NASA and ESA planetary defense networks, including Sentry and the NEO Coordination Centre, report no tracked near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of a 1-megaton airburst through year-end, with risk lists showing only distant, low-probability encounters in later decades. This aligns with the low historical rate of such events—roughly once per several centuries—plus the absence of any qualifying bolides in the first nine months of 2026 per JPL fireball data. Trader consensus at 98.7% No reflects this verified lack of threats rather than speculation. Residual uncertainty stems from possible undetected long-period comets or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both would require rapid, high-confidence confirmation before December 31 to alter resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1% โอกาส
$117,333 ปริมาณ
$117,333 ปริมาณ
Feb 28, 2027
1% โอกาส
$117,333 ปริมาณ
$117,333 ปริมาณ
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA and ESA planetary defense networks, including Sentry and the NEO Coordination Centre, report no tracked near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of a 1-megaton airburst through year-end, with risk lists showing only distant, low-probability encounters in later decades. This aligns with the low historical rate of such events—roughly once per several centuries—plus the absence of any qualifying bolides in the first nine months of 2026 per JPL fireball data. Trader consensus at 98.7% No reflects this verified lack of threats rather than speculation. Residual uncertainty stems from possible undetected long-period comets or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both would require rapid, high-confidence confirmation before December 31 to alter resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$117,333วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA and ESA planetary defense networks, including Sentry and the NEO Coordination Centre, report no tracked near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of a 1-megaton airburst through year-end, with risk lists showing only distant, low-probability encounters in later decades. This aligns with the low historical rate of such events—roughly once per several centuries—plus the absence of any qualifying bolides in the first nine months of 2026 per JPL fireball data. Trader consensus at 98.7% No reflects this verified lack of threats rather than speculation. Residual uncertainty stems from possible undetected long-period comets or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both would require rapid, high-confidence confirmation before December 31 to alter resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070be91...NASA and ESA planetary defense networks, including Sentry and the NEO Coordination Centre, report no tracked near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of a 1-megaton airburst through year-end, with risk lists showing only distant, low-probability encounters in later decades. This aligns with the low historical rate of such events—roughly once per several centuries—plus the absence of any qualifying bolides in the first nine months of 2026 per JPL fireball data. Trader consensus at 98.7% No reflects this verified lack of threats rather than speculation. Residual uncertainty stems from possible undetected long-period comets or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both would require rapid, high-confidence confirmation before December 31 to alter resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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