**Recent regional dynamics and stalled normalization talks explain the 68% implied probability that no additional country will join the Abraham Accords before the end of 2026.** Kazakhstan’s accession in November 2025 marked the first expansion since the original 2020 signatories, yet subsequent diplomatic efforts have produced limited progress. U.S. President Trump’s May 2026 public calls for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Muslim-majority states to normalize ties—framed around ending the Iran conflict—received muted or dismissive responses from officials, with analysts noting persistent linkage to Palestinian issues and broader Arab public sentiment. Ongoing sensitivities after the 2025 Gaza ceasefire and active diplomatic frictions have raised the political cost for potential new participants, particularly Gulf states. While Trump administration officials continue to signal interest in further signatories, credible reporting shows no active negotiations or timelines pointing to a 2026 breakthrough. Traders therefore price a second expansion before 2027 as the less likely outcome, reflecting the gap between stated U.S. goals and verifiable movement on the ground.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПрисоединится ли новая страна к Соглашениям Авраама до 2027 года?
Присоединится ли новая страна к Соглашениям Авраама до 2027 года?
Да
$260,689 Объем
$260,689 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$260,689 Объем
$260,689 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Recent regional dynamics and stalled normalization talks explain the 68% implied probability that no additional country will join the Abraham Accords before the end of 2026.** Kazakhstan’s accession in November 2025 marked the first expansion since the original 2020 signatories, yet subsequent diplomatic efforts have produced limited progress. U.S. President Trump’s May 2026 public calls for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Muslim-majority states to normalize ties—framed around ending the Iran conflict—received muted or dismissive responses from officials, with analysts noting persistent linkage to Palestinian issues and broader Arab public sentiment.
Ongoing sensitivities after the 2025 Gaza ceasefire and active diplomatic frictions have raised the political cost for potential new participants, particularly Gulf states. While Trump administration officials continue to signal interest in further signatories, credible reporting shows no active negotiations or timelines pointing to a 2026 breakthrough. Traders therefore price a second expansion before 2027 as the less likely outcome, reflecting the gap between stated U.S. goals and verifiable movement on the ground.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
Объем
$260,689Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Recent regional dynamics and stalled normalization talks explain the 68% implied probability that no additional country will join the Abraham Accords before the end of 2026.** Kazakhstan’s accession in November 2025 marked the first expansion since the original 2020 signatories, yet subsequent diplomatic efforts have produced limited progress. U.S. President Trump’s May 2026 public calls for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Muslim-majority states to normalize ties—framed around ending the Iran conflict—received muted or dismissive responses from officials, with analysts noting persistent linkage to Palestinian issues and broader Arab public sentiment.
Ongoing sensitivities after the 2025 Gaza ceasefire and active diplomatic frictions have raised the political cost for potential new participants, particularly Gulf states. While Trump administration officials continue to signal interest in further signatories, credible reporting shows no active negotiations or timelines pointing to a 2026 breakthrough. Traders therefore price a second expansion before 2027 as the less likely outcome, reflecting the gap between stated U.S. goals and verifiable movement on the ground.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$260,689Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent regional dynamics and stalled normalization talks explain the 68% implied probability that no additional country will join the Abraham Accords before the end of 2026.** Kazakhstan’s accession in November 2025 marked the first expansion since the original 2020 signatories, yet subsequent diplomatic efforts have produced limited progress. U.S. President Trump’s May 2026 public calls for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Muslim-majority states to normalize ties—framed around ending the Iran conflict—received muted or dismissive responses from officials, with analysts noting persistent linkage to Palestinian issues and broader Arab public sentiment. Ongoing sensitivities after the 2025 Gaza ceasefire and active diplomatic frictions have raised the political cost for potential new participants, particularly Gulf states. While Trump administration officials continue to signal interest in further signatories, credible reporting shows no active negotiations or timelines pointing to a 2026 breakthrough. Traders therefore price a second expansion before 2027 as the less likely outcome, reflecting the gap between stated U.S. goals and verifiable movement on the ground.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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