The US maintains an all-volunteer force with no active conscription authority since 1973, and recent legislation in the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act only automates Selective Service registration starting December 2026 without granting induction powers. Congress would still need separate legislation, signed by the president, to authorize a draft during a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. No such measures or emergency conditions have emerged amid current defense policy priorities. Trader consensus at 95 percent reflects these structural barriers and the absence of legislative momentum or major escalations that historically trigger conscription debates. Late developments such as a direct US military commitment in a large-scale conflict could still prompt reconsideration within the 2026 window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
5% вероятность
$521,257 Объем
$521,257 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$521,257 Объем
$521,257 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US maintains an all-volunteer force with no active conscription authority since 1973, and recent legislation in the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act only automates Selective Service registration starting December 2026 without granting induction powers. Congress would still need separate legislation, signed by the president, to authorize a draft during a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. No such measures or emergency conditions have emerged amid current defense policy priorities. Trader consensus at 95 percent reflects these structural barriers and the absence of legislative momentum or major escalations that historically trigger conscription debates. Late developments such as a direct US military commitment in a large-scale conflict could still prompt reconsideration within the 2026 window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Объем
$521,257Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US maintains an all-volunteer force with no active conscription authority since 1973, and recent legislation in the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act only automates Selective Service registration starting December 2026 without granting induction powers. Congress would still need separate legislation, signed by the president, to authorize a draft during a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. No such measures or emergency conditions have emerged amid current defense policy priorities. Trader consensus at 95 percent reflects these structural barriers and the absence of legislative momentum or major escalations that historically trigger conscription debates. Late developments such as a direct US military commitment in a large-scale conflict could still prompt reconsideration within the 2026 window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$521,257Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US maintains an all-volunteer force with no active conscription authority since 1973, and recent legislation in the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act only automates Selective Service registration starting December 2026 without granting induction powers. Congress would still need separate legislation, signed by the president, to authorize a draft during a national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. No such measures or emergency conditions have emerged amid current defense policy priorities. Trader consensus at 95 percent reflects these structural barriers and the absence of legislative momentum or major escalations that historically trigger conscription debates. Late developments such as a direct US military commitment in a large-scale conflict could still prompt reconsideration within the 2026 window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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