Ben McAdams, the former U.S. representative who won the Democratic primary decisively in June, faces Republican nominee Riley Owen in Utah’s newly redrawn 1st Congressional District, which encompasses much of Salt Lake County and leans Democratic based on recent presidential results. Redistricting shifted the seat from Republican control, prompting the prior incumbent to run elsewhere and leaving an open contest rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Trader consensus on Person A and Person B at even odds alongside clustered Democrat margin buckets around 20-25% reflects the district’s structural tilt tempered by limited recent polling and the absence of major late-summer developments that could sharpen expectations. Factors sustaining the tight spread include uncertain general-election turnout among key voting blocs, the impact of any national political environment shifts before November 3, and the typical margin variability in a first-time contest under new lines. Releases of district-specific surveys, candidate endorsements, or campaign events in the coming weeks could separate the leading margin outcomes by clarifying voter intensity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоUT-01 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
UT-01 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Демократ 20-25% 37%
Демократ 35-40% 32%
Демократ 0-10% 32%
Демократ 15-20% 31%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ 40%+
29%
Демократ 35-40%
32%
Демократ 30-35%
28%
Демократ 25-30%
38%
Демократ 20-25%
37%
Демократ 15-20%
31%
Демократ 10-15%
28%
Демократ 0-10%
32%
Победа республиканца
6%
Демократ 20-25% 37%
Демократ 35-40% 32%
Демократ 0-10% 32%
Демократ 15-20% 31%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократ 40%+
$20 Объем
29%
Демократ 35-40%
$20 Объем
32%
Демократ 30-35%
$20 Объем
28%
Демократ 25-30%
$20 Объем
38%
Демократ 20-25%
$20 Объем
37%
Демократ 15-20%
$20 Объем
31%
Демократ 10-15%
$20 Объем
28%
Демократ 0-10%
$20 Объем
32%
Победа республиканца
$270 Объем
6%
The 2026 UT-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ben McAdams, the former U.S. representative who won the Democratic primary decisively in June, faces Republican nominee Riley Owen in Utah’s newly redrawn 1st Congressional District, which encompasses much of Salt Lake County and leans Democratic based on recent presidential results. Redistricting shifted the seat from Republican control, prompting the prior incumbent to run elsewhere and leaving an open contest rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Trader consensus on Person A and Person B at even odds alongside clustered Democrat margin buckets around 20-25% reflects the district’s structural tilt tempered by limited recent polling and the absence of major late-summer developments that could sharpen expectations. Factors sustaining the tight spread include uncertain general-election turnout among key voting blocs, the impact of any national political environment shifts before November 3, and the typical margin variability in a first-time contest under new lines. Releases of district-specific surveys, candidate endorsements, or campaign events in the coming weeks could separate the leading margin outcomes by clarifying voter intensity.
The 2026 UT-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Объем
$431Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 3:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 UT-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ben McAdams, the former U.S. representative who won the Democratic primary decisively in June, faces Republican nominee Riley Owen in Utah’s newly redrawn 1st Congressional District, which encompasses much of Salt Lake County and leans Democratic based on recent presidential results. Redistricting shifted the seat from Republican control, prompting the prior incumbent to run elsewhere and leaving an open contest rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Trader consensus on Person A and Person B at even odds alongside clustered Democrat margin buckets around 20-25% reflects the district’s structural tilt tempered by limited recent polling and the absence of major late-summer developments that could sharpen expectations. Factors sustaining the tight spread include uncertain general-election turnout among key voting blocs, the impact of any national political environment shifts before November 3, and the typical margin variability in a first-time contest under new lines. Releases of district-specific surveys, candidate endorsements, or campaign events in the coming weeks could separate the leading margin outcomes by clarifying voter intensity.
The 2026 UT-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 UT-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$431Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 3:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Ben McAdams, the former U.S. representative who won the Democratic primary decisively in June, faces Republican nominee Riley Owen in Utah’s newly redrawn 1st Congressional District, which encompasses much of Salt Lake County and leans Democratic based on recent presidential results. Redistricting shifted the seat from Republican control, prompting the prior incumbent to run elsewhere and leaving an open contest rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters. Trader consensus on Person A and Person B at even odds alongside clustered Democrat margin buckets around 20-25% reflects the district’s structural tilt tempered by limited recent polling and the absence of major late-summer developments that could sharpen expectations. Factors sustaining the tight spread include uncertain general-election turnout among key voting blocs, the impact of any national political environment shifts before November 3, and the typical margin variability in a first-time contest under new lines. Releases of district-specific surveys, candidate endorsements, or campaign events in the coming weeks could separate the leading margin outcomes by clarifying voter intensity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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