPO ever, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. The record‑setting debut heightened investor appetite for mega‑cap tech offerings and temporarily lifted expectations for OpenAI’s valuation, contributing to a price rise.
SpaceX completes historic $75 billion IPO, reaching $1.75 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 55%24%
SpaceX's record-breaking IPO intensified competition for investor capital among AI and tech IPOs, influencing market dynamics and expectations for OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
SpaceX completes largest IPO in history, valued near $2 trillion
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 52%21%
SpaceX's record-breaking IPO set a new benchmark for mega-cap listings, influencing market sentiment and cautioning OpenAI on timing its own IPO amid volatile tech stock performance.
SpaceX completes record $1.77 trillion IPO, setting tech IPO benchmark
SpaceX completed the largest IPO ever on June 12, 2026, with a $1.77 trillion valuation, briefly surpassing $2 trillion. This event set a high benchmark for tech IPOs and influenced market sentiment and expectations for OpenAI's upcoming IPO.
Elon Musk loses lawsuit against OpenAI, clearing IPO path
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 75%5%
A legal challenge by Elon Musk alleging OpenAI's improper transition from nonprofit to for-profit was dismissed, removing a major obstacle to OpenAI's IPO. This legal resolution improved market confidence in the IPO's feasibility.
SpaceX completes record $75B IPO with $2 trillion valuation, influencing AI IPO market
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 68%18%
SpaceX's IPO became the largest in history, raising $75 billion and briefly reaching a $2 trillion valuation. The debut's volatility and subsequent price drop caused caution among investors and advisors for upcoming AI IPOs, including OpenAI's.
SpaceX completes largest IPO ever, briefly surpassing $2 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 71%5%
SpaceX's IPO on June 12, 2026, set a new record with a roughly $1.77 trillion valuation and a first-day surge past $2 trillion, influencing market sentiment and raising expectations for other AI IPOs including OpenAI.
OpenAI announces IPO filing amid AI IPO race with Anthropic and SpaceX
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 75%5%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential IPO filing, joining Anthropic and SpaceX in a highly anticipated cluster of AI-related IPOs. This intensified market focus on the AI sector's public market debut prospects and valuation dynamics.
SpaceX IPO priced at $75 billion, intensifying AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 13%14%
SpaceX's IPO pricing at $75 billion and a $2.1 trillion market cap after first day intensified competition for public AI capital, putting pressure on OpenAI's IPO timeline and valuation expectations.
SpaceX IPO raises $75 billion, sets record valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 59%4%
SpaceX's historic IPO and $2.1 trillion first-day market cap intensified competition for public AI capital, putting pressure on OpenAI's IPO timeline and valuation expectations, affecting market dynamics.
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork, intensifying AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 74%6%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing in early June 2026 increased competitive pressure on OpenAI, influencing market expectations and IPO timing considerations.
SpaceX files for IPO, raising competitive pressure on OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 65%2%
SpaceX filed for its IPO, expected to be the largest in history, increasing competitive pressure on OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation. This event contributed to market uncertainty and volatility around OpenAI's IPO prospects.
SpaceX IPO sets record, intensifying AI IPO race with OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 16%14%
SpaceX's $75 billion IPO set records and intensified the race for public AI capital, putting pressure on OpenAI to follow suit. The high-profile SpaceX IPO influenced market focus on AI-related IPOs, affecting timing expectations and competitive positioning for OpenAI's IPO.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 72%3%
OpenAI's engagement with major financial institutions Citigroup and JPMorgan indicated progress toward an IPO, supporting market expectations for a year-end IPO despite ongoing uncertainty about exact timing.
SpaceX completes record-breaking $75 billion IPO with $1.75 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 47%9%
SpaceX's historic IPO on June 12, 2026, set new records and intensified competition for public AI capital. This event influenced market dynamics and investor appetite, putting pressure on OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation expectations.
SpaceX IPO scheduled, adding pressure to AI IPO market
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 48%2%
SpaceX announced its IPO date for June 12, 2026, expected to be the largest IPO in history. This event added competitive pressure on OpenAI and Anthropic, affecting market dynamics and investor appetite for AI IPOs, contributing to market uncertainty about OpenAI's IPO timing.
SpaceX completes record-breaking IPO with $2.1 trillion market cap
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 65%15%
SpaceX's historic IPO, with a first-day valuation exceeding $2 trillion, set a new benchmark for mega-IPOs and influenced market sentiment around other AI-related IPOs, including OpenAI's, by highlighting investor appetite and risks.
SpaceX completes record $75 billion IPO, reaching $1.77 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
SpaceX's successful IPO and massive valuation debut set a high bar for AI IPOs, causing OpenAI and others to reconsider timing and market conditions. The volatility in SpaceX's stock contributed to speculation that OpenAI might delay its IPO.
SpaceX completes record $1.77 trillion IPO, influencing AI IPO market
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 68%2%
SpaceX completed the largest IPO ever on June 12, 2026, with a $1.77 trillion valuation, setting a benchmark for mega-cap tech IPOs and impacting market sentiment and caution around OpenAI's upcoming IPO.
Coalition of U.S. state attorneys general opens investigation into OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%17%
A multistate investigation was launched into OpenAI's safety, advertising, and data handling practices just days after its IPO filing, adding regulatory risk and scrutiny ahead of the public offering.
SpaceX IPO debuts, setting valuation benchmark for AI tech listings
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 65%1%
SpaceX's IPO, expected to be the largest ever, debuted on June 12, 2026, influencing investor appetite and setting a high bar for subsequent AI IPOs including OpenAI's. This event contributed to market reassessment of OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing legal uncertainty
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 69%3%
A federal jury ruled in favor of OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman in Elon Musk’s lawsuit, removing a major legal obstacle to OpenAI’s IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and positively impacted market sentiment, causing a modest rise in probabilities for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO delay to 2027 due to readiness concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%33%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated that the IPO might be delayed from 2026 to 2027, citing challenges in meeting public company reporting standards and internal readiness. This announcement dampened market expectations for a 2026 IPO, increasing the probability of no IPO by year-end and causing a pullback in high valuation outcomes.
OpenAI reports $2 billion monthly revenue, signaling rapid growth
OpenAI disclosed monthly revenues of $2 billion and expanding user base, highlighting strong financial performance and growth beyond ChatGPT, which bolstered market confidence in the company's valuation and IPO prospects.
Market reacts to OpenAI's high spending and profitability concerns ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%17%
Reports highlighted OpenAI's massive infrastructure spending commitments and projected losses, raising investor concerns about profitability timelines and contributing to market skepticism about a near-term IPO, reflected in fluctuating market prices.
OpenAI CEO emphasizes enterprise productivity focus ahead of potential Q4 IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 43%5%
Statements from OpenAI's CEO of Applications about focusing on enterprise productivity tools and readiness for a potential Q4 2026 IPO increased market confidence in a late 2026 public offering.
Altman warns rapid AI progress may delay IPO
500–750B dips to 1%3%
Sam Altman told staff that rapid AI advances could delay the IPO, tempering bullish sentiment and dragging price down toward the 500–750 B range.
OpenAI engages Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for IPO preparation
1T–1.25T jumps to 21%14%
Reports confirmed OpenAI is working with major investment banks to prepare its confidential IPO prospectus, targeting a potential September 2026 public debut, increasing market optimism for the IPO.
OpenAI's IPO filing intensifies competition with Anthropic and SpaceX IPOs
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 27%2%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing amid SpaceX and Anthropic's IPO preparations intensified the race for public AI capital, putting pressure on OpenAI's timeline and valuation, causing market volatility and fluctuating probabilities across valuation brackets.
Sam Altman tells staff IPO likely within next year, suggesting delay to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 48%22%
CEO Sam Altman communicated to OpenAI staff that the IPO was expected "within the next year," implying a possible delay beyond 2026. This tempered market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and caused a repricing toward a later timeline, reducing the probability of a 2026 IPO.
SpaceX files IPO prospectus, intensifying listing window crowding
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 48%5%
SpaceX’s high‑profile IPO filing highlighted a crowded autumn listing window, causing a slight dip in the ‘No IPO’ outcome as market participants worried about investor appetite.
Sam Altman tempers IPO timing expectations to within next year
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 51%22%
CEO Sam Altman told staff to expect an IPO within the next year, which markets interpreted as a possible delay into 2027, causing a repricing of IPO timing probabilities.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 76%2%
OpenAI's engagement with major financial institutions indicated progress toward IPO readiness, supporting market confidence in a 2026 IPO despite some timeline uncertainty.
OpenAI targets $1 trillion valuation for IPO debut possible as early as September
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 50%4%
Reports indicated OpenAI was targeting a valuation near $1 trillion for a potential IPO debut as early as September 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a late 2026 public offering despite some internal debate on timing.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines vision amid IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 48%6%
Following the confidential IPO filing, CEO Sam Altman published a blog post outlining OpenAI's vision for AI development and the company's strategic considerations about going public, emphasizing the complexity of timing and benefits of remaining private for now. This tempered immediate IPO expectations but confirmed long-term plans.
Federal jury rules in favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk lawsuit
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 46%6%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and reducing uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO plans, which positively influenced market sentiment.
OpenAI files confidential IPO paperwork amid AI IPO wave
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing was part of a broader wave of AI company IPOs including SpaceX and Anthropic, highlighting the sector's rapid growth and increasing investor interest in AI public listings.
OpenAI files confidential IPO paperwork amid AI IPO race with Anthropic and SpaceX
1T–1.25T plunges to 7%43%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing came shortly after rival Anthropic's filing and just before SpaceX's IPO, intensifying the competition among AI companies to go public. This heightened market anticipation for OpenAI's IPO and its valuation prospects.
OpenAI joins AI rivals in preparing for public market debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 62%9%
OpenAI announced plans to go public shortly after Anthropic and SpaceX, signaling a new era where AI companies will face Wall Street scrutiny, increasing investor interest and speculation about valuation and timing.
Federal court dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%16%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal overhang, clearing a major obstacle for OpenAI's IPO plans and boosting investor confidence in the company's public listing timeline.
OpenAI announces confidential IPO filing publicly
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%23%
OpenAI proactively announced its confidential IPO filing, emphasizing the option to go public sooner if conditions are favorable, which reassured investors about IPO progress but also highlighted timing uncertainty.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 69%9%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential IPO filing, emphasizing the company's valuation and vision, which reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO and increased investor interest in the company's public debut.
OpenAI files IPO paperwork amid AI investment race intensification
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 78%11%
Following its confidential filing, OpenAI publicly announced its IPO filing, joining rivals Anthropic and SpaceX in the race to public markets. The announcement underscored OpenAI's valuation and ambitions but also highlighted that timing was undecided, contributing to market uncertainty and cautious optimism.
OpenAI's IPO filing sparks market debate on valuation and timing amid losses
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 65%5%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing revealed massive losses and a projected cash burn of $14 billion in 2026, raising questions about profitability and valuation. This disclosure contributed to market uncertainty and influenced the probability pricing for various IPO valuation brackets.
OpenAI engages Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan as lead underwriters for IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 84%34%
OpenAI selected major investment banks Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan to lead its IPO, signaling serious progress toward a public offering and supporting market confidence in a 2026 listing.
OpenAI announces IPO filing amid AI market surge
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 67%11%
Following the confidential filing, OpenAI publicly announced its IPO plans, highlighting its valuation near $852 billion and positioning it among the largest companies in the S&P 500. This announcement reinforced market expectations for a large IPO, impacting the probabilities of higher valuation brackets slightly.
OpenAI's IPO filing positions it among top AI companies racing to Wall Street
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing followed similar moves by competitors Anthropic and SpaceX, highlighting a competitive race to public markets. The filing underscored OpenAI's valuation and ambitions, reinforcing market expectations for a significant IPO event.
OpenAI IPO filing seen as part of $3 trillion AI IPO wave including SpaceX and Anthropic
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing was recognized as a key event in a historic $3 trillion IPO wave involving SpaceX and Anthropic, reshaping capital flows in the AI sector and increasing investor focus on these mega-cap listings.
OpenAI's IPO filing follows Anthropic and precedes SpaceX's record IPO
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing came shortly after rival Anthropic's filing and just before SpaceX's historic IPO, highlighting a competitive cluster of mega-IPOs in AI and tech that influenced market dynamics and valuation expectations.
OpenAI files confidential SEC paperwork for IPO, eyes Wall Street debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 89%11%
OpenAI's confidential SEC filing was publicly announced, highlighting its valuation as one of the largest in the S&P 500 and reinforcing market expectations for a significant IPO. This announcement contributed to a surge in market optimism about the IPO occurring within the analysis window.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines broad vision amid IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 79%3%
Following the confidential IPO filing, CEO Sam Altman shared OpenAI's ambitious goals including building automated AI researchers and delivering personal AGI, reinforcing investor interest and IPO anticipation.
SpaceX and OpenAI file IPO paperwork on same day, amplifying AI hype
1.25T–1.5T rises to 13%2%
Simultaneous announcements of SpaceX and OpenAI IPO filings drew investor attention to the AI sector, nudging the 1.25T–1.5T bracket upward to 13%.
OpenAI files confidential SEC paperwork for IPO, targeting $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T plunges to 7%43%
OpenAI filed confidential IPO paperwork with the SEC on June 9, 2026, aiming for a valuation that would place it among the largest companies in the S&P 500. This filing intensified market focus on OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation, supporting the possibility of a 2026 IPO but also highlighting the company's significant capital needs and losses.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
Engagement with major financial institutions signaled progress toward IPO readiness, supporting market confidence in a potential IPO by year-end 2026, though immediate timeline impact was limited.
OpenAI engages Citigroup, JPMorgan for IPO discussions
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 67%3%
OpenAI's engagement with major financial institutions indicated progress toward an IPO, reinforcing market expectations for a public offering by the end of 2026. This development supported a positive outlook for the IPO but did not confirm timing, contributing to moderate price movements.
OpenAI files preliminary IPO paperwork, joining Anthropic and SpaceX
OpenAI filed preliminary paperwork to become publicly traded, marking a key milestone in its IPO process and confirming the company's imminent public market debut alongside other AI and tech giants.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 85%35%
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential IPO filing, emphasizing the option to go public sooner if conditions are favorable. This announcement reinforced market expectations for an IPO within the analysis window, impacting the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome positively.
OpenAI IPO filing signals $1 trillion+ valuation and massive AI market impact
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 67%3%
The confidential IPO filing by OpenAI is seen as a 'Trillion-Dollar IPO Test' for the AI sector, expected to trigger a liquidity event and significant market capitalization, reinforcing expectations for a historic IPO.
OpenAI files for IPO amid AI rivals' public listing race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 65%9%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing came shortly after Anthropic's similar filing and just before SpaceX's IPO, highlighting intense competition in the AI sector. Market participants noted OpenAI's undecided timing and the pressure from rivals, contributing to volatility and tempered IPO optimism.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 with SEC, signaling IPO readiness
OpenAI filed its confidential S-1 registration statement with the SEC, confirming its intent to go public and setting the stage for a potential IPO in late 2026. The filing revealed financials showing rapid revenue growth but significant losses and capital needs.
Anthropic files confidential IPO prospectus, intensifying competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%5%
Anthropic, OpenAI's main competitor, also filed confidentially for an IPO, increasing competitive pressure and investor scrutiny on OpenAI's valuation and timing. This rivalry influenced market dynamics and sustained some uncertainty about OpenAI's readiness and valuation.
OpenAI files confidential SEC paperwork for IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 85%35%
OpenAI announced it had confidentially filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC, marking a key step toward going public. This filing increased market confidence in an eventual IPO but left timing uncertain, supporting the "No IPO by December 31, 2026" outcome as investors awaited further details.
OpenAI announces confidential IPO filing publicly
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 83%33%
OpenAI publicly disclosed its confidential S-1 filing, signaling readiness to go public while emphasizing that timing is undecided. This transparency helped solidify market expectations for an IPO in late 2026 or early 2027.
OpenAI joins AI rivals in race to public markets with confidential IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%15%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing placed it in direct competition with Anthropic and SpaceX, both also preparing for public listings. This intensified market focus on OpenAI's valuation and timing, with expectations for a Q4 2026 IPO but uncertainty about being first to market.
OpenAI submits confidential IPO filing to SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%17%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, confirming its intent to go public. The company announced the filing proactively, acknowledging the information would likely leak, which reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI Confidentially Files for IPO with the SEC
750B–1T jumps to 21%14%
OpenAI officially submitted its confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, joining rivals Anthropic and SpaceX in a historic wave of megacap public listings.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential IPO filing amid AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 66%7%
On June 8, 2026, OpenAI announced it had confidentially submitted its S-1 registration statement to the SEC, confirming its IPO plans and intensifying speculation about a potential $1 trillion valuation and a public listing in late 2026.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO targeting September 2026
1.5T+ rises to 12%3%
OpenAI filed a confidential S-1 registration statement with the SEC, signaling its intent to go public in September 2026 with a valuation potentially reaching $1 trillion, driving market expectations and price adjustments.
OpenAI officially submits confidential S-1 draft registration statement to SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 52%24%
OpenAI confirmed it submitted a confidential Form S-1 to the SEC, but noted that the timing remains fluid and it still has goals to achieve as a private company.
OpenAI files confidential draft S-1 with SEC targeting $1 trillion valuation
OpenAI filed a confidential draft S-1 with the SEC, confirming active IPO preparations and targeting a valuation above $1 trillion with a potential September 2026 debut.
OpenAI announces confidential IPO filing with SEC, joining AI IPO race
On June 8, 2026, OpenAI publicly announced its confidential IPO filing, confirming its plans to go public and joining Anthropic and SpaceX in a wave of large AI-related IPOs. The announcement reinforced market expectations of a $1 trillion-plus valuation and a late 2026 listing window.
OpenAI officially files confidential IPO application with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 67%3%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential IPO filing with the SEC, confirming its intent to go public and targeting a valuation near $1 trillion, which reinforced market expectations for a large IPO in late 2026 or early 2027.
OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing amid AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%28%
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential IPO filing, joining Anthropic and SpaceX in a wave of anticipated large tech IPOs, which heightened investor interest and market activity.
OpenAI officially announces confidential S-1 IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 64%11%
OpenAI publicly announced it had confidentially submitted its S-1 registration statement to the SEC, confirming IPO plans but emphasizing timing remains uncertain, which maintained market interest but also caution.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
Reports emerged that OpenAI engaged major banks Citigroup and JPMorgan to discuss IPO plans, indicating progress toward a public offering and supporting market confidence in a 2026 IPO. This development suggested financial readiness and regulatory preparation for the IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 registration statement with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 81%31%
OpenAI submitted confidential IPO paperwork to the SEC, signaling a formal step toward a public offering with a target valuation near $1 trillion, intensifying market speculation and impacting pricing across IPO valuation brackets.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential S-1 submission and IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 65%12%
OpenAI announced it had submitted a confidential S-1 filing and expected the information to leak, but emphasized no fixed timing for the IPO, which tempered market enthusiasm and maintained uncertainty about the IPO timing.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 registration statement with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%15%
OpenAI filed confidential IPO paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 8, 2026, marking a formal step toward going public. The company stated it had not decided on timing, indicating the IPO could be delayed despite the filing.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential IPO filing with $850B-$1T valuation range
OpenAI confirmed it had confidentially filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC, targeting a valuation between $850 billion and $1 trillion, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters. The announcement intensified speculation about a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confirms confidential S-1 filing with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
OpenAI officially announced it had confidentially submitted its draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, marking the first formal step toward an IPO but without setting a date. This confirmation reinforced market expectations but also highlighted timing uncertainty.
OpenAI publicly announces IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 52%11%
OpenAI publicly announced its IPO filing, confirming plans for a public listing in 2026 and reinforcing market expectations for a significant valuation near $1 trillion.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO with SEC, announces filing publicly
OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, officially starting the IPO process and confirming market speculation, which increased confidence in an IPO but left timing uncertain.
OpenAI targets $850 billion to $1 trillion valuation for IPO
1T–1.25T plunges to 3%47%
Reports indicated OpenAI's IPO valuation near $850 billion, with some analysts expecting it to exceed $1 trillion. This valuation positioned OpenAI as one of the largest tech IPOs, fueling market speculation about a significant public offering in late 2026.
OpenAI confidentially files draft IPO registration with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 53%3%
OpenAI announced it submitted a confidential draft registration statement (Form S-1) to the SEC, signaling a formal step toward going public and causing a spike in market optimism about a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO registration with SEC
1.5T+ surges to 46%34%
OpenAI submitted its S-1 registration statement confidentially to the SEC, a formal step toward going public. This filing confirmed market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and drove a rise in the highest valuation bracket probabilities.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential IPO filing with SEC
1.5T+ jumps to 62%6%
OpenAI publicly disclosed its confidential IPO filing, confirming its intent to go public and highlighting a valuation near $1 trillion, which boosted market confidence in a high-value IPO outcome.
OpenAI files confidential IPO amid AI industry race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing came shortly after Anthropic's similar filing and just before SpaceX's expected IPO, highlighting a competitive cluster of mega-IPOs in AI and tech, which affected market dynamics and investor expectations.
OpenAI targets valuation up to $850 billion in IPO filing
OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO with an estimated valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion, positioning it as one of the most valuable AI companies to go public. This filing reinforced market expectations for a high-value IPO but also highlighted ongoing uncertainties about timing and profitability.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 for IPO with SEC
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 15%5%
OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 filing to the SEC, officially starting the IPO process and increasing market confidence in a public listing, which contributed to price gains in the 1.25T–1.5T bracket.
OpenAI officially announces confidential IPO filing with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 70%7%
OpenAI publicly announced its confidential IPO filing on June 8, 2026, confirming its intent to go public with a target valuation around $1 trillion. The announcement followed rival Anthropic's similar filing and preceded SpaceX's record-breaking IPO, intensifying market focus on AI mega-IPOs.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 28%2%
OpenAI announced it had confidentially submitted its Form S-1 to the SEC but emphasized that the IPO timing was undecided and might be delayed. This tempered near-term IPO expectations and caused a drop in market probabilities for a 2026 IPO, reflecting executive caution and strategic considerations.
OpenAI engages Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters for IPO
OpenAI engaged major investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to lead its IPO underwriting, indicating serious preparations for a public offering and supporting market expectations for a late 2026 listing.
OpenAI IPO filing highlights ChatGPT monetization potential
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
The confidential IPO filing brought attention to OpenAI's plans to monetize ChatGPT beyond subscriptions, signaling commercial growth potential that could influence valuation and investor interest.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus and announces IPO intention
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 47%21%
OpenAI officially announced submitting a confidential draft registration statement (Form S-1) to the SEC, signaling a formal step toward going public but emphasizing timing remains uncertain, which caused a market spike in IPO announcement odds.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO legal hurdle
1.5T+ jumps to 11%7%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and boosting market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects and higher valuation outcomes.
OpenAI files confidential IPO paperwork with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 85%35%
OpenAI submitted confidential S-1 paperwork to the SEC, marking a major step toward going public and generating significant investor interest. This filing increased market confidence in an IPO by the end of 2026, supporting the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome price rise.
OpenAI confidentially files S‑1 with SEC
1.5T+ surges to 52%22%
OpenAI filed a confidential S‑1 registration statement with the SEC, confirming it will pursue a public listing. The filing lifted expectations for a 2026 IPO and pushed the market toward the higher valuation brackets, especially 1.5T+.
OpenAI employee tender offer underway at $852 billion valuation
Following the confidential IPO filing, OpenAI initiated an employee tender offer at an $852 billion valuation, signaling internal confidence in the IPO process and providing liquidity to employees ahead of a public listing.
OpenAI IPO filing signals valuation battle with Anthropic and SpaceX
OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing marked a historic step in the AI IPO race alongside Anthropic and SpaceX, highlighting a valuation battle and intense market competition. The filing underscored OpenAI’s readiness to face public market scrutiny and set a valuation benchmark near $1 trillion.
OpenAI valued at $852 billion after $122 billion funding round
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 53%8%
Following its confidential IPO filing, OpenAI's valuation was pegged at about $852 billion after a large funding round, making it one of the most highly valued listings in market history despite profitability challenges.
OpenAI submits confidential S-1 IPO filing to SEC, joining AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 48%18%
OpenAI submitted its confidential S-1 filing to the SEC, confirming its intent to go public and joining Anthropic and SpaceX in a crowded autumn IPO window. This filing marked a critical step toward a public listing and influenced market expectations for a Q4 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman outlines broad vision amid IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Alongside the IPO filing announcement, CEO Sam Altman shared OpenAI's goals including building an automated AI researcher and delivering personal AGI to everyone, reinforcing the company's long-term growth potential and justifying high valuation expectations.
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing follows rival Anthropic's filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
OpenAI's IPO filing came shortly after Anthropic's similar move, intensifying the AI IPO race and increasing investor focus on OpenAI's market debut prospects and valuation compared to its competitors.
OpenAI confidentially submits draft S-1 registration statement to SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 85%16%
The confidential submission of the draft S-1 on June 8, 2026, confirmed OpenAI's IPO intentions with a target valuation of $1 trillion or higher, reinforcing market expectations for a major public offering and impacting related AI sector valuations.
OpenAI announces strategic partnership with Visa amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%10%
OpenAI and Visa announced a partnership to support secure payments in AI-driven commerce, signaling operational scaling as OpenAI prepares for a potential public listing. This partnership highlighted OpenAI's enterprise growth focus and competitive positioning ahead of its IPO.
Federal jury dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%9%
A federal jury ruled in favor of OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman by dismissing Elon Musk's lawsuit, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory boosted market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing and targets September debut
1.5T+ jumps to 14%10%
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential IPO filing with the SEC, aiming for a September 2026 debut with a valuation up to $1 trillion, reinforcing market expectations for a 2026 IPO and boosting the highest valuation bracket probabilities.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO registration with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 53%40%
OpenAI officially filed confidentially for its IPO with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, signaling a likely IPO in late 2026 and causing a significant rise in market probabilities for the IPO and higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO with SEC, targeting $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T plunges to 7%43%
OpenAI filed confidential paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, marking a major step toward going public with a valuation expected to be among the largest in market history. This filing increased market confidence in an IPO occurring, supporting higher probabilities for the event.
OpenAI publicly announces confidential S-1 filing, clarifies IPO timing uncertain
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 70%7%
OpenAI disclosed its confidential S-1 filing and stated it had not decided on IPO timing, indicating the process may take time due to private company advantages. This tempered immediate expectations for a 2026 IPO but confirmed the company's intent to go public.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 with SEC
OpenAI officially confidentially filed its draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC, marking the first formal step toward a public listing and confirming IPO plans.
OpenAI files confidential IPO paperwork with SEC
1.5T+ rises to 3%1%
OpenAI officially filed confidential S-1 paperwork with the SEC, marking a formal step toward going public and signaling a potential valuation of $1 trillion or higher. This filing intensified market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and contributed to increased probabilities for higher valuation brackets in the prediction market.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with U.S. SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 54%25%
OpenAI's confidential S-1 filing officially initiated the IPO process, confirming plans to go public but leaving timing undecided. This event increased market certainty about an eventual IPO but maintained uncertainty on exact timing and valuation.
OpenAI announces IPO filing amid cluster of AI company public offerings
OpenAI's announcement of its confidential IPO filing came shortly after rival Anthropic's filing and during SpaceX's IPO roadshow, highlighting a competitive AI IPO environment and increasing market attention.
OpenAI confidentially files Form S-1 with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 31%3%
OpenAI submitted its confidential IPO filing to the SEC, joining Anthropic and SpaceX in a crowded AI IPO race, signaling a major step toward going public and influencing market pricing toward an IPO event.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 registration statement with SEC
OpenAI officially submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement to the SEC, marking the first formal step toward an IPO. The filing confirmed the company's intent to go public but did not set a firm timeline, maintaining market uncertainty about the IPO date.
OpenAI files for IPO as AI investment race intensifies
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
OpenAI's IPO filing came shortly after rival Anthropic's similar move and just before SpaceX's anticipated IPO, intensifying competition among AI companies for public market attention. This context contributed to market speculation and valuation adjustments.
OpenAI publicly announces IPO filing, targets September debut
OpenAI publicly confirmed its confidential IPO filing with the SEC, aiming for a September 2026 debut with a valuation up to $1 trillion. This announcement further solidified market expectations for a 2026 IPO and contributed to the highest odds for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion.
OpenAI targets IPO as soon as September 2026 with $730B-$850B valuation
1.5T+ surges to 42%16%
Reports indicated OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on a confidential IPO filing targeting a September 2026 debut with a private-market valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion, reinforcing market expectations for a large IPO in 2026.
Market reassesses OpenAI IPO timing amid reports of potential delay to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 26%6%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI's CFO suggested delaying the IPO to 2027 due to readiness concerns, causing market confidence in a 2026 IPO and high valuation to decline sharply. This led to a drop in prices for the $1.5 trillion-plus and other high valuation outcomes, reflecting increased uncertainty.
Florida files lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO over ChatGPT safety concerns
Florida became the first state to sue OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, alleging concealment of serious risks associated with ChatGPT, increasing regulatory scrutiny and adding uncertainty to OpenAI's IPO prospects.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 30%29%
OpenAI's engagement with major banks Citigroup and JPMorgan indicated progress toward an IPO, boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO and supporting the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome price recovery.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
Anthropic, a key competitor to OpenAI, confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, increasing competitive pressure and influencing market expectations for OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation.
Anthropic Confidentially Files for IPO on US Stock Market
1.5T+ surges to 30%26%
OpenAI's chief rival, Anthropic, filed confidential S-1 paperwork with the SEC to go public. This move intensified the race for public AI capital and put pressure on OpenAI to follow suit.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO delay to 2027 due to readiness concerns
In early June 2026, OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated that the IPO might be delayed from 2026 to 2027, citing challenges in meeting public company reporting standards and internal readiness. This announcement dampened market expectations for a 2026 IPO, increasing the probability of no IPO by year-end.
Rival Anthropic Confidentially Files for Public Listing
1.5T+ surges to 41%20%
Anthropic submitted its draft S-1 filing, intensifying the race to go public and boosting market expectations for high-valuation AI listings in late 2026.
Anthropic files confidential IPO, intensifying AI IPO race
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing raised its valuation above OpenAI's, intensifying competition and investor scrutiny in the AI IPO space. This development influenced market perceptions of OpenAI's IPO timing and valuation prospects.
Anthropic files confidential S‑1 with $965 billion valuation
1.5T+ dips to 4%3%
Anthropic filed a confidential S‑1, reporting a $965 billion post‑money valuation that surpassed OpenAI’s $852 billion figure. The competitive pressure shifted market sentiment, causing a modest dip in OpenAI’s odds for the highest valuation brackets.
Rival Anthropic Confidentially Files for U.S. IPO
<500B jumps to 8%6%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing intensified the race for public capital, putting pressure on OpenAI's timeline and shifting market expectations.
Anthropic files confidential IPO prospectus, intensifying AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 54%1%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing at a $965 billion valuation intensified competition in the AI IPO space, influencing market dynamics and investor appetite for OpenAI's IPO prospects.
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, intensifying AI public market competition
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing in early June 2026 added pressure on OpenAI to finalize its own IPO plans, influencing market dynamics and investor sentiment around AI mega-IPOs.
Anthropic files confidentially for IPO as AI race heats up
1.5T+ surges to 30%20%
OpenAI's primary competitor, Anthropic, submitted its own confidential S-1 filing with the SEC, raising pressure on OpenAI's timeline and valuation targets.
Anthropic files confidential IPO at $965 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%5%
Anthropic's IPO filing at a $965 billion valuation intensified competition in the AI IPO race, influencing market dynamics and slightly tempering OpenAI's valuation probabilities due to competitive pressure.
Anthropic files confidential IPO draft, ramps up AI IPO race
1.25T–1.5T drops to 7%6%
Anthropic filed a confidential IPO draft, intensifying the competitive race. The news caused a modest pullback in the highest‑valuation bracket and a lift for the 1.25T–1.5T range as traders re‑priced relative risk.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, removing IPO legal hurdle
1.5T+ rises to 9%4%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI’s ability to proceed with its IPO plans, positively impacting market sentiment for a 2026 IPO.
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork, surpassing OpenAI's valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%28%
Anthropic's confidential IPO filing and $965 billion valuation overtook OpenAI's $852 billion valuation, intensifying competition in the AI IPO race and influencing market perceptions of OpenAI's relative positioning and timing for going public.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round, valuing company at $852 billion
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%42%
OpenAI's large funding round and high valuation underscored its strong market position and growth potential, supporting expectations for a high IPO valuation but also highlighting challenges in profitability and timing.
Market speculation intensifies on OpenAI IPO valuation and timing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 30%2%
Market participants debated OpenAI's IPO valuation, with some expecting a first-day market cap above $1 trillion, while others noted the company's high losses and delayed profitability. This uncertainty contributed to fluctuating market prices across valuation brackets.
Market speculation peaks on OpenAI IPO valuation and timing
Speculation about OpenAI's IPO valuation and timing peaked, with some traders expecting a first-day market cap above $1 trillion, while others noted financial losses and delayed profitability. This uncertainty contributed to fluctuating market prices across valuation brackets.
OpenAI investors optimistic despite financial challenges, eyeing $1 trillion IPO
1.5T+ surges to 30%18%
Despite financial losses and competition, investors remain optimistic about OpenAI's IPO potential, anticipating a valuation near $1 trillion and a September 2026 listing, supporting market prices for higher valuation brackets.
Anthropic closes $65 billion Series H at $965 billion valuation, intensifying AI IPO race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 85%35%
Anthropic's large funding round at a $965 billion valuation positioned it ahead of OpenAI's private valuation, intensifying competition in the AI IPO race and influencing OpenAI's timing and valuation strategy.
OpenAI publicly confirms confidential IPO filing on June 8
1.5T+ rises to 31%1%
OpenAI officially confirmed a confidential filing on June 8, pushing the market’s belief in a $1.5 T+ debut to 31%.
OpenAI's valuation and revenue projections highlight massive losses and funding needs
750B–1T dips to 5%4%
Analyses revealed OpenAI's substantial losses and high cash burn, with projected losses of $14 billion in 2026 and cumulative losses up to $115 billion by 2029, underscoring the IPO as a funding necessity rather than a celebration, influencing market caution on valuation.
Market anticipates OpenAI IPO could reach $2.5 trillion valuation by year-end
1.5T+ jumps to 30%8%
Market activity and reports suggested optimism that OpenAI's IPO could achieve a valuation as high as $2.5 trillion, reflecting bullish investor sentiment on the company's market cap potential post-IPO.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 73%5%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI removed a significant legal uncertainty, positively impacting market sentiment and supporting confidence in OpenAI's IPO plans.
Binance and Aster DEX launch OpenAI pre-IPO perpetual contracts
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 12%7%
The simultaneous listing of OpenAI pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Binance and Aster DEX indicated strong institutional and retail demand for exposure to OpenAI before its public debut, supporting higher valuation expectations.
Market reacts to internal debate over OpenAI IPO timing and CFO concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%44%
Reports emerged of internal disagreements between CEO Sam Altman pushing for a 2026 IPO and CFO Sarah Friar advocating delay to 2027 due to financial and reporting readiness concerns, causing market uncertainty and a drop in high valuation outcome prices.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, removing legal obstacle to IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 70%16%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, eliminating a significant legal uncertainty that had clouded OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory improved market sentiment and modestly increased probabilities for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI's CFO expresses concerns about IPO readiness and timing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 62%6%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar had reservations about the company's readiness for a 2026 IPO due to financial losses and internal divisions, causing some market uncertainty and a temporary dip in confidence for the IPO timing and valuation.
Market reacts to intensified competition from Anthropic and SpaceX IPOs
1.5T+ drops to 22%8%
As Anthropic and SpaceX prepared their own IPOs with high valuations, market participants reassessed OpenAI's valuation prospects amid competitive pressures and capital market dynamics, causing volatility and a decline in the highest valuation outcome prices.
Reports confirm OpenAI targets September 2026 IPO debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 74%7%
Following the confidential filing, reports confirmed OpenAI's target for a public listing as early as September 2026. This reinforced market optimism and expectations for a high valuation IPO within the year.
OpenAI targets September 2026 IPO debut amid intense competition
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 14%6%
Reports confirmed OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman is targeting a September 2026 IPO debut, aiming to raise $60 billion. The company faces competitive pressure from Anthropic and SpaceX, influencing market expectations and valuation forecasts.
Reports of imminent OpenAI IPO filing by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1.5T+ surges to 30%19%
Insider reports indicated that OpenAI was preparing to file for an IPO imminently, with major banks advising. This news caused a sharp increase in market optimism about the IPO happening soon and achieving a high valuation, reflected in a significant price jump for the $1.5 trillion-plus outcome.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 85%35%
OpenAI filed confidential S-1 paperwork with the SEC, officially starting the IPO process and signaling a potential public listing as early as September 2026 with a valuation above $1 trillion, increasing market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 registration statement with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%28%
OpenAI submitted a confidential IPO filing, signaling a formal step toward going public with a target valuation between $850 billion and $1 trillion, intensifying market speculation.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC on May 22, 2026, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion, marking a key milestone in the IPO process and impacting market expectations.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC targeting late 2026 listing
1.5T+ jumps to 56%6%
OpenAI filed confidential S-1 paperwork with the SEC, signaling formal IPO preparations with a target valuation above $1 trillion and a potential public listing between September and November 2026.
SEC acknowledges OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing
1.5T+ surges to 47%16%
The SEC confirmed receipt of OpenAI’s confidential filing, signalling that the IPO process was officially underway. The confirmation pushed the market‑cap odds back toward the 1.5T+ bracket.
OpenAI announces Guaranteed Capacity product for long-term compute commitments
1.25T–1.5T rises to 7%4%
OpenAI introduced one to three-year commitments for compute capacity, signaling strong enterprise demand and capacity planning, supporting its valuation and IPO prospects.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
1.5T+ plunges to 2%48%
OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 registration statement around May 22, 2026, signaling formal IPO preparations targeting a public listing window between September and November 2026 with a valuation above $1 trillion. This filing marked a critical step toward going public and triggered market interest in the IPO timeline and valuation.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus targeting $1 trillion valuation
OpenAI filed a confidential S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC around May 22, 2026, signaling its intent to go public with a target valuation north of $1 trillion. This filing marked the formal start of the IPO process and set market expectations for a large tech IPO in late 2026.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 68%4%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others, removing a legal overhang and reducing uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO prospects, which positively influenced market sentiment.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
1.5T+ surges to 46%20%
OpenAI officially confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus targeting a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing was a key catalyst that significantly increased market odds for an IPO by year-end and a valuation above $1.5 trillion.
OpenAI files confidential S-1 IPO prospectus targeting Q4 2026 listing
1T–1.25T rises to 14%2%
On May 22, 2026, OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, aiming for a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing was a major milestone confirming the IPO timeline and valuation range, influencing market prices accordingly.
OpenAI Confidentially Files S-1 IPO Prospectus with the SEC
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 16%13%
OpenAI submitted its confidential draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion.
OpenAI files confidential S‑1 ahead of Anthropic
750B–1T rises to 6%2%
Capital Brief reported that OpenAI’s confidential filing came ahead of Anthropic’s filing, generating a brief surge in optimism for a Q4‑2026 listing and nudging the market price for the 750B‑1T bracket upward.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO with SEC targeting $1 trillion valuation
OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 filing to the SEC around May 22, 2026, marking the first formal step toward a public offering with a target valuation above $1 trillion. This filing set expectations for a potential IPO in late 2026 and generated significant market interest.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO with SEC targeting $1 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 67%1%
OpenAI confidentially filed its draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC on or around May 22, 2026, signaling a formal step toward a public listing with a target valuation above $1 trillion, reinforcing market expectations for a late 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus targeting Q4 2026 listing
1T–1.25T rises to 13%1%
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC, aiming for a public listing in the fourth quarter of 2026 with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing confirmed the company's IPO timeline and valuation expectations, driving market activity.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
OpenAI confidentially filed its draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC around May 22, 2026, marking the first formal step toward a public offering and confirming market expectations for a late 2026 IPO window.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
OpenAI confidentially filed its draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC on May 22, 2026, targeting a Q4 2026 public listing at a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion, marking a formal step toward going public.
OpenAI files confidential IPO prospectus with SEC led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
OpenAI filed its confidential IPO prospectus around May 22, 2026, targeting a public listing window between September and November 2026 with a valuation north of $1 trillion, marking a major step toward going public.
OpenAI targets September 2026 public listing after confidential filing
1.5T+ jumps to 24%10%
Following confidential filing preparations, OpenAI reportedly aims for a public listing as soon as September 2026. This news reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO and contributed to increased pricing in higher valuation brackets.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, removing legal risk
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 67%5%
On May 21, 2026, Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI was dismissed by a jury due to delay in filing. This removal of a significant legal risk improved market sentiment towards OpenAI's IPO prospects, supporting higher confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 IPO prospectus with SEC
OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 IPO prospectus with the SEC on May 22, 2026, confirming preparations for a Q4 2026 public listing with a valuation between $852 billion and $1 trillion. This filing was a major milestone that solidified market expectations for the IPO and influenced valuation brackets.
OpenAI reports $6 billion revenue in Q1 2026 amid IPO preparations
1T–1.25T jumps to 13%7%
OpenAI reported $6 billion in revenue for Q1 2026, demonstrating strong growth ahead of its planned IPO. This financial update supported market confidence in OpenAI's valuation and IPO prospects, although profitability concerns remained.
OpenAI targets September 2026 IPO listing after confidential filing preparations
1.5T+ jumps to 22%9%
Reports confirmed OpenAI's confidential IPO filing preparations with a target to list publicly in September 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a near-term IPO and supporting higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI reports $6 billion revenue in Q1 2026, signaling strong growth
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 11%2%
OpenAI's strong Q1 2026 revenue report underscored rapid growth, supporting investor optimism about the company's valuation and IPO prospects despite ongoing losses.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
1.5T+ surges to 34%21%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI removed a significant legal obstacle, increasing market optimism about the IPO timeline and contributing to a surge in the highest valuation bracket probabilities.
OpenAI targets September IPO with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1.5T+ jumps to 13%7%
The New York Times and other outlets reported OpenAI's plans to file a confidential IPO prospectus within days, aiming for a September 2026 public listing. This news reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO and a valuation near or above $1 trillion.
OpenAI Reportedly Preparing Confidential IPO Filing for September Debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 27%48%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is preparing to file confidential IPO paperwork with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026. This caused the 'No IPO' odds to plunge and boosted high-valuation brackets.
CNBC: OpenAI to file confidential IPO prospectus this week
1.5T+ surges to 47%16%
CNBC reported that OpenAI would file a confidential IPO prospectus within days, citing insiders. The imminent filing spurred a sharp rise in the market‑cap odds, moving the price from the low‑single digits to the mid‑teens.
OpenAI plans confidential IPO filing, signaling public market debut
1.5T+ rises to 3%1%
Reports emerged that OpenAI would confidentially file its IPO prospectus around May 22, 2026, targeting a valuation above $1 trillion and a public listing as early as September 2026. This filing marked a formal step toward going public, increasing market optimism for a high valuation IPO.
Reports of OpenAI confidential IPO filing spark market optimism
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%15%
Reports emerged that OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO prospectus, fueling market speculation about a late 2026 IPO and increasing the probability of an IPO announcement before year-end.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1T–1.25T surges to 21%15%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, targeting a September 2026 debut, increasing market confidence in an IPO occurring within 2026 and influencing valuation expectations.
Reports emerge that OpenAI is preparing to file for IPO soon
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 70%40%
News reports indicated that OpenAI was preparing to file for an IPO imminently, causing a spike in market confidence for a 2026 IPO. This led to a temporary increase in probabilities for near-term IPO outcomes and a rise in the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' price reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
OpenAI to file draft IPO prospectus within days, CNBC reports
1.5T+ jumps to 18%14%
CNBC reported that OpenAI would file a draft prospectus within days, causing a sharp rally in the 1.5 T+ outcome.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing soon
1.5T+ jumps to 13%9%
Multiple reports from The Wall Street Journal and others revealed OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley involved, boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files draft registration statement with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 59%33%
OpenAI officially confirmed it submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the SEC for its IPO. While confirming its path to a public debut, the company noted that timing remains undefined, which solidified late-2026 IPO odds and crushed near-term contracts.
Reports of OpenAI confidential IPO filing plans spark market optimism
1.5T+ surges to 26%18%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO, with expectations for a September 2026 debut. This news increased market confidence in a 2026 IPO and higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI preparing to confidentially file for IPO soon
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 80%17%
OpenAI was reported to be preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, signaling progress toward a public offering and boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
WSJ: OpenAI to file confidential IPO paperwork by end of May
1.5T+ jumps to 30%7%
Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI would likely file a confidential IPO registration by the end of May, spiking the 1.5T+ outcome to 30%.
OpenAI prepares to file confidential IPO prospectus imminently
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 80%30%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, causing a spike in market optimism and increasing prices for IPO-related outcomes, reflecting growing confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI aims to accelerate IPO timeline following legal victory and market conditions
1.5T+ jumps to 26%13%
Following the dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit and favorable market conditions, OpenAI is reported to be accelerating its IPO timeline, aiming for a September 2026 debut. This optimism boosted market odds for a 2026 IPO and higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%44%
OpenAI's engagement with major financial institutions indicated progress toward an IPO, increasing market confidence in a 2026 public offering despite some uncertainty about timing.
OpenAI IPO filing news causes Anthropic IPO odds to collapse in prediction markets
1.5T+ jumps to 13%8%
Following reports of OpenAI's confidential IPO filing preparations, prediction markets saw a sharp increase in OpenAI IPO odds and a collapse in Anthropic's IPO odds, reflecting investor confidence in OpenAI's lead in the AI IPO race.
OpenAI confidentially files draft IPO prospectus with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 45%16%
OpenAI submitted a confidential draft registration statement (Form S-1) to the SEC, signaling serious intent to go public and causing a spike in market optimism about a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing targeting $1 trillion valuation
1.5T+ plunges to 9%41%
OpenAI announced plans to confidentially file its IPO prospectus with the SEC around May 22, 2026, aiming for a public listing in September 2026 with a valuation north of $1 trillion. This filing marked a major step toward going public and significantly influenced market expectations for a high valuation IPO.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1.5T+ surges to 22%18%
Multiple reports on May 20, 2026, confirmed OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus imminently, with major banks advising. This news sharply increased market confidence in a 2026 IPO and boosted prices for higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI and SpaceX IPO filings signal record-breaking 2026 IPO year
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%36%
OpenAI's confidential IPO filing alongside SpaceX's public filing marked 2026 as a banner year for mega IPOs, increasing market attention and speculation on OpenAI's valuation and timing.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Preparing to File Confidentially for IPO
1.5T+ surges to 33%22%
Reports from the Wall Street Journal and CNBC revealed that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to file a draft prospectus for a September IPO.
OpenAI prepares to file confidential IPO
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing to file confidentially for an IPO imminently, increasing market anticipation and impacting prediction market prices.
OpenAI confidentially files for IPO with SEC, targeting $1 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 55%25%
OpenAI filed confidentially with the SEC around May 22, 2026, signaling a transition to public markets with a target valuation above $1 trillion and a potential public listing window between September and November 2026.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
1.5T+ jumps to 11%6%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects. This dismissal was perceived as a positive catalyst, briefly boosting market confidence in a successful IPO and higher valuation outcomes.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Plans to Confidentially File for IPO
1.5T+ jumps to 21%13%
Reports from major outlets revealed that OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file a draft of its IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI CFO confirms annualized revenue surpassing $20 billion by end of 2025
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 55%14%
Confirmation of rapid revenue growth reinforced expectations for a high-valuation IPO, but also highlighted the need for financial stability before going public, influencing market pricing.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing targeting $1 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
OpenAI prepared to file confidential IPO paperwork with the SEC around May 22, 2026, targeting a public listing between September and November 2026 with a valuation north of $1 trillion, marking a major milestone and driving market pricing shifts.
Jury throws out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 65%4%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a legal risk that had been weighing on the IPO narrative. The ruling was reported alongside speculation about an imminent filing, nudging the market upward.
Reports emerge of OpenAI confidentially filing IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 79%10%
News broke that OpenAI was planning to confidentially file for an IPO, sparking market speculation about the timing of a public announcement and increasing the perceived likelihood of an IPO in late 2026. This was supported by insider reports and coincided with the dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, which removed a legal overhang.
OpenAI preparing to file confidential IPO prospectus soon
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 51%21%
Reports indicated OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO in the coming weeks, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026, increasing market optimism for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI Prepares to Confidentially File for IPO in Coming Weeks
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%45%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI preparing to file for IPO soon, targeting Q4 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 70%5%
Reports in May 2026 indicated OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file for an IPO in the coming weeks, aiming for a public debut as early as September 2026. This news increased market expectations for an IPO within 2026 and supported valuation brackets near $1 trillion.
OpenAI prepares to file IPO prospectus amid legal victory
1.5T+ surges to 26%21%
Following the dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, the company accelerated IPO preparations, with reports indicating a confidential filing could occur within days. This legal clearance removed a major obstacle, boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI prepares confidential IPO filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
OpenAI was reported to be preparing a confidential IPO filing with major banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, signaling imminent steps toward a public offering and increasing market anticipation for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files draft S-1 registration statement with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 48%20%
On June 8, 2026, OpenAI confidentially submitted its draft S-1 IPO registration statement to the SEC, signaling formal steps toward going public with a target valuation around $1 trillion. This filing intensified market focus on OpenAI's IPO prospects and valuation.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus, signaling intent to go public
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 30%4%
OpenAI reportedly confidentially filed its IPO prospectus, sparking market optimism about a potential IPO in late 2026. This filing is a key regulatory step that increased traders' confidence in an imminent public offering.
OpenAI annualized revenue surpasses $25 billion
OpenAI's annualized recurring revenue exceeded $25 billion by early 2026, highlighting extraordinary growth but also massive cash burn. This financial performance increased market confidence in the IPO valuation but raised concerns about profitability and timing.
OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing, targeting September 2026 debut
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 14%11%
Multiple reports from credible sources including The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times confirmed OpenAI was preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, aiming for a public listing as early as September 2026. This was a critical catalyst that sharply increased market confidence in the IPO happening in 2026 and influenced valuation expectations.
OpenAI prepares to confidentially file IPO prospectus targeting Q4 2026 debut
OpenAI was reported to be preparing to confidentially file its IPO prospectus with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, targeting a public debut as early as September or Q4 2026, which increased market speculation and influenced trading prices.
Reports Reveal OpenAI is Preparing to Confidentially File for IPO Very Soon
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 27%45%
Media reports emerged that OpenAI is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare a confidential draft prospectus for an IPO, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI Prepares Imminent Confidential IPO Filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
1T–1.25T surges to 21%18%
Reports from major outlets revealed OpenAI is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to file a confidential draft IPO prospectus, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO draft registration statement with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%15%
OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 filing with the SEC, marking the first formal step toward a potential IPO in late 2026. This filing increased market expectations for an IPO within 2026, especially for a September or later listing.
Reports Reveal OpenAI Plans to Confidentially File for IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 25%40%
Reports from major outlets revealed that OpenAI is preparing to file confidential IPO paperwork with the SEC, targeting a public debut as early as September 2026.
Elon Musk's lawsuit dismissal clears legal hurdle for OpenAI IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI removed a major legal risk, allowing OpenAI to accelerate IPO preparations and boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
Jury throws out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
1.5T+ jumps to 27%14%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal cloud. The verdict cleared the path for an IPO filing and boosted confidence that OpenAI could list in the coming months, driving the price toward the 1.5T+ bracket.
OpenAI plans confidential IPO filing, targeting late 2026 listing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 90%40%
Reports emerged that OpenAI would confidentially file its IPO prospectus around May 22, 2026, aiming for a public listing in late 2026 with a valuation above $1 trillion. This filing was seen as a major step toward going public and boosted market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO paperwork with SEC
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 67%7%
OpenAI confidentially filed its draft S-1 IPO prospectus around May 22, 2026, signaling a formal step toward a public listing targeting a valuation above $1 trillion. This filing heightened market anticipation and validated the company's large-scale IPO plans.
California jury dismisses Elon Musk lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 73%4%
On May 18, 2026, a California jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI on statute-of-limitations grounds, removing a significant legal uncertainty and clearing a path for OpenAI's IPO preparations.
Court dismisses Elon Musk lawsuit against OpenAI, clearing IPO legal hurdle
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 75%2%
On May 18, 2026, a jury dismissed all claims in Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI regarding its conversion from nonprofit to for-profit status. This legal victory removed a significant obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans, bolstering market confidence in a forthcoming public offering.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
1.5T+ rises to 6%3%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a major legal hurdle that had cast uncertainty over OpenAI's IPO plans. This dismissal likely accelerated market optimism about the IPO timeline.
CFO Sarah Friar says IPO hygiene needed but no timeline set
750B–1T jumps to 21%8%
Friar warned that a public‑company transition would be “good hygiene,” slightly dampening optimism and pulling the 750B–1T outcome down to 21%.
Federal jury rules in favor of OpenAI in Elon Musk lawsuit
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%10%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle to OpenAI's IPO plans. This legal victory reduced uncertainty and positively impacted market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects.
Elon Musk loses lawsuit against OpenAI, removing IPO obstacle
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 69%7%
On May 18, 2026, a U.S. jury ruled against Elon Musk in his lawsuit against OpenAI, dismissing claims that OpenAI breached its nonprofit mission. The verdict removed a significant legal overhang, boosting confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects and positively impacting market sentiment.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 80%30%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI on statute of limitations grounds, removing a significant legal obstacle for OpenAI's IPO process. This legal resolution improved market sentiment and reduced uncertainty around the IPO timeline and valuation.
Jury Dismisses Elon Musk's Federal Lawsuit Against OpenAI and Sam Altman
A federal jury unanimously dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, removing a major legal hurdle and clearing the path for an accelerated IPO timeline.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO delay to 2027 due to readiness concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 50%18%
Reports emerged that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar expressed reservations about a 2026 IPO timeline, citing the company's need to meet public company reporting standards and manage infrastructure costs. This news led to increased market skepticism about an IPO occurring in 2026, reflected in declining prices for near-term IPO outcomes.
OpenAI files amended S-1, signaling IPO progress but no date
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 64%9%
OpenAI filed an amended S-1 registration statement, showing ongoing preparations for an IPO but without confirming a listing date. This tempered market enthusiasm and contributed to price volatility as investors awaited clearer signals on timing.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals preference to delay IPO to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 42%29%
OpenAI's CFO expressed concerns about readiness for public-company reporting standards, suggesting a possible delay of the IPO from 2026 to 2027. This announcement tempered market enthusiasm and increased skepticism about an IPO occurring within 2026.
OpenAI CFO flags IPO timing concerns amid financial challenges
Reports revealed CFO Sarah Friar privately expressed concerns about readiness for a 2026 IPO due to financial losses and operational challenges, causing market confidence to decline and prices to drop.
OpenAI CFO signals potential IPO delay to 2027 due to readiness concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 56%14%
Reports surfaced that OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar privately suggested delaying the IPO from 2026 to 2027, citing challenges in meeting public company reporting standards. This dampened market enthusiasm for a 2026 IPO and increased the probability of no IPO within that year.
OpenAI CFO advises delaying IPO to 2027 due to growth and financial concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%45%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar privately recommended postponing the IPO to 2027, citing unmet financial reporting standards and growth slowdown. This introduced uncertainty and tempered market enthusiasm for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO flags IPO timing concerns, suggesting delay to 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%33%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar privately expressed concerns about the company's readiness for public reporting standards, indicating a possible IPO delay from 2026 to 2027. This internal signal contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility.
OpenAI CFO signals preference for IPO delay to 2027 to ensure financial readiness
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 54%16%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar reportedly expressed concerns about the company's readiness for public company reporting standards, suggesting a possible IPO delay to 2027. This cautious stance reflected the company's significant spending commitments and the need to stabilize finances before going public.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 75%8%
OpenAI secured a massive funding round valuing the company at $852 billion, reinforcing its financial strength and supporting expectations for a high-value IPO in the near future.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%3%
OpenAI's engagement with major financial institutions indicated progress toward an IPO, bolstering market confidence in a 2026 IPO and supporting the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome price.
OpenAI misses revenue and user growth targets, raising funding concerns
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 28%41%
OpenAI fell short of internal revenue and user growth targets amid intensifying competition, causing concern among company leaders about sustaining data-center spending and impacting IPO market sentiment.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley advising
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 65%15%
Reports indicated OpenAI was actively preparing for a Q4 2026 IPO, engaging major investment banks to advise on the offering. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 public listing and a valuation around $1 trillion.
Microsoft and OpenAI Amend Partnership to Grant Cloud Flexibility
1.5T+ jumps to 11%6%
Microsoft and OpenAI updated their partnership terms, allowing OpenAI to serve products across any cloud provider and simplifying its corporate structure ahead of a potential listing.
Microsoft and OpenAI amend partnership, ending exclusivity and revenue sharing
Microsoft and OpenAI revised their partnership to end Microsoft's exclusive license and revenue share, allowing OpenAI to serve products across any cloud provider, reflecting strategic shifts ahead of IPO.
Microsoft and OpenAI Amend Partnership to Grant Cloud Flexibility
1T–1.25T surges to 51%40%
Microsoft and OpenAI updated their partnership terms, allowing OpenAI to serve its products across any cloud provider and making the IP license non-exclusive, simplifying OpenAI's corporate structure ahead of an IPO.
Microsoft makes OpenAI AI‑license non‑exclusive
1T–1.25T rises to 9%3%
Microsoft announced a non‑exclusive AI licensing deal with OpenAI, removing a structural hurdle for a public listing and slightly boosting confidence in a >$1 trillion market cap.
OpenAI and Microsoft end exclusive partnership and revenue sharing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%2%
In April 2026, OpenAI and Microsoft announced a revamped partnership ending Microsoft's exclusivity and revenue share payments. This allowed OpenAI to partner with other cloud providers, potentially increasing its market reach and impacting IPO valuation considerations.
OpenAI and Microsoft amend partnership, ending exclusivity and revenue sharing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 26%43%
OpenAI and Microsoft restructured their partnership, ending Microsoft's exclusive license and revenue share, allowing OpenAI to partner with other cloud providers. This move aimed to secure more computing power and expand enterprise reach ahead of the IPO.
Microsoft and OpenAI Amend Partnership to Grant More Cloud Flexibility
1.25T–1.5T rises to 8%3%
Microsoft and OpenAI updated their partnership terms, allowing OpenAI to serve its products across any cloud provider and making the corporate structure cleaner ahead of a potential public listing.
OpenAI and Microsoft amend partnership, ending exclusivity and capping revenue share
1.25T–1.5T rises to 12%4%
The revised partnership agreement allowed OpenAI to serve customers across any cloud provider and capped revenue share payments to Microsoft, enabling OpenAI to expand enterprise reach and partnerships, positively impacting market sentiment.
Microsoft and OpenAI announce revised partnership ending exclusivity
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 73%12%
The revised partnership allowed OpenAI to expand cloud partnerships beyond Microsoft, potentially increasing its enterprise reach and supporting IPO readiness.
CFO Sarah Friar suggests OpenAI may push IPO to 2027
500–750B dips to 1%2%
CFO Sarah Friar publicly hinted at delaying the IPO to 2027, tempering market enthusiasm and pulling price back toward the 500–750 B bracket.
Anthropic files confidential S‑1, intensifying race with OpenAI
1T–1.25T jumps to 10%5%
Anthropic filed a confidential S‑1 a week earlier, prompting investors to compare valuations and shifting the market toward the 1T–1.25T bracket.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO discussions
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 60%10%
OpenAI's engagement with major financial institutions indicated progress toward an IPO, signaling financial readiness and increasing market confidence in a potential public offering by the end of 2026.
Amazon commits $38 billion in AI infrastructure deal with OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 66%3%
In early April 2026, Amazon announced a $38 billion compute pact with OpenAI, ending Microsoft's exclusivity and expanding OpenAI's infrastructure capacity. This deal highlighted OpenAI's massive capital needs and influenced market views on its valuation and IPO timing.
OpenAI CFO announces IPO share allocation for retail investors
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 38%6%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering and increasing market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI announces retail allocation for IPO shares
OpenAI announced plans to allocate IPO shares to retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering and increasing market interest in the IPO's potential valuation and timing.
OpenAI CFO announces plans to reserve IPO shares for retail investors
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 69%4%
The CFO announced that OpenAI plans to allocate a portion of IPO shares to individual investors, signaling preparations for a public listing and increasing market awareness of an impending IPO. This announcement positively influenced market expectations but did not confirm timing.
OpenAI announces retail investor allocation for upcoming IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 43%11%
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated the company will reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, signaling preparation for a public offering and increasing market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI experiences leadership changes ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 31%34%
Several key OpenAI executives shifted roles or took leaves of absence, raising concerns about the company's readiness and execution risks ahead of its anticipated IPO.
OpenAI leadership reshuffle amid IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 63%5%
Bloomberg and other media reported significant leadership changes at OpenAI, including COO role shift and key executives taking leave. This raised market concerns about execution risks ahead of the IPO, impacting valuation confidence.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar signals retail investor allocation plans for IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 32%3%
CFO Sarah Friar announced plans to reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors, supporting market optimism about the IPO timing and broadening potential shareholder base.
OpenAI engages Citigroup and JPMorgan for IPO preparations
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 67%2%
OpenAI's engagement with major financial institutions Citigroup and JPMorgan signaled progress toward an IPO, boosting market confidence in a potential public offering by year-end 2026. However, the impact on near-term IPO timing expectations was limited.
OpenAI engages Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for IPO advisory
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%4%
OpenAI engaged major investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to advise on its IPO preparations, signaling serious intent to go public and supporting market confidence in the IPO timeline and valuation.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI announced a massive $122 billion funding round led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, raising its valuation to $852 billion. This funding round underscored investor confidence and set the stage for a potential IPO, fueling market expectations for a high valuation at public listing.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in record funding round
OpenAI completed a historic $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, setting a strong private market benchmark for its upcoming IPO valuation.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
1.25T–1.5T rises to 6%1%
OpenAI's massive funding round raised $122 billion, setting a private valuation of $852 billion and signaling strong investor confidence ahead of the IPO. This bolstered expectations for a high valuation at public listing.
OpenAI closes $122 bn funding round at $852 bn valuation
1.5T+ jumps to 18%11%
A $122 bn funding round pegged OpenAI’s private valuation at $852 bn, raising expectations that the IPO could achieve a $1 tn market cap.
OpenAI crosses $25 billion annualized revenue, prepares IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 74%5%
OpenAI reported crossing $25 billion in annualized revenue by early 2026 and was actively preparing for an IPO in late 2026 with major banks advising. This milestone reinforced the company's growth story and IPO prospects, supporting higher valuation expectations.
OpenAI Raises $122 Billion in Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
<500B drops to 3%9%
OpenAI disclosed a massive committed funding round that valued the private company at $852 billion, establishing a high baseline valuation ahead of its anticipated public debut.
OpenAI raises $122 billion, valuation jumps to $852 billion
1T–1.25T jumps to 12%5%
OpenAI disclosed a $122 billion funding round valuing it at $852 billion. The valuation lift fed expectations of a trillion‑dollar IPO, nudging the market toward the 1T–1.25T bracket.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
1.5T+ plunges to 11%39%
OpenAI secured $122 billion in funding led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, boosting its valuation to $852 billion and fueling expectations for a high-value IPO.
OpenAI raises $122 billion in funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%2%
OpenAI closed a massive funding round raising $122 billion, boosting its valuation to $852 billion. This capital raise reinforced expectations for a large IPO and supported higher market prices for the IPO timing outcome.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 55%25%
OpenAI secured the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history, raising $122 billion and boosting its private valuation to $852 billion. This massive capital injection increased investor confidence in OpenAI's growth prospects and IPO potential.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation with retail investor access
<500B jumps to 8%6%
OpenAI completed a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, including $3 billion allocated to retail investors for the first time. This milestone increased market confidence in OpenAI's valuation and IPO prospects.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
500–750B jumps to 50%7%
OpenAI completed a massive funding round at an $852 billion valuation, reinforcing its private market valuation and providing capital ahead of the IPO. This event supported market expectations for a high valuation IPO but also highlighted the company's reliance on private funding.
OpenAI raises $122 billion at $852 billion post-money valuation
1.5T+ rises to 6%2%
OpenAI's massive funding round at an $852 billion valuation reinforced market expectations for a high IPO valuation, driving up probabilities for the $1 trillion+ market cap bracket.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
The large funding round at a high valuation reinforced market expectations for a significant IPO, setting a valuation benchmark and increasing investor interest in a public offering.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
750B–1T jumps to 13%9%
OpenAI raised $122 billion in committed capital, boosting its valuation to $852 billion and signaling strong investor support ahead of the anticipated IPO.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
750B–1T plunges to 9%41%
In March 2026, OpenAI completed a massive private funding round raising $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation. This round included major investors like SoftBank, Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia, anchoring expectations for a high IPO valuation.
OpenAI closes record-breaking $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%2%
OpenAI announced the close of a $122 billion funding round in March 2026, raising its valuation to $852 billion. This funding round, led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, reinforced expectations for a large IPO and increased market confidence in the company's valuation.
OpenAI Closes Record-Breaking $122 Billion Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
750B–1T rises to 10%1%
OpenAI officially closed its massive funding round with $122 billion in committed capital, establishing a post-money private valuation of $852 billion and anchoring expectations for its public debut.
OpenAI Raises $122 Billion Funding Round at $852 Billion Valuation
750B–1T rises to 14%4%
OpenAI secured a massive committed funding round that valued the private company at $852 billion, significantly lifting expectations for its eventual public market capitalization.
OpenAI closes record-breaking $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI announced closing a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, the largest private funding round in history, which bolstered market confidence in the company's valuation and IPO prospects.
OpenAI raises $122 billion at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 64%14%
OpenAI closed a historic $122 billion funding round in March 2026, valuing the company at $852 billion. This capital raise underscored the company's scale and growth, anchoring market expectations for a near-trillion-dollar IPO valuation.
OpenAI secures additional $10 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 68%3%
The large funding round reinforced OpenAI's high valuation and financial runway, boosting market confidence in the company's ability to sustain growth and prepare for a public offering.
OpenAI raises additional $10 billion in funding round
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%7%
OpenAI secured an additional $10 billion in funding, signaling strong investor support and improving financial runway ahead of its anticipated IPO. This bolstered market confidence in a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI shuts down Sora video app, ending Disney partnership
OpenAI discontinued its AI video generation app Sora due to unsustainable costs and low revenue, leading to the collapse of Disney's $1 billion investment and licensing deal. This marked a strategic pivot by OpenAI to focus on enterprise and coding tools ahead of its IPO, affecting market sentiment on its consumer product viability.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 55%25%
This massive funding round significantly increased market confidence in OpenAI's financial strength and IPO prospects, driving up the market price for the December 31, 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI Closes Historic $122 Billion Funding Round Pegging Valuation at $852 Billion
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 61%4%
OpenAI secured the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history, raising $122 billion and boosting its private valuation to $852 billion. This massive capital injection revived investor confidence in a late-2026 IPO timeline.
OpenAI announces acquisition of developer-tool startup Astral
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 51%7%
OpenAI's acquisition of Astral was viewed as a strategic move to strengthen its Codex coding assistant, boosting market optimism for a 2026 IPO and lifting the price for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
OpenAI hires law firms Cooley and Wachtell for IPO preparations
OpenAI engaged top law firms to begin formal preparations for a public offering as early as 2026, signaling serious intent to pursue an IPO within the year. This step is typically the first formal milestone in the IPO process.
OpenAI tops $25 billion in annualized revenue
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%4%
In early 2026, OpenAI surpassed $25 billion in annualized revenue, demonstrating rapid growth that supported high valuation expectations for the IPO. This milestone reinforced market confidence in the company's financial prospects despite ongoing losses.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI closed a massive funding round in March 2026 at an $852 billion valuation, backed by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, providing runway but highlighting the need for public capital access through an IPO.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 65%15%
OpenAI raised $122 billion in a private funding round, valuing the company at $852 billion, signaling strong investor confidence and setting a valuation anchor for the upcoming IPO.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI completed a massive funding round raising $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation, demonstrating rapid revenue growth and fueling expectations for a high-value IPO. This milestone reinforced the company's financial scale and IPO prospects.
OpenAI closes $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 66%16%
OpenAI raised $122 billion in committed capital, valuing the company at $852 billion, reinforcing expectations for a high IPO valuation and fueling market speculation about its public debut.
OpenAI announces strategic partnership with Amazon and Pentagon deal
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 72%2%
OpenAI's partnership with Amazon and a deal with the Pentagon signaled business expansion and potential revenue growth, positively influencing investor sentiment about the company's prospects ahead of its IPO.
OpenAI raises $110 billion at $852 billion valuation
1T–1.25T surges to 67%17%
OpenAI completed a major funding round in March 2026, lifting its private valuation to $852 billion, which anchored market expectations for a large IPO valuation near or above $1 trillion.
OpenAI raises $110 billion in one of the largest private funding rounds
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 60%12%
OpenAI secured $110 billion in funding at a $730 billion pre-money valuation, signaling strong investor confidence and fueling expectations for a high-valuation IPO.
OpenAI closes record $110 billion funding round at $840 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 69%3%
OpenAI announced a historic $110 billion funding round led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, boosting its valuation to approximately $840 billion. This massive capital infusion underscored investor confidence and the company's growth trajectory ahead of its planned IPO, supporting market optimism.
OpenAI raises $110 billion and announces Pentagon and Amazon partnerships
OpenAI secured $110 billion in funding and announced strategic partnerships with the Pentagon and Amazon, bolstering investor confidence in its growth prospects ahead of the IPO.
OpenAI raises $110 billion at $730 billion valuation in private funding round
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 64%14%
OpenAI secured a massive $110 billion funding round in early 2026, valuing the company at $730 billion pre-money. This large capital raise reduced immediate financial pressure but also highlighted the high valuation expectations ahead of an IPO.
OpenAI announces strategic partnership with Amazon and Pentagon deal
750B–1T rises to 9%3%
OpenAI's partnership with Amazon and a deal with the Pentagon demonstrated strong enterprise adoption and revenue growth potential, supporting higher valuation expectations for the IPO.
OpenAI confirms confidential IPO filing will be submitted within weeks
1.5T+ jumps to 11%8%
OpenAI confirmed a confidential SEC filing is imminent, causing the 1.5T+ probability to jump from 3% to 11% as traders priced in a September debut.
OpenAI strikes deal with Pentagon and announces Amazon partnership
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 39%4%
OpenAI announced strategic partnerships with the Pentagon and Amazon, signaling business growth and strengthening its enterprise position ahead of IPO preparations, positively impacting market sentiment.
OpenAI strikes strategic partnership with Amazon and Pentagon deal
OpenAI announced partnerships with Amazon and the Pentagon, enhancing its enterprise reach and infrastructure capabilities, which supported its growth narrative ahead of the IPO.
OpenAI Secures Strategic Partnerships and Massive Funding Round
750B–1T jumps to 18%8%
OpenAI announced a strategic partnership with Amazon and raised a massive $110 billion funding round, boosting its private valuation and market confidence.
OpenAI raises $110 billion and announces Pentagon and Amazon partnerships
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 81%31%
OpenAI secured a massive $110 billion funding round and announced strategic partnerships with the Pentagon and Amazon, bolstering its financial position and growth prospects ahead of the anticipated IPO, which supported market optimism for a 2026 listing.
OpenAI reports $21.4 billion revenue at end of 2025, fueling IPO speculation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 69%1%
OpenAI announced annualized revenue of $21.4 billion at the end of 2025, signaling strong growth and increasing market expectations for a potential IPO. This financial milestone supported higher valuations and increased market interest in the IPO timing and size.
OpenAI crosses $25 billion in annualized revenue, boosting IPO prospects
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 67%17%
OpenAI reported surpassing $25 billion in annualized revenue by early 2026, driven by ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise adoption. This milestone underscored the company's rapid growth and strengthened market confidence in a high valuation IPO.
Market speculation peaks on OpenAI IPO timing amid rising AI infrastructure spending
500–750B surges to 23%16%
Market speculation about OpenAI's IPO timing peaked in mid-February 2026, coinciding with reports of massive AI infrastructure investments and partnerships with Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon, which supported a high valuation but also raised concerns about capital needs.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead OpenAI IPO deal, targeting late 2026 debut
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
CNBC reported that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were leading the OpenAI IPO deal, with the company targeting a public debut as soon as Q4 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI CFO confirms annualized revenue surpassing $20 billion by end of 2025
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%3%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar publicly confirmed that the company exceeded $20 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2025, highlighting rapid growth but also emphasizing the need to stabilize finances before an IPO. This reinforced market expectations for a 2026 IPO, supporting prices for the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' outcome.
OpenAI CFO reports annualized revenue surpasses $20 billion
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 49%16%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar disclosed that the company's annualized revenue exceeded $20 billion by the end of 2025, confirming rapid growth and fueling speculation about a potential IPO by the end of 2026. This boosted market confidence in a 2026 IPO outcome.
OpenAI prepares for Q4 2026 IPO targeting $1 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%4%
OpenAI began informal discussions with major Wall Street banks and expanded its finance team, targeting a $1 trillion valuation for a Q4 2026 IPO. This news increased market optimism about the IPO prospects.
OpenAI hires public market veterans signaling IPO plans
OpenAI's recruitment of a chief accounting officer and business finance officer indicated preparations for public company reporting and governance, boosting investor confidence in a 2026 IPO timeline.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announces massive infrastructure investment plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 70%5%
In January 2026, CEO Sam Altman framed a trillion-dollar infrastructure thesis, reinforcing investor confidence in OpenAI's long-term growth and IPO potential, contributing to a market price peak.
Wall Street Journal reports OpenAI preparing for Q4 2026 IPO at $1 trillion valuation
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026 targeting a $1 trillion valuation, increasing market confidence in a late 2026 public debut.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO at $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T jumps to 14%8%
The Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI's plans for a fourth quarter 2026 IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation, with major Wall Street banks engaged. This reinforced market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and influenced valuation bracket probabilities.
OpenAI begins informal IPO discussions with major Wall Street banks
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 66%16%
OpenAI started informal talks with investment banks and expanded its finance team to prepare for a potential IPO in late 2026, signaling serious intent to enter public markets.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO at $1 trillion valuation
Reports surfaced that OpenAI is preparing for an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, aiming for a $1 trillion valuation and projecting significant revenue growth, reinforcing market expectations for a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI plans Q4 2026 IPO targeting $1 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 34%5%
OpenAI began informal discussions with major Wall Street banks and expanded its finance team, aiming for a Q4 2026 IPO with a $1 trillion valuation. This announcement increased market anticipation and supported higher probabilities for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI announces plans for Q4 2026 IPO targeting $1 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 64%14%
In January 2026, reports surfaced that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026 with a target valuation around $1 trillion. This announcement set market expectations for a large and timely public offering.
IPO rumors intensify amid competitive AI landscape and finance hiring
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 81%18%
Speculation about OpenAI's IPO timing increased due to hiring in finance and accounting teams, signaling preparation for public listing and fueling market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI plans fourth-quarter IPO
OpenAI publicly announced plans for a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, raising market expectations for a near-term public offering and influencing trading prices in the prediction market.
OpenAI plans fourth-quarter IPO amid competitive pressures
OpenAI publicly indicated plans for a fourth-quarter 2026 IPO, aiming to capitalize on market demand despite financial and competitive challenges, which increased market expectations for a late 2026 listing.
OpenAI lays groundwork for potential Q4 2026 IPO, begins talks with Wall Street banks
500–750B jumps to 15%9%
The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI is preparing for a potential IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026 and has started informal discussions with investment banks, signaling increased seriousness about going public soon.
Reports indicate OpenAI plans Q4 2026 IPO amid AI market race
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 70%20%
Media reports in early 2026 suggested OpenAI was targeting a Q4 2026 IPO, positioning itself in a competitive race with Anthropic and SpaceX. This speculation increased market interest and optimism about a 2026 public offering, reflected in rising contract prices.
OpenAI announces plans for fourth-quarter IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%5%
OpenAI publicly indicated plans for a potential IPO in late 2026, focusing on enterprise growth and positioning ChatGPT as a productivity tool. This announcement increased market optimism for a 2026 IPO, reflected in rising probabilities.
OpenAI Plans Fourth-Quarter 2026 IPO Amid Intense Competition
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 47%23%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was targeting a late 2026 public debut, accelerating its timeline to capture market demand ahead of rivals like Anthropic.
SoftBank announces up to $30B investment in OpenAI
1T–1.25T rises to 7%2%
SoftBank's announcement of a potential $30 billion investment in OpenAI increased confidence in the company's capital raising ability ahead of an IPO, positively impacting market expectations for a successful public offering.
SoftBank commits $30 billion to OpenAI
750B–1T rises to 6%3%
SoftBank announced a $30 billion follow‑on investment in OpenAI, reinforcing its capital base and nudging market expectations toward the 750B–1T range.
OpenAI CFO announces annualized revenue surpassing $20 billion in 2025
1.5T+ rises to 6%2%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar confirmed the company exceeded a $20 billion annualized revenue run rate in 2025, signaling rapid growth and strengthening market expectations for a high-valuation IPO.
OpenAI CFO confirms annualized revenue surpasses $20 billion in 2025
750B–1T plunges to 4%46%
The CFO's confirmation of strong revenue growth reinforced market confidence in OpenAI's financial strength and supported expectations for a high-valuation IPO.
OpenAI CFO reports annualized revenue surpassing $20 billion in 2025
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar confirmed that the company's annualized revenue exceeded $20 billion in 2025, reflecting rapid growth and supporting high valuation expectations ahead of the IPO.
Reports suggest OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T surges to 70%20%
Market reports emerged indicating OpenAI's plan to file for an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026 with a target valuation around $1 trillion. This news increased market optimism about the IPO occurring within the year and boosted valuation bracket probabilities.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T jumps to 20%14%
Reports in early 2026 suggested OpenAI was targeting a fourth quarter 2026 IPO with a market valuation around $1 trillion, raising market optimism about a large IPO.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation amid financial challenges
Reports in early 2026 indicated OpenAI was preparing for a fourth quarter IPO targeting a $1 trillion valuation, despite facing significant losses and high infrastructure spending. This news shaped market expectations for a late 2026 IPO and influenced valuation brackets.
OpenAI revenue tops $20 bn annual run‑rate
1T–1.25T jumps to 11%5%
OpenAI announced annualised revenue had passed $20 billion, reinforcing confidence in a large‑cap IPO and shifting price toward the 1 T–1.25 T bracket.
OpenAI CFO expresses reservations about 2026 IPO readiness
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 46%24%
Reports emerged that OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar had concerns about the company being ready for an IPO in 2026, highlighting internal divisions and financial challenges. This likely contributed to market uncertainty and a decrease in near-term IPO optimism.
OpenAI CFO states IPO 'not on the cards right now'
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 63%5%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar publicly stated that an IPO was not imminent, tempering market expectations and causing a decline in IPO likelihood pricing.
Reports confirm OpenAI and Anthropic taking early steps to go public
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 70%1%
News surfaced that OpenAI and Anthropic had taken early steps toward going public, reinforcing the possibility of a future IPO but with no immediate timeline, which maintained market uncertainty and supported the no IPO outcome's strength.
OpenAI targets Q4 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T jumps to 12%5%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was targeting a fourth quarter 2026 IPO with a potential valuation around $1 trillion, raising market expectations for a large and imminent public offering. This news increased confidence in the IPO occurring within 2026.
OpenAI annualized revenue surpasses $20 billion
OpenAI's revenue milestone demonstrated strong business growth, supporting investor interest in a future IPO. However, internal readiness and profitability concerns persisted, influencing market expectations for the IPO timeline.
OpenAI completes corporate restructuring to prepare for IPO
In late 2025, OpenAI converted from a nonprofit to a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation, removing structural barriers to a traditional IPO and increasing market confidence in a future public listing.
OpenAI closes $122 billion round at $852 billion valuation
1T–1.25T rises to 6%1%
Reports that OpenAI’s $852 billion March 2026 funding round, led by Microsoft and SoftBank, cemented a near‑trillion‑dollar private valuation, reinforcing market belief in a high‑cap IPO and lifting price for the 1T‑1.25T bracket.
OpenAI closes record $122 billion funding round at $852 billion valuation
OpenAI completed a historic $122 billion funding round, significantly boosting its valuation to $852 billion and fueling speculation about a 2026 IPO. This event increased investor confidence in OpenAI's growth prospects, supporting market expectations for a high valuation IPO.
OpenAI identified as a leading tech company preparing for 2026 IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 35%1%
Reports on December 24, 2025, highlighted OpenAI among major private tech firms expected to go public in 2026, fueling market anticipation for a major IPO year and supporting prices around 34-35%.
Market analysts identify OpenAI as a leading 2026 IPO candidate
Reports highlighted OpenAI among major private tech firms expected to go public in 2026, alongside SpaceX and others, increasing market anticipation for OpenAI's IPO by the end of 2026 and supporting prices around 34-35%.
Reports highlight OpenAI among major private tech firms expected to go public in 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 67%17%
Media coverage on December 24, 2025, emphasized OpenAI as a leading tech company preparing for a 2026 IPO, alongside SpaceX and others, increasing market anticipation for a public debut within the year.
OpenAI completes restructuring to for-profit Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI completed its transition from nonprofit to a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation by year-end 2025, a necessary step enabling a traditional IPO and supporting market expectations for a late 2026 public offering.
OpenAI’s IPO critical to funding $100B Project Stargate expansion
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 68%2%
The Economic Times reported that OpenAI’s IPO is essential to finance its massive $100 billion data center expansion, with valuations implied by secondary sales exceeding $800 billion. This underscored the strategic importance of the IPO but also highlighted the challenges ahead.
Sam Altman Expresses Hesitancy Over Leading a Publicly Traded OpenAI
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated he has zero percent excitement about being the CEO of a public company, reinforcing the likelihood that an IPO may be delayed beyond 2026.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation
OpenAI entered talks to raise up to $100 billion in a funding round that could value the company at up to $830 billion, signaling strong investor interest but also highlighting the company's significant capital needs and influencing market expectations for its IPO valuation.
Amazon discusses $10 billion investment in OpenAI amid IPO groundwork
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
Reports emerged that Amazon was in talks to invest about $10 billion in OpenAI, coinciding with the company's preparations for a potential IPO. This indicated strong investor interest and capital inflow, supporting market anticipation for a 2026 IPO.
Amazon in talks to invest $10 billion in OpenAI amid IPO groundwork
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 36%1%
Reports emerged that Amazon was considering a $10 billion investment in OpenAI, signaling strong investor interest and capital inflow ahead of a potential IPO. This news supported market expectations for a large-scale 2026 IPO and contributed to a modest increase in the probability of an IPO by year-end.
Market skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO timing amid lack of official date
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 67%1%
Despite ongoing speculation, OpenAI reiterated that an IPO was not their focus and no official date was set, leading to a decline in confidence for the IPO valuation brackets and a rise in the probability of no IPO by end of 2026.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 66%4%
In December 2025, reports indicated OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, with IPO targets around $1 trillion. This fueled market optimism about a high valuation IPO, reflected in price movements favoring the No IPO and higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI to spend $20 bn on data‑center chips with Microsoft partnership
500–750B drops to 4%8%
OpenAI announced a $20 billion infrastructure spend with Microsoft, raising concerns about cash burn and nudging the market toward the 500–750B bracket.
Disney invests $1 billion in OpenAI and licenses characters for Sora
Disney and OpenAI reached a three-year licensing agreement allowing OpenAI's Sora video platform to use over 200 Disney characters. Disney also made a $1 billion equity investment in OpenAI, marking a significant partnership that boosted OpenAI's profile and potential valuation. However, this deal was later impacted by Sora's shutdown.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion in new funding at $830 billion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 68%3%
By December 2025, reports indicated OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, fueling speculation about a potential IPO valuation near $1 trillion and increasing market interest in the IPO.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley hired to prepare OpenAI IPO filing
1.5T+ jumps to 18%13%
Reports that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were advising OpenAI on an imminent confidential filing lifted optimism, nudging the market toward higher‑valuation brackets.
OpenAI declares 'Code Red' in response to Google's Gemini 3 AI model
In December 2025, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a 'Code Red' to focus resources on improving ChatGPT after Google's Gemini 3 model surpassed OpenAI on key benchmarks. This indicated competitive pressure and urgency to maintain AI leadership, influencing investor sentiment about OpenAI's growth and IPO prospects.
OpenAI seeks $100bn funding at $830bn valuation, IPO speculated near $1tn
Reports emerged that OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, with speculation that the IPO could target $1 trillion or more. This fueled market optimism about a high-value IPO in 2026.
OpenAI seeks $100 billion funding at $830 billion valuation ahead of IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 65%5%
Reports emerged that OpenAI was seeking $100 billion in new funding at an $830 billion valuation, signaling strong private market interest and setting expectations for a high IPO valuation. This news increased market confidence in a future IPO but also highlighted the high valuation risks.
OpenAI CFO signals IPO target for 2027, some advisers suggest late 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 68%5%
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar indicated a 2027 IPO target, but some advisers believed the IPO could happen sooner, in late 2026. This mixed messaging contributed to market uncertainty, causing fluctuations in the probabilities across valuation brackets and the no IPO outcome.
Skepticism grows over OpenAI IPO happening in 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 81%5%
CNN Business published an analysis expressing doubts that OpenAI will go public in 2026, citing the company's need to significantly increase revenue and the IPO not being a current focus. This contributed to a market shift favoring the "No IPO by December 31, 2026" outcome.
OpenAI annualized revenue surpasses $20 billion, fueling IPO valuation hopes
500–750B rises to 4%2%
Reports indicated OpenAI's annualized revenue exceeded $20 billion by late 2025, supporting the company's high valuation and IPO ambitions. This financial milestone reassured investors about growth prospects despite high cash burn.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar Says IPO Is Not on the Cards Right Now
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 70%16%
Speaking at the WSJ Tech Live conference, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that an initial public offering is not in the startup's near-term plans, cooling down immediate IPO expectations.
Jury throws out Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 45%10%
A jury dismissed Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a legal cloud and pushing the "No IPO" probability down sharply (from 55% to 45%).
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 69%6%
A federal jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and boosting market confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects. This led to a spike in market prices for IPO outcomes, reflecting increased trader confidence in an upcoming announcement.
OpenAI eyes massive $1T IPO as early as 2026: Reuters
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 81%4%
CoinDesk and Yahoo Finance reported on OpenAI’s plans for a $1 trillion IPO as early as late 2026, citing insiders. The reports highlighted both the potential scale and the early stage of IPO talks, influencing market expectations.
OpenAI announces plans for $1 trillion IPO as early as second half of 2026
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 64%14%
On October 30, 2025, Reuters and other major outlets reported that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO potentially valuing the company at up to $1 trillion, sparking initial market optimism and lifting the probability of an IPO by the end of 2026.
OpenAI plans IPO as soon as late 2026 amid restructuring
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 81%4%
Following the Reuters report, Forbes highlighted OpenAI's transition to a public benefit corporation and its plans for an IPO in late 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a near-term public offering and a valuation doubling to $1 trillion.
OpenAI completes restructuring to public benefit corporation, enabling IPO path
1.25T–1.5T rises to 2%1%
OpenAI finalized its corporate restructuring into a public benefit corporation, a key step enabling it to pursue an IPO. This move was widely reported and confirmed the company's intent to raise capital publicly, impacting market expectations positively for a large IPO.
OpenAI restructuring completed unlocking $30 billion funding from Softbank
1.25T–1.5T jumps to 8%6%
OpenAI finalized a major restructuring, enabling the nonprofit arm to hold a significant stake and unlocking $30 billion in funding from Softbank. This financial boost supported the company's IPO ambitions and temporarily increased confidence in the 1.25T–1.5T valuation bracket.
Reuters reports OpenAI preparing for IPO with $1 trillion valuation
Reuters published an exclusive revealing OpenAI is laying groundwork for an IPO potentially valuing the company at up to $1 trillion, with a possible filing in the second half of 2026 and listing in 2027, boosting market optimism.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO targeting up to $1 trillion valuation
1T–1.25T plunges to 1%49%
OpenAI began preparing for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, signaling one of the largest IPOs ever. This announcement increased market expectations for a high valuation at listing.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO with potential $1 trillion valuation
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO that could value the company at up to $1 trillion, marking it as one of the largest IPOs ever. CEO Sam Altman indicated that an IPO was the most likely path given capital needs, fueling market speculation and price movements.
OpenAI reportedly planning IPO filing in second half of 2026 with $1 trillion valuation
1.25T–1.5T dips to 1%2%
Reports emerged that OpenAI is considering filing for an IPO as early as late 2026, targeting a valuation up to $1 trillion and aiming to raise at least $60 billion. This news caused a sharp drop in market probabilities as investors digested the timing and scale of the offering.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO targeting up to $1 trillion valuation
OpenAI began preparing for an IPO with plans to file with securities regulators in the second half of 2026, aiming for a valuation up to $1 trillion, signaling the start of its transition to public markets.
OpenAI lays groundwork for up to $1 trillion IPO in late 2026
1T–1.25T plunges to 2%48%
OpenAI was reported to be preparing for an IPO potentially valuing the company up to $1 trillion, considering filing with regulators in the second half of 2026. CFO Sarah Friar indicated a possible 2027 listing, but advisers predicted a late 2026 IPO, raising market expectations for a large debut.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman signals IPO as most likely future but timing uncertain
In a livestream on October 28, 2025, CEO Sam Altman stated that an IPO was the most likely future for OpenAI, though the exact timing remained uncertain. This public statement increased market attention and speculation about the IPO timeline, influencing early market pricing.
OpenAI considers 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation target
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026 with a target valuation of $1 trillion, signaling the start of serious IPO preparations and influencing market expectations.
Reuters reports OpenAI considering IPO filing in second half of 2026 or 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 68%5%
A Reuters report indicated OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026 or in 2027, which influenced market expectations about the timing of the IPO.
OpenAI considers 2026 IPO with $1 trillion valuation target
1T–1.25T plunges to 6%44%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was laying groundwork for a juggernaut IPO with a potential valuation of up to $1 trillion, signaling increased market anticipation for a public offering in 2026. This news likely contributed to early market pricing shifts favoring a high valuation outcome.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman states IPO is likely but timing uncertain
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 62%12%
On October 28, 2025, Sam Altman indicated that an IPO was the most likely future for OpenAI, though no specific timing was set. This statement influenced market expectations about the IPO timing and valuation.
Reports emerge of OpenAI considering IPO in late 2026 or 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 33%17%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026 or in 2027, sparking initial market speculation about the timing and valuation of the IPO.
Reuters reports OpenAI preparing for 2026 IPO targeting $1 trillion valuation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was preparing to file for an IPO as soon as 2026, aiming for a market capitalization of $1 trillion, marking one of the largest IPOs ever. This news increased market anticipation for a high-valuation public debut.
Report suggests OpenAI considering IPO filing in second half of 2026 or 2027
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Reuters reported that OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026 or in 2027, fueling early market speculation about the timing of the public offering and influencing market prices for IPO-related outcomes.
OpenAI eyes second‑half‑2026 IPO filing, WSJ reports
1.5T+ rises to 4%3%
A Reuters report cited The Wall Street Journal saying OpenAI was considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026. The news lifted optimism about a near‑term listing, pushing the market‑cap odds toward the higher valuation brackets.
OpenAI lays groundwork for up to $1 trillion IPO
OpenAI announced plans to prepare for an IPO potentially valuing the company at up to $1 trillion, targeting a filing with regulators in the second half of 2026. This set early market expectations for a large IPO and influenced valuation brackets.
OpenAI reportedly planning 2026-2027 IPO at valuation up to $1T
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 77%18%
SiliconANGLE reported that OpenAI is considering filing for an IPO in the second half of 2026 with a valuation up to $1 trillion, but the company stated IPO is not their focus. This added to market uncertainty about the timing and likelihood of the IPO.
OpenAI lays groundwork for up to $1 trillion IPO
OpenAI began preparing for an IPO potentially valuing the company at up to $1 trillion, with discussions to file as early as the second half of 2026. CFO Sarah Friar indicated a 2027 listing target, though some advisers expected late 2026, setting early market expectations for a large IPO.
OpenAI lays groundwork for IPO with potential $1 trillion valuation
1.25T–1.5T plunges to 9%41%
OpenAI was reported to be preparing for an IPO filing in the second half of 2026, with a potential valuation up to $1 trillion, signaling the start of serious market expectations for a large public offering.
OpenAI lays groundwork for $1 trillion IPO with corporate restructure
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 35%2%
OpenAI completed its transition from a nonprofit to a public benefit corporation in late 2025, removing structural barriers to a traditional IPO and enabling a clearer path to public markets. This corporate restructuring was critical for facilitating the IPO and positively influenced market expectations for a 2026-2027 listing.
OpenAI completes corporate restructure to Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 36%3%
In October 2025, OpenAI converted from a nonprofit to a Public Benefit Corporation, removing structural barriers to a traditional IPO and positively influencing market expectations for a public listing by the end of 2026.
OpenAI converts to Public Benefit Corporation, enabling IPO readiness
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%15%
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI completed a recapitalization converting to a Delaware-based Public Benefit Corporation, addressing prior governance and capital-raising challenges. This structural change was crucial for enabling institutional investment and IPO preparations, positively impacting market expectations for an IPO.
OpenAI Restructures to Public Benefit Corporation Removing Investor Return Caps
1T–1.25T surges to 24%23%
OpenAI transitioned from a capped-profit hybrid to a Public Benefit Corporation, removing the 100x investor return cap and clearing a major structural hurdle for a future public listing.
OpenAI converts to a Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 73%11%
OpenAI officially converted from a nonprofit‑controlled hybrid to a Public Benefit Corporation, removing a structural barrier to a traditional IPO and prompting traders to raise odds of a public listing.
OpenAI transitions to Public Benefit Corporation structure
No IPO by December 31, 2026 drops to 67%10%
OpenAI's shift away from its capped-profit structure to a Public Benefit Corporation cleared legal and financial hurdles, signaling readiness for traditional capital market participation and supporting expectations for a future IPO.
OpenAI restructures into a public benefit corporation, removing IPO barriers
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
OpenAI finalized a major restructuring into a Delaware-based public benefit corporation, allowing the original non-profit foundation to retain equity and removing structural barriers to a traditional IPO. This move increased market confidence in a potential IPO, supporting early optimism for a 2026 listing.
OpenAI transitions to for-profit Public Benefit Corporation enabling IPO plans
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI officially became a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation, a critical structural change that removed previous profit caps and aligned the company with public market expectations, setting the foundation for a future IPO. This move positively influenced market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI completes transition to Public Benefit Corporation
OpenAI converted from a nonprofit to a Public Benefit Corporation, removing structural barriers to a traditional IPO and enabling future public market participation, which positively influenced market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI completes restructuring into a public benefit corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 68%18%
OpenAI completed a restructuring in October 2025 creating OpenAI Group PBC, a public benefit corporation, which gave the company a clearer path to raising capital and preparing for an IPO. This structural change was significant for investor confidence and IPO prospects.
OpenAI completes corporate restructuring to Public Benefit Corporation
OpenAI transitioned from a nonprofit to a Public Benefit Corporation, removing structural barriers to a traditional IPO and aligning incentives for public market participation. This foundational step positively influenced market expectations for a 2026 IPO.
OpenAI completes employee share sale valuing company at $500 billion
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 67%17%
In October 2025, OpenAI completed an employee share sale that valued the company at $500 billion, marking it as the most valuable privately owned company globally. This milestone significantly influenced market expectations for a high valuation at IPO.
Sam Altman states IPO is likely but timing uncertain
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 53%3%
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly acknowledged that an IPO is the most likely future for OpenAI, though the exact timing remained uncertain. This statement increased market awareness and speculation about a potential IPO, influencing early market pricing.
OpenAI Completes Restructuring Into Delaware Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 59%20%
OpenAI finalized its transition from a non-profit to a public benefit corporation, a crucial structural step designed to clear legal hurdles and attract institutional capital for a future IPO.
OpenAI completes restructuring to Public Benefit Corporation (PBC)
OpenAI transitioned to a Public Benefit Corporation structure, enabling it to raise capital more flexibly and prepare for a potential IPO, which set the foundation for its public market ambitions.
OpenAI Finalizes Restructuring Into Delaware Public Benefit Corporation
1T–1.25T jumps to 13%12%
OpenAI completed its transition from a nonprofit to a Delaware-based Public Benefit Corporation, a crucial structural step designed to clear legal hurdles and attract institutional capital for a traditional IPO.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman states IPO is likely but timing uncertain
In a livestream on October 28, 2025, CEO Sam Altman indicated that an IPO was the most likely future for OpenAI, though the exact timing was uncertain. This statement likely influenced market expectations by confirming IPO plans without committing to a date.
OpenAI completes transition to for-profit Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 dips to 32%1%
OpenAI finalized its corporate restructuring in late 2025, becoming a public benefit corporation, a critical step enabling a future IPO. This structural change was necessary but added complexity, contributing to market skepticism about a near-term IPO.
OpenAI completes recapitalization as Public Benefit Corporation to enable IPO
OpenAI restructured into a Public Benefit Corporation in October 2025, a key step to facilitate a traditional IPO by addressing prior governance and capital-raising challenges. This corporate change laid the groundwork for eventual public market entry.
OpenAI completes restructuring into Public Benefit Corporation
OpenAI transitioned from a capped-profit hybrid to a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), a structural change necessary to enable an IPO and attract institutional investors. This move laid the legal groundwork for a future public offering.
OpenAI completes shift away from capped-profit structure
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%28%
OpenAI's transition away from its capped-profit structure removed a major legal and financial hurdle, clearing the way for a traditional IPO and aligning incentives among investors and employees. This structural change increased market confidence in a forthcoming IPO.
OpenAI Finalizes Restructuring into a Public Benefit Corporation
No IPO by December 31, 2026 plunges to 59%26%
OpenAI completed its transition to a Delaware-based Public Benefit Corporation, clearing legal hurdles and establishing a structure to attract large institutional investments for a traditional IPO.
OpenAI completes restructuring into a Delaware-based Public Benefit Corporation
OpenAI finalized a major restructuring into a Public Benefit Corporation, allowing the original non-profit foundation to retain a 26% equity stake and enabling the company to raise capital more effectively. This structural change was a crucial step toward enabling a future IPO and influenced market expectations for OpenAI's public listing.
SoftBank approves $22.5 billion investment conditional on OpenAI's public-benefit corporation shift
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
SoftBank's approval of a substantial investment contingent on OpenAI completing its transition to a public-benefit corporation by year-end signaled progress toward IPO readiness, boosting market confidence in a potential 2026 IPO.
OpenAI completes transition to Public Benefit Corporation enabling IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%28%
OpenAI's shift from a capped-profit structure to a Public Benefit Corporation in late 2025 removed legal and structural barriers to a traditional IPO, signaling readiness for public market participation and aligning incentives for investors and employees. This corporate reset was a key milestone supporting expectations for an IPO in 2026.
OpenAI confidentially files IPO prospectus draft, signaling imminent public offering
1.5T+ rises to 8%4%
Reports emerged that OpenAI planned to file a draft IPO prospectus soon, sparking market optimism about a near-term IPO and driving up the probability of a high valuation IPO. This filing indicated serious progress toward going public, influencing market pricing positively for outcomes above $1 trillion.
OpenAI valued at $500 billion in employee share sale
<500B plunges to 2%41%
In October 2025, OpenAI's employee share sale valued the company at $500 billion, signaling strong private market demand and fueling speculation about a future IPO valuation.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman states IPO is likely but timing uncertain
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
Sam Altman publicly indicated that an IPO is the most likely future for OpenAI, though no specific timing was confirmed. This statement influenced market expectations by confirming IPO intent but maintaining uncertainty about the date, causing moderate price fluctuations.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 78%15%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal overhang for OpenAI, improving market sentiment about the company's IPO prospects and reducing uncertainty around its corporate structure.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
1.5T+ jumps to 11%7%
The dismissal of Elon Musk's lawsuit removed a significant legal hurdle for OpenAI's IPO plans, boosting market confidence in a successful IPO and higher valuation outcomes.
Reports of OpenAI confidential IPO filing spark market optimism
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 81%31%
A CNBC report cited an insider claiming OpenAI would file a draft IPO prospectus imminently, boosting market confidence in a 2026 IPO. This news increased the perceived likelihood of an IPO announcement, reflected in rising market prices for IPO-related outcomes.
Reports emerge of OpenAI confidentially filing IPO plans
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 82%32%
CNBC reported that OpenAI was planning to confidentially file its IPO prospectus, sparking increased market optimism about a 2026 IPO. This news caused a surge in the market's confidence in an imminent IPO announcement.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing confidential IPO filing
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 83%33%
A CNBC report cited an insider claiming OpenAI would file a draft IPO prospectus soon, sparking market optimism about a 2026 IPO and increasing the probability of an IPO announcement within the year.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 rises to 71%2%
Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others was thrown out by a jury due to delay in filing, removing a legal obstacle and boosting market confidence in OpenAI's IPO plans.
Reports emerge of OpenAI preparing for IPO confidential filing
1.5T+ plunges to 4%46%
News surfaced that OpenAI was planning to confidentially file IPO paperwork soon, sparking increased market speculation about a 2026 public offering and boosting confidence in a high valuation outcome.
Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed, clearing IPO path
1.5T+ jumps to 11%7%
A jury dismissed Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, removing a significant legal obstacle and increasing confidence in OpenAI's IPO prospects. This dismissal was perceived as a positive catalyst, briefly boosting market confidence in a successful IPO and higher valuation outcomes.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 74%6%
Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others was dismissed by a jury, removing a legal obstacle and boosting market confidence in OpenAI's IPO plans, which likely contributed to increased odds for the IPO announcement and higher market cap outcomes.
OpenAI transitions to Public Benefit Corporation structure
No IPO by December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%13%
On October 28, 2025, OpenAI transitioned to a Public Benefit Corporation, a key structural change that set the stage for future public offerings. This milestone was seen as a foundational step towards an IPO, influencing market expectations positively.
OpenAI confidentially files S-1 registration statement for potential IPO
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
OpenAI announced it had confidentially filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC, formally beginning the IPO process but without committing to a timing, signaling the company's readiness to go public but maintaining flexibility. This filing increased market anticipation for an eventual IPO but left timing uncertain.
Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI dismissed by jury
No IPO by December 31, 2026 surges to 76%26%
Elon Musk's federal lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others was dismissed by a jury, removing a significant legal obstacle for OpenAI and potentially increasing confidence in its IPO plans. This legal resolution likely contributed to early bullish sentiment on OpenAI's IPO prospects.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman tours AI data center amid IPO speculation
Sam Altman, OpenAI's CEO, was publicly seen touring the Stargate AI data center, signaling ongoing operational progress and fueling early market speculation about OpenAI's IPO prospects.
OpenAI data center construction signals infrastructure buildup ahead of IPO
OpenAI showcased its data center under construction in Abilene, Texas, indicating significant infrastructure investments that underpin its plans for a large-scale IPO. This development raised market expectations for a high valuation IPO, initially boosting confidence in the 1T+ valuation brackets.
OpenAI data center construction tour highlights massive infrastructure buildout
1.25T–1.5T plunges to 3%47%
A tour of OpenAI's data center in Abilene, Texas, showcased the company's extensive infrastructure investments, signaling readiness for scaling operations and supporting a future IPO. This reinforced market expectations of a large valuation but also highlighted the high capital expenditure needs.
OpenAI remains private with no IPO date announced
As of late 2025, OpenAI had not announced any official IPO date, maintaining its private status and focusing on strategic investors like Microsoft. This lack of IPO news kept market probabilities for an IPO low and the 'No IPO by December 31, 2026' option at moderate levels.
OpenAI completes shift away from capped-profit structure, clearing IPO path
OpenAI's transition from a capped-profit to a more traditional corporate structure removed significant legal and financial obstacles, signaling readiness for public market participation and boosting IPO expectations.
OpenAI plans IPO targeting $1 trillion valuation in late 2026
Reports emerged that OpenAI was preparing for an IPO with a target valuation of up to $1 trillion, aiming for a public listing as early as September 2026. This announcement increased market expectations for a large-scale IPO and set the initial baseline for valuation brackets.
OpenAI completes shift from capped-profit to traditional corporate structure
OpenAI's transition away from its capped-profit model removed a major legal and financial hurdle, signaling readiness for traditional capital markets and IPO preparations. This structural change increased market confidence in a future IPO, reflected in rising probabilities for the event.
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