Recent diplomatic efforts, including ongoing U.S.-Iran talks on the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief as of early August 2026, have reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. Following February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and a June memorandum of understanding, the Trump administration has prioritized naval blockades, targeted strikes on Iranian assets, and economic pressure over large-scale troop deployments or territorial control operations. High logistical costs, risks of prolonged conflict, and preference for de-escalation through negotiations have kept implied probabilities for invasion low at around 16.5%. Any shift would require major escalation beyond current patterns of air and maritime actions.