With over 91% of ballots counted by Peru's National Electoral Processes Office (ONPE) as of April 15, Keiko Fujimori leads the first-round presidential vote at 17.0%, ahead of Roberto Sánchez Palomino's 12.1% in a fragmented field of 36 candidates, implying a near-5% margin that traders price above 5% at 79% probability based on her consistent pre-election polling edge and strength in Lima and northern regions. Early counts showed a tighter race against Rafael López Aliaga, but Fujimori's lead widened amid slow tabulation from April 12-13 voting extended by logistical delays and irregularities, prompting fraud claims from rivals. A June 7 runoff looms between the top two, pending final certification.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПервый тур президентских выборов в Перу: предел победы
Первый тур президентских выборов в Перу: предел победы
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 77.1%
Keiko Fujimori <5% 11.8%
Other 3.2%
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%
$286,198 Объем
$286,198 Объем
12 апр. 2026 г.
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
77%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
14%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Other
3%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 77.1%
Keiko Fujimori <5% 11.8%
Other 3.2%
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%
$286,198 Объем
$286,198 Объем
12 апр. 2026 г.
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
$8,336 Объем
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
$10,022 Объем
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
$6,707 Объем
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
$11,227 Объем
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
$6,911 Объем
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
$6,047 Объем
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
$78,864 Объем
77%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
$105,461 Объем
14%
Jorge Nieto
$6,335 Объем
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
$10,618 Объем
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
$4,420 Объем
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
$5,810 Объем
<1%
Other
$25,443 Объем
3%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 91% of ballots counted by Peru's National Electoral Processes Office (ONPE) as of April 15, Keiko Fujimori leads the first-round presidential vote at 17.0%, ahead of Roberto Sánchez Palomino's 12.1% in a fragmented field of 36 candidates, implying a near-5% margin that traders price above 5% at 79% probability based on her consistent pre-election polling edge and strength in Lima and northern regions. Early counts showed a tighter race against Rafael López Aliaga, but Fujimori's lead widened amid slow tabulation from April 12-13 voting extended by logistical delays and irregularities, prompting fraud claims from rivals. A June 7 runoff looms between the top two, pending final certification.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Объем
$286,198Дата окончания
12 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 91% of ballots counted by Peru's National Electoral Processes Office (ONPE) as of April 15, Keiko Fujimori leads the first-round presidential vote at 17.0%, ahead of Roberto Sánchez Palomino's 12.1% in a fragmented field of 36 candidates, implying a near-5% margin that traders price above 5% at 79% probability based on her consistent pre-election polling edge and strength in Lima and northern regions. Early counts showed a tighter race against Rafael López Aliaga, but Fujimori's lead widened amid slow tabulation from April 12-13 voting extended by logistical delays and irregularities, prompting fraud claims from rivals. A June 7 runoff looms between the top two, pending final certification.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$286,198Дата окончания
12 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 91% of ballots counted by Peru's National Electoral Processes Office (ONPE) as of April 15, Keiko Fujimori leads the first-round presidential vote at 17.0%, ahead of Roberto Sánchez Palomino's 12.1% in a fragmented field of 36 candidates, implying a near-5% margin that traders price above 5% at 79% probability based on her consistent pre-election polling edge and strength in Lima and northern regions. Early counts showed a tighter race against Rafael López Aliaga, but Fujimori's lead widened amid slow tabulation from April 12-13 voting extended by logistical delays and irregularities, prompting fraud claims from rivals. A June 7 runoff looms between the top two, pending final certification.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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