**Trader consensus favoring one or zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of confirmed events meeting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program criteria—typically requiring at least 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta or plume heights of 10–25 km—through mid-September.** Global monitoring by agencies like USGS and PVMBG shows mostly lower-intensity activity, including ongoing effusive eruptions at Kīlauea and modest ash emissions from Indonesian volcanoes such as Semeru and Anak Krakatau, none yet verified at VEI 4 scale. Historical baselines indicate roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions annually on average, but the current quiet period without major stratospheric sulfur injections or caldera unrest sustains the market-implied odds near 54.5% for one event and 37.5% for zero. Upcoming GVP updates and any intensification in monitoring data through year-end remain the key variables that could shift probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько крупных извержений вулканов (VEI ≥4) в 2026 году?
Сколько крупных извержений вулканов (VEI ≥4) в 2026 году?
1 56%
0 43%
3 11.6%
2 6.8%
$1,164,333 Объем
$1,164,333 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0
38%
1
55%
2
7%
3
12%
4
1%
5+
1%
1 56%
0 43%
3 11.6%
2 6.8%
$1,164,333 Объем
$1,164,333 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0
$499,859 Объем
38%
1
$274,845 Объем
55%
2
$46,002 Объем
7%
3
$32,113 Объем
12%
4
$35,623 Объем
1%
5+
$275,891 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus favoring one or zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of confirmed events meeting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program criteria—typically requiring at least 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta or plume heights of 10–25 km—through mid-September.**
Global monitoring by agencies like USGS and PVMBG shows mostly lower-intensity activity, including ongoing effusive eruptions at Kīlauea and modest ash emissions from Indonesian volcanoes such as Semeru and Anak Krakatau, none yet verified at VEI 4 scale. Historical baselines indicate roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions annually on average, but the current quiet period without major stratospheric sulfur injections or caldera unrest sustains the market-implied odds near 54.5% for one event and 37.5% for zero. Upcoming GVP updates and any intensification in monitoring data through year-end remain the key variables that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Объем
$1,164,333Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus favoring one or zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of confirmed events meeting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program criteria—typically requiring at least 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta or plume heights of 10–25 km—through mid-September.**
Global monitoring by agencies like USGS and PVMBG shows mostly lower-intensity activity, including ongoing effusive eruptions at Kīlauea and modest ash emissions from Indonesian volcanoes such as Semeru and Anak Krakatau, none yet verified at VEI 4 scale. Historical baselines indicate roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions annually on average, but the current quiet period without major stratospheric sulfur injections or caldera unrest sustains the market-implied odds near 54.5% for one event and 37.5% for zero. Upcoming GVP updates and any intensification in monitoring data through year-end remain the key variables that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Объем
$1,164,333Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus favoring one or zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of confirmed events meeting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program criteria—typically requiring at least 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent ejecta or plume heights of 10–25 km—through mid-September.** Global monitoring by agencies like USGS and PVMBG shows mostly lower-intensity activity, including ongoing effusive eruptions at Kīlauea and modest ash emissions from Indonesian volcanoes such as Semeru and Anak Krakatau, none yet verified at VEI 4 scale. Historical baselines indicate roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions annually on average, but the current quiet period without major stratospheric sulfur injections or caldera unrest sustains the market-implied odds near 54.5% for one event and 37.5% for zero. Upcoming GVP updates and any intensification in monitoring data through year-end remain the key variables that could shift probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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