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Геополитика·Израиль X Иран

Какие страны проведут военные действия против Ирана к 30 апреля?

Market icon
Геополитика·Израиль X Иран

Какие страны проведут военные действия против Ирана к 30 апреля?

апр. 30

апр. 30

$2,738,484 Объем

30 апр. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$2,738,484 Объем

Polymarket

ОАЭ

$1,326,923 Объем

8%

Саудовская Аравия

$508,920 Объем

6%

Кувейт

$115,149 Объем

3%

Катар

$27,577 Объем

2%

Турция

$68,982 Объем

2%

Бахрейн

$45,032 Объем

2%

Великобритания

$217,279 Объем

2%

Любая страна ЕС

$44,620 Объем

2%

Иордания

$19,673 Объем

1%

Оман

$30,114 Объем

1%

Германия

$120,101 Объем

1%

Канада

$39,475 Объем

<1%

Франция

$174,968 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran took effect on April 8, 2026, halting major airstrikes after six weeks of US-Israeli operations targeting Iranian military sites, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure since February 28. However, the US launched a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13, entering its third day without reported confrontations, while Israel pursues separate talks with Lebanon amid ongoing Hezbollah clashes. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait have intercepted Iranian drone and missile attacks defensively and provided logistical support for US strikes but conducted no offensive military actions against Iran. With the ceasefire expiring around April 22, traders weigh de-escalation signals against blockade pressures and potential escalations before April 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,738,484
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran took effect on April 8, 2026, halting major airstrikes after six weeks of US-Israeli operations targeting Iranian military sites, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure since February 28. However, the US launched a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz on April 13, entering its third day without reported confrontations, while Israel pursues separate talks with Lebanon amid ongoing Hezbollah clashes. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait have intercepted Iranian drone and missile attacks defensively and provided logistical support for US strikes but conducted no offensive military actions against Iran. With the ceasefire expiring around April 22, traders weigh de-escalation signals against blockade pressures and potential escalations before April 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,738,484
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Какие страны проведут военные действия против Ирана к 30 апреля?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 13 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «ОАЭ» с 8%, за ним следует «Саудовская Аравия» с 6%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 8¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 8%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Какие страны проведут военные действия против Ирана к 30 апреля?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $2.7 million с момента запуска рынка Mar 23, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Какие страны проведут военные действия против Ирана к 30 апреля?», просмотри 13 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Это очень открытый рынок. Текущий лидер для «Какие страны проведут военные действия против Ирана к 30 апреля?» — «ОАЭ» всего с 8%, а «Саудовская Аравия» близко позади с 6%. Поскольку ни один исход не доминирует, трейдеры видят это как крайне неопределённую ситуацию, что может создавать уникальные торговые возможности. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени, так что добавь эту страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Какие страны проведут военные действия против Ирана к 30 апреля?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.