**The 73.4% market-implied probability that Paramount Skydance will not close its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition by December 31, 2026, reflects the binding legal pause on the $110–111 billion deal and the extended antitrust litigation timeline.** In July 2026, following a lawsuit by 12 state attorneys general alleging reduced competition in theatrical distribution, cable, and streaming, the parties stipulated in federal court that the transaction cannot close before June 1, 2027, or five days after a merits ruling, whichever comes first. A judge had already issued and extended a temporary restraining order. Trial scheduling points to early-to-mid 2027 (with settlement talks set for October 2026), well after year-end. While Paramount secured DOJ antitrust clearance in June 2026 plus approvals in roughly 70 jurisdictions, the state-level challenge and resulting stipulation override those clearances for closing purposes. Paramount executives have publicly stated confidence in eventual completion and have extended tender offers amid the delay, but the court-ordered timeline creates a high barrier to a 2026 close. Traders are pricing in the low odds of an expedited resolution or surprise settlement that would override the June 2027 backstop before the calendar turns.