Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum ending major hostilities and fresh talks scheduled for August 4 on the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear constraints, has reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. The 2026 conflict featured joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and missile operations targeting Iranian military and leadership sites rather than troop deployments for territorial control, consistent with historical U.S. preferences for air and naval power in the region. Ongoing mediated negotiations, sanctions pathways, and the absence of announced ground force mobilizations or occupation objectives reduce near-term escalation risks, though renewed tensions or diplomatic breakdowns could still alter probabilities within the resolution window ending December 31, 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнутся ли США в Иран до 2027 года?
Да
$54,777,509 Объем
$54,777,509 Объем
Да
$54,777,509 Объем
$54,777,509 Объем
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum ending major hostilities and fresh talks scheduled for August 4 on the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear constraints, has reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. The 2026 conflict featured joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and missile operations targeting Iranian military and leadership sites rather than troop deployments for territorial control, consistent with historical U.S. preferences for air and naval power in the region. Ongoing mediated negotiations, sanctions pathways, and the absence of announced ground force mobilizations or occupation objectives reduce near-term escalation risks, though renewed tensions or diplomatic breakdowns could still alter probabilities within the resolution window ending December 31, 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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