Traders assign a 64% probability against a Democratic tsunami in the 2026 midterms because structural barriers limit the scale of opposition gains. The Senate map requires Democrats to flip multiple states President Trump carried by double digits in 2024, a threshold rarely cleared in recent cycles. Generic ballot polling shows a modest Democratic edge consistent with historical midterm patterns, yet negative partisanship and low crossover voting have produced more contained shifts than past waves. Redistricting outcomes and primary dynamics further narrow the path to the outsized seat totals needed for a tsunami-level result.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$29,500 Объем
$29,500 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
$29,500 Объем
$29,500 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfTraders assign a 64% probability against a Democratic tsunami in the 2026 midterms because structural barriers limit the scale of opposition gains. The Senate map requires Democrats to flip multiple states President Trump carried by double digits in 2024, a threshold rarely cleared in recent cycles. Generic ballot polling shows a modest Democratic edge consistent with historical midterm patterns, yet negative partisanship and low crossover voting have produced more contained shifts than past waves. Redistricting outcomes and primary dynamics further narrow the path to the outsized seat totals needed for a tsunami-level result.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Объем
$29,500Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfTraders assign a 64% probability against a Democratic tsunami in the 2026 midterms because structural barriers limit the scale of opposition gains. The Senate map requires Democrats to flip multiple states President Trump carried by double digits in 2024, a threshold rarely cleared in recent cycles. Generic ballot polling shows a modest Democratic edge consistent with historical midterm patterns, yet negative partisanship and low crossover voting have produced more contained shifts than past waves. Redistricting outcomes and primary dynamics further narrow the path to the outsized seat totals needed for a tsunami-level result.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Объем
$29,500Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 64% probability against a Democratic tsunami in the 2026 midterms because structural barriers limit the scale of opposition gains. The Senate map requires Democrats to flip multiple states President Trump carried by double digits in 2024, a threshold rarely cleared in recent cycles. Generic ballot polling shows a modest Democratic edge consistent with historical midterm patterns, yet negative partisanship and low crossover voting have produced more contained shifts than past waves. Redistricting outcomes and primary dynamics further narrow the path to the outsized seat totals needed for a tsunami-level result.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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