Traders assign a 64% probability against a Democratic tsunami in the 2026 midterms because Republicans retain unified control of the White House and narrow congressional majorities entering the cycle, with the Senate map presenting structural headwinds for large Democratic gains. Recent special elections show Democrats overperforming their 2024 baseline by double digits, and President Trump’s approval ratings have softened amid foreign policy developments and economic pressures, boosting House takeover odds above 75% in related markets. However, flipping the Senate requires Democrats to win multiple states carried decisively by Republicans in 2024, a threshold most forecasts view as improbable without an unprecedented national swing. Mid-decade redistricting has produced mixed results, while negative partisanship and historical midterm patterns limit expectations for a blowout outcome across both chambers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$29,500 Объем
$29,500 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
$29,500 Объем
$29,500 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfTraders assign a 64% probability against a Democratic tsunami in the 2026 midterms because Republicans retain unified control of the White House and narrow congressional majorities entering the cycle, with the Senate map presenting structural headwinds for large Democratic gains. Recent special elections show Democrats overperforming their 2024 baseline by double digits, and President Trump’s approval ratings have softened amid foreign policy developments and economic pressures, boosting House takeover odds above 75% in related markets. However, flipping the Senate requires Democrats to win multiple states carried decisively by Republicans in 2024, a threshold most forecasts view as improbable without an unprecedented national swing. Mid-decade redistricting has produced mixed results, while negative partisanship and historical midterm patterns limit expectations for a blowout outcome across both chambers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Объем
$29,500Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfTraders assign a 64% probability against a Democratic tsunami in the 2026 midterms because Republicans retain unified control of the White House and narrow congressional majorities entering the cycle, with the Senate map presenting structural headwinds for large Democratic gains. Recent special elections show Democrats overperforming their 2024 baseline by double digits, and President Trump’s approval ratings have softened amid foreign policy developments and economic pressures, boosting House takeover odds above 75% in related markets. However, flipping the Senate requires Democrats to win multiple states carried decisively by Republicans in 2024, a threshold most forecasts view as improbable without an unprecedented national swing. Mid-decade redistricting has produced mixed results, while negative partisanship and historical midterm patterns limit expectations for a blowout outcome across both chambers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Объем
$29,500Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 64% probability against a Democratic tsunami in the 2026 midterms because Republicans retain unified control of the White House and narrow congressional majorities entering the cycle, with the Senate map presenting structural headwinds for large Democratic gains. Recent special elections show Democrats overperforming their 2024 baseline by double digits, and President Trump’s approval ratings have softened amid foreign policy developments and economic pressures, boosting House takeover odds above 75% in related markets. However, flipping the Senate requires Democrats to win multiple states carried decisively by Republicans in 2024, a threshold most forecasts view as improbable without an unprecedented national swing. Mid-decade redistricting has produced mixed results, while negative partisanship and historical midterm patterns limit expectations for a blowout outcome across both chambers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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